Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

S&P BSE SENSEX Index / Technical Analysis

S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY)

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.</li>
<li>We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.
We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.


Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Britannia Industries: Britannia’s Q4FY23 net revenue grew by 11% YoY vs our expectation of 14%</li><li>Volume growth was c.3% (four-year CAGR at 4%)</li><li>BRIT continued to strengthen its market leadership, led by (1) distribution and marketing initiatives (2) portfolio innovation and (3) cost efficiencies</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Britannia Industries: Britannia’s Q4FY23 net revenue grew by 11% YoY vs our expectation of 14%Volume growth was c.3% (four-year CAGR at 4%)BRIT continued to strengthen its market leadership, led by (1) distribution and marketing initiatives (2) portfolio innovation and (3) cost efficienciesContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Britannia Industries, ABB India, Marico, Bharat Forge, DCB Bank

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

<ul>
<li>India's strong growth projections are widely agreed upon, therefore warranting a deeper analysis of the key factors driving this growth, to identify potential deviations from projections.</li>
<li>The Industrials sector, supported by government initiatives, plays a critical role in the growth of the Indian economy and is currently benefiting from a strong tailwind.</li>
<li>While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abb-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8703:1" rel="noopener">ABB India Ltd (ABB IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/polycab-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27877:1" rel="noopener">Polycab India (POLYCAB IN)</a> are compelling investment ideas, caution is advised for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siemens-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6440:1" rel="noopener">Siemens Ltd (SIEM IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/havells-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9158:1" rel="noopener">Havells India (HAVL IN)</a>.  </li>
</ul>


India's strong growth projections are widely agreed upon, therefore warranting a deeper analysis of the key factors driving this growth, to identify potential deviations from projections.
The Industrials sector, supported by government initiatives, plays a critical role in the growth of the Indian economy and is currently benefiting from a strong tailwind.
While ABB India Ltd (ABB IN) and Polycab India (POLYCAB IN) are compelling investment ideas, caution is advised for Siemens Ltd (SIEM IN) and Havells India (HAVL IN).  


<ul><li>The NHAI ordering stayed below the FY23 target, competitive intensity cooling-off, commodities stable: In Q4FY23, the NHAI awarded 74 projects, of which 55 were HAM projects worth INR 455bn and 16 were EPC projects worth INR 215bn</li><li>With this, the NHAI awarded c.3,750 km in FY23 (vs a target of 6,500 km), with 75 HAM projects worth INR 655bn and 31 EPC projects worth INR 361bn</li><li>Competitive intensity cooled off with average L1 costs at a 5.6% premium over the average NHAI costs in Q4FY23</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The NHAI ordering stayed below the FY23 target, competitive intensity cooling-off, commodities stable: In Q4FY23, the NHAI awarded 74 projects, of which 55 were HAM projects worth INR 455bn and 16 were EPC projects worth INR 215bnWith this, the NHAI awarded c.3,750 km in FY23 (vs a target of 6,500 km), with 75 HAM projects worth INR 655bn and 31 EPC projects worth INR 361bnCompetitive intensity cooled off with average L1 costs at a 5.6% premium over the average NHAI costs in Q4FY23Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Industrials -  Stable Awards, Pick-Up in Execution

Industrials - Stable Awards, Pick-Up in Execution

India

ABB India Limited is a leading technology company specializing in electrification, motion, process automation, and robotics. It provides industrial systems and solutions that optimize power, enhance industrial productivity, and enable a more sustainable future across factories, utilities, rail, and infrastructure. The company was incorporated in 1949 and is headquartered in Bengaluru, Karnataka, India.

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ABB India (ABB IN)

Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Seeing broad-based improvement in India #SENSEX -- overweight/add exposure. We still recommend a tactical overweight to ACWI defensives with $ACWI...

Vermilion Research

HSIE Results Daily: Britannia Industries, ABB India, Marico, Bharat Forge, DCB Bank

Britannia Industries: Britannia’s Q4FY23 net revenue grew by 11% YoY vs our expectation of 14%. Volume growth was c.3% (four-year CAGR at 4%)

HDFC Securities

India Industrials | Riding the Tailwind

India's strong growth projections require deeper analysis. The industrials sector plays a critical role. ABB IN and POLYCAB IN are compelling,...

Pranav Bhavsar

Industrials - Stable Awards, Pick-Up in Execution

In Q4FY23, the NHAI awarded 74 projects, of which 55 were HAM projects worth INR 455bn and 16 were EPC projects worth INR 215bn

HDFC Securities

Industrials - Stable Awards, Pick-Up in Execution

In Q4FY23, the NHAI awarded 74 projects, of which 55 were HAM projects worth INR 455bn and 16 were EPC projects worth INR 215bn

HDFC Securities

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