Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI,ACWI ex-U.S.,EAFE, and EM) remain bearish with YTD downtrends intact. Until these indexes reverse downtrends, we are bearish and view bounces as bear market rallies.</li>
<li>Major non-U.S. countries appear to be much further along in the bottoming process, a potential sign that U.S. indexes could take a back seat once global equities finally bottom.</li>
<li>Indexes that have not made a new low since March: Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small, Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50, and China's MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US).</li>
</ul>


Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI,ACWI ex-U.S.,EAFE, and EM) remain bearish with YTD downtrends intact. Until these indexes reverse downtrends, we are bearish and view bounces as bear market rallies.
Major non-U.S. countries appear to be much further along in the bottoming process, a potential sign that U.S. indexes could take a back seat once global equities finally bottom.
Indexes that have not made a new low since March: Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small, Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50, and China's MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US).


Hang Seng, MSCI China Near Major Base Breakouts; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's in Hong Kong, China, & Japan

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p><em><strong>The following is an in-depth review of Japanese retail in the last 18 months covering all the main formats and categories, providing a quick way to see an overview of all the key trends and winners and losers in Japanese retailing now and going forward.</strong></em></p><p>FY2020 was an anomaly and one that businesses everywhere will want to forget and never repeat. There was more than enough pain among Japan’s top retailers last year, but equally some formats did surprisingly well given the circumstances.</p><p>For most, work-from-home was the single most important factor in determining a chain’s fortunes. City-centre stores and shopping centres offering mostly discretionary shopping have been hit hard, as have convenience stores.</p><p>But those chains selling essentials, healthcare, electronics and, most importantly, food, all saw their fortunes improve. The pandemic has also revealed the strong, dynamic players and exposed the weaker ones. Oh, and everyone needs to be online.</p>

The following is an in-depth review of Japanese retail in the last 18 months covering all the main formats and categories, providing a quick way to see an overview of all the key trends and winners and losers in Japanese retailing now and going forward.FY2020 was an anomaly and one that businesses everywhere will want to forget and never repeat. There was more than enough pain among Japan’s top retailers last year, but equally some formats did surprisingly well given the circumstances.For most, work-from-home was the single most important factor in determining a chain’s fortunes. City-centre stores and shopping centres offering mostly discretionary shopping have been hit hard, as have convenience stores.But those chains selling essentials, healthcare, electronics and, most importantly, food, all saw their fortunes improve. The pandemic has also revealed the strong, dynamic players and exposed the weaker ones. Oh, and everyone needs to be online.

The Polarising Pandemic in Japanese Retail

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• LARGE CAP RESULTS - 14th APRIL •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/635/original/image_32488738921618434736177.png?1618434737" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200635"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>RESULTS</strong> - The percentage of positive Results Scores continues to fall, with only 39% of the 116 results reported on Wednesday. There were only three positives among large caps, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)</a>, which has changed its year-end limiting comparability. There was no revision to the company's now six-month-old forecasts. Shoe retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abc-mart-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3213:1" rel="noopener">ABC Mart (2670 JP)</a> fared less well but is optimistic about FY22.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/644/original/image_16911018231618435000838.png?1618435002" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200644"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/646/original/image_24286058841618435028922.png?1618435030" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200646"></figure><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• LARGE CAP FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 14th APRIL •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/649/original/image_3948594651618435133716.png?1618435135" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200649"></figure><p><strong>REVISIONS/FORECASTS</strong> - Bullishness abounds for FY22, particularly amongst the many Restaurant Sector companies, of which coffee house <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doutor-nichires-holdings-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3096:1" rel="noopener">Doutor Nichires (3087 JP) </a>would be our value pick. Erstwhile E-Commerce darling <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kitanotatsujin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6126:1" rel="noopener">Kitanotatsujin (2930 JP)</a> was the only negatively-scoring large-cap, foreseeing yet more margin erosion. The shares remain overvalued at 36 EV/TTM OP.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/652/original/image_67668075561618435352425.png?1618435353" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200652"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/655/original/image_87740698871618435386254.png?1618435387" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200655"></figure>

• LARGE CAP RESULTS - 14th APRIL •Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsRESULTS - The percentage of positive Results Scores continues to fall, with only 39% of the 116 results reported on Wednesday. There were only three positives among large caps, including Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP), which has changed its year-end limiting comparability. There was no revision to the company's now six-month-old forecasts. Shoe retailer ABC Mart (2670 JP) fared less well but is optimistic about FY22.• LARGE CAP FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 14th APRIL •REVISIONS/FORECASTS - Bullishness abounds for FY22, particularly amongst the many Restaurant Sector companies, of which coffee house Doutor Nichires (3087 JP) would be our value pick. Erstwhile E-Commerce darling Kitanotatsujin (2930 JP) was the only negatively-scoring large-cap, foreseeing yet more margin erosion. The shares remain overvalued at 36 EV/TTM OP.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/​​​​​​​14 - Finding Value in ABC-MART & Doutor Nichires

