Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Turmoil in Turkey and a collapsing lira has led to a breakout in the USD and global equity market weakness. Emerging and developed markets outside the U.S. are getting hit considerably harder than the U.S. given concerns over European bank exposure and EM contagion. The absence of international equity market strength remains a top concern for near-term performance of U.S. markets.  In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups within the U.S. Consumer Discretionary and Data Processing &amp; Outsourcing Services areas.

Turmoil in Turkey and a collapsing lira has led to a breakout in the USD and global equity market weakness. Emerging and developed markets outside the U.S. are getting hit considerably harder than the U.S. given concerns over European bank exposure and EM contagion. The absence of international equity market strength remains a top concern for near-term performance of U.S. markets.  In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups within the U.S. Consumer Discretionary and Data Processing &amp; Outsourcing Services areas.

Complete top-down and bottom-up technical analysis of the U.S. Consumer Discretionary Sector.  Charts highlighted:  AMZN, NFLX, COLM, PVH, UAA, FOSL, GOOS, GIII, TJX, BURL, AEO, ANF, BBY, M, URBN, RL, LUXTY, LE, NKE, WWW, DECK, SHOO, CROX, RCKY, WEYS, MAR, HLT, LQ, ILG, CHH, H, IHG, WYNN, LVS, MLCO, BYD, PNK, YUM, DPZ, TXRH, CAKE, NDLS, and DNKN.

Complete top-down and bottom-up technical analysis of the U.S. Consumer Discretionary Sector.  Charts highlighted:  AMZN, NFLX, COLM, PVH, UAA, FOSL, GOOS, GIII, TJX, BURL, AEO, ANF, BBY, M, URBN, RL, LUXTY, LE, NKE, WWW, DECK, SHOO, CROX, RCKY, WEYS, MAR, HLT, LQ, ILG, CHH, H, IHG, WYNN, LVS, MLCO, BYD, PNK, YUM, DPZ, TXRH, CAKE, NDLS, and DNKN.

U.S. Consumer Discretionary Sector: Complete Technical Analysis

<ul><li>Retail stocks are breaking out en masse from technical bottom patterns, marking the reversal of well-established downtrends. This industry-wide move is visible in the Retail ETF, XRT (below). We view this as a buying opportunity.</li><li>From a Group perspective, many of the stronger breakouts/reversals are visible in: Teenage Retailers, Children’s Apparel Retailers, and Auto Dealers.</li><li>We now view retailers as a market weight, and in today’s report we highlight our favorite technical set-ups, including: AEO, ANF, AN, BBY, BIG, BKE, BURL, CATO, CONN, CWH, DG, DLTH, DLTR, EXPR, GPI, GPS, OLLI, PLCE, ROST, and TIF.</li></ul>

Retail stocks are breaking out en masse from technical bottom patterns, marking the reversal of well-established downtrends. This industry-wide move is visible in the Retail ETF, XRT (below). We view this as a buying opportunity.From a Group perspective, many of the stronger breakouts/reversals are visible in: Teenage Retailers, Children’s Apparel Retailers, and Auto Dealers.We now view retailers as a market weight, and in today’s report we highlight our favorite technical set-ups, including: AEO, ANF, AN, BBY, BIG, BKE, BURL, CATO, CONN, CWH, DG, DLTH, DLTR, EXPR, GPI, GPS, OLLI, PLCE, ROST, and TIF.

U.S. Retailers Are Bottoming -- Add Exposure

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

Abercrombie & Fitch Co Cl A / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Abercrombie & Fitch has reported its first-quarter results for fiscal year 2025, delivering performance that exceeded initial projections in terms of both revenue and earnings.</li><li>The company's net sales reached a record $1.1 billion, marking an 8% increase compared to the previous year, exceeding the anticipated range of 4% to 6%.</li><li>The operating margin achieved was 9.3%, and earnings per share came in at $1.59, both surpassing initial guidance.</li></ul>

Abercrombie & Fitch has reported its first-quarter results for fiscal year 2025, delivering performance that exceeded initial projections in terms of both revenue and earnings.The company's net sales reached a record $1.1 billion, marking an 8% increase compared to the previous year, exceeding the anticipated range of 4% to 6%.The operating margin achieved was 9.3%, and earnings per share came in at $1.59, both surpassing initial guidance.

Abercrombie & Fitch Co.: An Insight into its Marketing & Digital Technology Investments & Other Major Drivers

<ul><li>Abercrombie & Fitch Company delivered strong financial performance in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024, marking a successful turnaround and growth trajectory driven by robust sales, improved operating efficiencies, and strategic investments.</li><li>The period ended with notable financial achievements including a 9% increase in net sales year-over-year, translating to $1.58 billion.</li><li>Excluding the impact of the 53rd week in 2023, the net sales growth was an even more impressive 14%.</li></ul>

Abercrombie & Fitch Company delivered strong financial performance in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024, marking a successful turnaround and growth trajectory driven by robust sales, improved operating efficiencies, and strategic investments.The period ended with notable financial achievements including a 9% increase in net sales year-over-year, translating to $1.58 billion.Excluding the impact of the 53rd week in 2023, the net sales growth was an even more impressive 14%.

Abercrombie & Fitch Quietly Built A Retail Empire — And Just Fired Its Biggest Growth Cannon Yet!

United States

Abercrombie & Fitch Co.  a specialty retailer that operates stores and direct-to-consumer operations. Through these channels, the Company sells: casual sportswear apparel, including knit and woven shirts, graphic t-shirts, fleece, jeans and woven pants, shorts, sweaters, and outerwear; personal care products; and accessories for men, women and kids.

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Abercrombie & Fitch Co Cl A (ANF US)

USD Breakout; Foreign Markets Reeling

Turmoil in Turkey and a collapsing lira has led to a breakout in the USD and global equity market weakness. Emerging and developed markets outside...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Consumer Discretionary Sector: Complete Technical Analysis

Complete top-down and bottom-up technical analysis of the U.S. Consumer Discretionary Sector. Charts highlighted: AMZN, NFLX, COLM, PVH,...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Retailers Are Bottoming -- Add Exposure

Retail stocks are breaking out en masse from technical bottom patterns, marking the reversal of well-established downtrends. This industry-wide...

Vermilion Research

Abercrombie & Fitch Co.: An Insight into its Marketing & Digital Technology Investments & Other Major Drivers

Abercrombie & Fitch has reported its first-quarter results for fiscal year 2025, delivering performance that exceeded initial projections in...

Baptista Research

Abercrombie & Fitch Quietly Built A Retail Empire — And Just Fired Its Biggest Growth Cannon Yet!

Abercrombie & Fitch Company delivered strong financial performance in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024, marking a successful turnaround...

Baptista Research

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