Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index / Technical Analysis

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (TWSE INDEX)

<ul>
<li>Rallies appear to be stalling-out near logical resistances in the largest global equity markets. That includes 5670-5783 on SPX, 2690-2700 on Japan's TOPIX, and 4884 on Europe's EURO STOXX 50.</li>
<li>We continue to believe these indexes will roll over near current or marginally higher levels, fitting with our ongoing belief that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1-to-4-month pullback/consolidation.</li>
<li>Long-Term uptrend violations on global indexes and continued outperformance from defensive Sectors are our top concerns for global equities, though recession indicators and a Fed cutting cycle are also concerns.</li>
</ul>


Rallies appear to be stalling-out near logical resistances in the largest global equity markets. That includes 5670-5783 on SPX, 2690-2700 on Japan's TOPIX, and 4884 on Europe's EURO STOXX 50.
We continue to believe these indexes will roll over near current or marginally higher levels, fitting with our ongoing belief that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1-to-4-month pullback/consolidation.
Long-Term uptrend violations on global indexes and continued outperformance from defensive Sectors are our top concerns for global equities, though recession indicators and a Fed cutting cycle are also concerns.


Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Pick of the Week (PoW): POW calls delivered an astounding monthly strike rate of 92% in Feb’24.</li><li>Calls that successfully achieved their target were Coal India (10%) and ACC (10%) Axis Top Picks: We are proud to share that our Axis Top Picks basket delivered impressive returns of 46% in the last one year, beating the benchmark Nifty 50 index (27% return over the same period) by a wide margin.</li><li>In Feb’24, the basket inched up further by 1.8%. A few picks that reported excellent returns included SBI (15.5%), Varun Beverage (9.7%), Coal India (7.4%), TVS Motor (7.2%), and Lupin (7.1%). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pick of the Week (PoW): POW calls delivered an astounding monthly strike rate of 92% in Feb’24.Calls that successfully achieved their target were Coal India (10%) and ACC (10%) Axis Top Picks: We are proud to share that our Axis Top Picks basket delivered impressive returns of 46% in the last one year, beating the benchmark Nifty 50 index (27% return over the same period) by a wide margin.In Feb’24, the basket inched up further by 1.8%. A few picks that reported excellent returns included SBI (15.5%), Varun Beverage (9.7%), Coal India (7.4%), TVS Motor (7.2%), and Lupin (7.1%). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Axis Research Scorecard Report for Feb 2024

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We see global equities (MSCI ACWI) going through a pause/pullback amid short-term breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and global sovereign 10-year yields.</li>
<li>A rising DXY and climbing yields is a near-term headwind, and we could continue to see more choppy price action in the weeks ahead.</li>
<li>With that said, as long as the DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and ACWI-US is above $98, we would view pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
</ul>


We see global equities (MSCI ACWI) going through a pause/pullback amid short-term breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and global sovereign 10-year yields.
A rising DXY and climbing yields is a near-term headwind, and we could continue to see more choppy price action in the weeks ahead.
With that said, as long as the DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and ACWI-US is above $98, we would view pullbacks as buying opportunities.


Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare

<ul><li>The Pharma companies under our coverage are likely to report aggregate Revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of 17.4%/23.8%/25.2% YoY in Q2FY24E.</li><li>The growth is likely to be led by value-added new launches, market share expansion, and strong momentum in the Indian market.</li><li>A high double-digit growth in the US market was led by gRevlimid and other value-added launches despite intense competition and low singledigit growth witnessed in the basic generic business. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Pharma companies under our coverage are likely to report aggregate Revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of 17.4%/23.8%/25.2% YoY in Q2FY24E.The growth is likely to be led by value-added new launches, market share expansion, and strong momentum in the Indian market.A high double-digit growth in the US market was led by gRevlimid and other value-added launches despite intense competition and low singledigit growth witnessed in the basic generic business. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul>
<li>Global equities under pressure; we discussed in our August 3,2023 Int'l Compass how it could be the start of a ~15% pullback in $ACWI, which would put it at $84-$85.</li>
<li>We also discussed how it is possible that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the major $93 support level (which it tested today).</li>
<li>If the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY remain below their respective resistance levels, we remain buyers on this pullback to $93 on ACWI-US.</li>
</ul>


Global equities under pressure; we discussed in our August 3,2023 Int'l Compass how it could be the start of a ~15% pullback in $ACWI, which would put it at $84-$85.
We also discussed how it is possible that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the major $93 support level (which it tested today).
If the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY remain below their respective resistance levels, we remain buyers on this pullback to $93 on ACWI-US.


10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys

India

Abbott India Limited is a publicly listed subsidiary of Abbott Laboratories, operating as a significant pharmaceutical company in India. It develops, manufactures, and markets science-based healthcare products across various therapeutic areas, including women's health, gastroenterology, metabolics, central nervous system, and vaccines. The company was incorporated on August 22, 1944, and is headquartered in Mumbai, Maharashtra, India.

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Abbott India (BOOT IN)

Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

Expecting Downside Ahead $ACWI $SPX; Stick With Defensive Sectors; Downgrading Taiwan $EWT $TSM to Market Weight; Global Discretionary vs. Staples...

Vermilion Research

Axis Research Scorecard Report for Feb 2024

In Feb’24, the basket inched up further by 1.8%. A few picks that reported excellent returns included SBI (15.5%), Varun Beverage (9.7%), Coal...

Axis Direct

Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare

Pause/pullback underway in $ACWI, but as long as the $DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and $ACWI is above...

Vermilion Research

Pharma - Q2FY24 - Earnings Preview

The Pharma companies under our coverage are likely to report aggregate Revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of 17.4%/23.8%/25.2% YoY in Q2FY24E.

Axis Direct

10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys

Test of Key Supports: $93 on $ACWI, $47.50 on $ACWX, $70 on $EFA, 4200 on EURO $STOXX 50. As long as 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX and $DXY remain...

Vermilion Research

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