<p><strong>The following is an in-depth review of the retail sector by format with a brief overview of incomes and consumption trends and metrics before that. For any investor looking at the Japanese consumer/retail space, this insight will provide a rapid overview of all the major trends.</strong></p><p>2020 was a year to remember, although not for good reasons. While the news was overwhelmingly negative given the devastation that the pandemic caused to so many lives, for Japan as a country the experience could become a catalyst to spur positive change.</p><p>No matter how much we might never wish to repeat the last 12 months, those governments and companies that learn from the experience will be better positioned whenever a new pandemic emerges.</p><p>Department stores, convenience stores, and most fashion chains had a horrible year as so many people stayed away from major shopping areas, but many other retailers actually had stellar years, with further upside still to come. </p>

The following is an in-depth review of the retail sector by format with a brief overview of incomes and consumption trends and metrics before that. For any investor looking at the Japanese consumer/retail space, this insight will provide a rapid overview of all the major trends.2020 was a year to remember, although not for good reasons. While the news was overwhelmingly negative given the devastation that the pandemic caused to so many lives, for Japan as a country the experience could become a catalyst to spur positive change.No matter how much we might never wish to repeat the last 12 months, those governments and companies that learn from the experience will be better positioned whenever a new pandemic emerges.Department stores, convenience stores, and most fashion chains had a horrible year as so many people stayed away from major shopping areas, but many other retailers actually had stellar years, with further upside still to come. 

Japan Retail Full Review 2020-2021: Some Retail Sectors Outperform in a Pandemic

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;">Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is cloud service provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakus-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29200:1" rel="noopener">Rakus (3923 JP)</a> and conglomerate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ichigo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11386:1" rel="noopener">Ichigo (2337 JP)</a> </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/165/315/original/2020-10-15_05-50-54.png?1602708663" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="165315"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/165/316/original/2020-10-15_05-48-45.png?1602708676" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="165316"></figure></section><div style="text-align: center;" class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>58 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 41% Positive / 10% Neutral / 48% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -0.5 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -14.5% Quarter YoY / -8.6% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -3.9ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 33%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>33 Annual • 10 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 45% Positive / 6% Neutral / 48% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 40% Positive / 20% Neutral / 40% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -4.0 point</p></li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is cloud service provider Rakus (3923 JP) and conglomerate Ichigo (2337 JP) Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATS58 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 41% Positive / 10% Neutral / 48% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -0.5 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -14.5% Quarter YoY / -8.6% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -3.9ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 33%
33 Annual • 10 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 45% Positive / 6% Neutral / 48% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 40% Positive / 20% Neutral / 40% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -4.0 point


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​14 - ABC Mart, USEN-NEXT, Saizeriya, Ichigo, Rakus

Japan

ABC-MART, INC. plans, develops, wholesales, and retails shoes.  The Company also plans and develops brand name shoes such as VANS and G.T. HAWKINS.  ABC-Mart imports and wholesales shoes, apparel, bags, and sundries as well.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

ABC Mart (2670 JP)

Hang Seng, MSCI China Near Major Base Breakouts; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's in Hong Kong, China, & Japan

Hong Kong's Hang Seng and China's $MCHI and $KWEB are near major base breakouts. We are watching is 22,700 on Hang Seng and $56.60 on MCHI; we are...

Vermilion Research

The Polarising Pandemic in Japanese Retail

A complete review of the Japanese retail sector in the last 18 months, format by format, category by category, providing key trends and winners &...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/14 - Finding Value in ABC-MART & Doutor Nichires

RESULTS - The percentage of positive Results Scores continues to fall, with only 39% of the 116 results reported on Wednesday.

Campbell Gunn

Japan Retail Full Review 2020-2021: Some Retail Sectors Outperform in a Pandemic

An in-depth update for investors in Japan's retail and consumer space on Japan's retail sector by retail type as well as a review of the impact of...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/14 - ABC Mart, USEN-NEXT, Saizeriya, Ichigo, Rakus

Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is cloud service provider Rakus (3923 JP) and conglomerate Ichigo (2337 JP)

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hang Seng, MSCI China Near Major Base Breakouts; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's in Hong Kong, China, & Japan

Hong Kong's Hang Seng and China's $MCHI and $KWEB are near major base breakouts. We are watching is 22,700 on Hang Seng and $56.60 on MCHI; we are...

Vermilion Research

The Polarising Pandemic in Japanese Retail

A complete review of the Japanese retail sector in the last 18 months, format by format, category by category, providing key trends and winners &...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/​​​​​​​14 - Finding Value in ABC-MART & Doutor Nichires

RESULTS - The percentage of positive Results Scores continues to fall, with only 39% of the 116 results reported on Wednesday.

Campbell Gunn

Japan Retail Full Review 2020-2021: Some Retail Sectors Outperform in a Pandemic

An in-depth update for investors in Japan's retail and consumer space on Japan's retail sector by retail type as well as a review of the impact of...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​14 - ABC Mart, USEN-NEXT, Saizeriya, Ichigo, Rakus

Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is cloud service provider Rakus (3923 JP) and conglomerate Ichigo (2337 JP)

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/14 - Finding Value in ABC-MART & Doutor Nichires

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/14 - ABC Mart, USEN-NEXT, Saizeriya, Ichigo, Rakus