Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/descente-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8225:1" rel="noopener">Descente Ltd (8114 JP)</a> earnings disappoints, buy the dip. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a> is buying for the long-term.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mgm-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:472:1" rel="noopener">MGM China Holdings (2282 HK)</a> has gained market share in mass table market, VIP, and total revenue. Yet MGM's FY24E EV/EBITDA is ~40% below its two-year forward average EV/EBITDA pre-Covid.</li>
<li>If you had a J-REIT portfolio, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sankei-real-estate-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35239:1" rel="noopener">Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP)</a> would go in and push something else out or smaller. I think one gets beta-plus, which is usually called alpha.</li>
</ul>


If Descente Ltd (8114 JP) earnings disappoints, buy the dip. Itochu Corp (8001 JP) is buying for the long-term.

MGM China Holdings (2282 HK) has gained market share in mass table market, VIP, and total revenue. Yet MGM's FY24E EV/EBITDA is ~40% below its two-year forward average EV/EBITDA pre-Covid.
If you had a J-REIT portfolio, Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP) would go in and push something else out or smaller. I think one gets beta-plus, which is usually called alpha.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Shinko Electric Industries, MGM China, Decente, Sankei Real Estate,

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>The Delisting Agreement should end the Atlantic bidding for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aareal-bank-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21584:1" rel="noopener">Aareal Bank AG (ARL GR)</a> saga. Atlantic has been hoovering shares in the market since last 7 June.</li>
<li>Atlantic probably owns c.90.8%. Based on daily trading volumes, it would take many days to acquire shares and reach the 95% barrier required to implement a squeeze-out.</li>
<li>Spread is 0.3%/2.3% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement on 8 December), not too bad for a quick buck, but liquidity is razor thin.</li>
</ul>


The Delisting Agreement should end the Atlantic bidding for Aareal Bank AG (ARL GR) saga. Atlantic has been hoovering shares in the market since last 7 June.
Atlantic probably owns c.90.8%. Based on daily trading volumes, it would take many days to acquire shares and reach the 95% barrier required to implement a squeeze-out.
Spread is 0.3%/2.3% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement on 8 December), not too bad for a quick buck, but liquidity is razor thin.


Advent & CenterBridge/​Aareal Bank AG: Delisting Offer

<ul>
<li>All conditions of the takeover offer have been fulfilled after the ECB approved the acquisition of a majority stake in Aareal. Settlement will take place by 7 June.</li>
<li>The shares closed 3.33% higher vs. prior trading session, above the offer price(!). Aareal is trading at an undemanding 0.6x P/BV and 10.7x NTM Fwd P/E. No dividend is expected.</li>
<li>The bidders specifically left open the possibility of a squeeze-out/delisting. If the 90% threshold is confirmed, I believe Atlantic will compulsorily acquire the remaining shares at €33/share.</li>
</ul>


All conditions of the takeover offer have been fulfilled after the ECB approved the acquisition of a majority stake in Aareal. Settlement will take place by 7 June.
The shares closed 3.33% higher vs. prior trading session, above the offer price(!). Aareal is trading at an undemanding 0.6x P/BV and 10.7x NTM Fwd P/E. No dividend is expected.
The bidders specifically left open the possibility of a squeeze-out/delisting. If the 90% threshold is confirmed, I believe Atlantic will compulsorily acquire the remaining shares at €33/share.


Advent & CenterBridge/​Aareal Bank AG: All Conditions Met

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices.</li>
<li>Based on current share prices, there are no changes for the DAX index. However, there could be multiple changes for the MDAX and SDAX indices.</li>
<li>I have also discussed the index implications for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-ing-h-c-f-porsche-aktiengesellschaft" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36343:1" rel="noopener">Porsche AG (P911 GR)</a> IPO.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices.
Based on current share prices, there are no changes for the DAX index. However, there could be multiple changes for the MDAX and SDAX indices.
I have also discussed the index implications for the Porsche AG (P911 GR) IPO.


DAX/​​​MDAX/​​​SDAX Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Porsche AG IPO Makes Things Interesting

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We have completed roughly half of the 20-day Reference Period for the DAX Equity Indices family for the September 2022 Rebalance.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices.</li>
<li>Three names could move from SDAX to MDAX while the SDAX index could see another 4 ADDs/DELETEs.</li>
</ul>


We have completed roughly half of the 20-day Reference Period for the DAX Equity Indices family for the September 2022 Rebalance.
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices.
Three names could move from SDAX to MDAX while the SDAX index could see another 4 ADDs/DELETEs.


DAX/​​MDAX/​​SDAX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Final Expectations

Germany

Aareal Bank AG offers structured real estate financing, property management, and information technology consulting services for the real estate industry. Aareal operates in Europe and North America.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Aareal Bank AG (ARL GR)

Last Week In Event SPACE: Shinko Electric Industries, MGM China, Decente, Sankei Real Estate,

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Advent & CenterBridge/Aareal Bank AG: Delisting Offer

Atlantic's acquisition of Aareal Bank AG shares may come to an end with the Delisting Agreement, as it currently owns around 90.8% and needs to...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Advent & CenterBridge/Aareal Bank AG: All Conditions Met

All offer requirements have now been met, and the acquisition offer will be settled by June 7th. Shareholders who accepted the offer will get €33...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

DAX/MDAX/SDAX Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Porsche AG IPO Makes Things Interesting

Porsche AG's IPO of preferred shares is expected to start trading shortly and there could be interesting index implications for this stock in the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

DAX/MDAX/SDAX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Final Expectations

Delivery Hero has to climb one rank to get into DAX. MDAX and SDAX could see multiple index changes. Takkt's recent negative momentum could have...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Last Week In Event SPACE: Shinko Electric Industries, MGM China, Decente, Sankei Real Estate,

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Advent & CenterBridge/​Aareal Bank AG: Delisting Offer

​Atlantic's acquisition of Aareal Bank AG shares may come to an end with the Delisting Agreement, as it currently owns around 90.8% and needs to...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Advent & CenterBridge/​Aareal Bank AG: All Conditions Met

All offer requirements have now been met, and the acquisition offer will be settled by June 7th. Shareholders who accepted the offer will get €33...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

DAX/​​​MDAX/​​​SDAX Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Porsche AG IPO Makes Things Interesting

Porsche AG's IPO of preferred shares is expected to start trading shortly and there could be interesting index implications for this stock in the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

DAX/​​MDAX/​​SDAX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Final Expectations

Delivery Hero has to climb one rank to get into DAX. MDAX and SDAX could see multiple index changes. Takkt's recent negative momentum could have...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Advent & CenterBridge/Aareal Bank AG: Delisting Offer

Atlantic's acquisition of Aareal Bank AG shares may come to an end with the Delisting Agreement, as it currently owns around 90.8% and needs to...

Advent & CenterBridge/Aareal Bank AG: All Conditions Met

DAX/MDAX/SDAX Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Porsche AG IPO Makes Things Interesting

DAX/MDAX/SDAX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Final Expectations