Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Adani names are seeing new news and commentary. SEBI is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-regulator-probing-some-adani-offshore-deals-possible-rule-violations-2023-04-01/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">probing offshore deals</a> for rules violations, SEBI filed an interim report Sunday with the Court, Cements are refinancing US$4bn.</li>
<li>GQG's Jain was interviewed by Bloomberg TV in NY saying he sees his Adani basket being a "multi-bagger in five years." </li>
<li>Assuming growth and margins equivalent to peer max rates, all profits reinvested, and 100% gain in stock price in 5yrs, NP CAGR=33%, 2028 EV/EBITDA average of four names is 29.4x. </li>
</ul>


The Adani names are seeing new news and commentary. SEBI is probing offshore deals for rules violations, SEBI filed an interim report Sunday with the Court, Cements are refinancing US$4bn.
GQG's Jain was interviewed by Bloomberg TV in NY saying he sees his Adani basket being a "multi-bagger in five years." 
Assuming growth and margins equivalent to peer max rates, all profits reinvested, and 100% gain in stock price in 5yrs, NP CAGR=33%, 2028 EV/EBITDA average of four names is 29.4x. 


GQG Calls Adani Names 5Yr "Multi-Baggers" - It Works at 30% EPS CAGR if You Torture the Numbers

Equity Analyst, Event-driven, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst, Event-driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50 and NIFTY 100 indices in the September 2023 rebalance.</li>
<li>The NIFTY Next 50 methodology was supposed to change in June 2023 but this has been kept on hold for now. This change could still take place before September 2023.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for index changes under both the existing methodology and the proposed new methodology.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50 and NIFTY 100 indices in the September 2023 rebalance.
The NIFTY Next 50 methodology was supposed to change in June 2023 but this has been kept on hold for now. This change could still take place before September 2023.
In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for index changes under both the existing methodology and the proposed new methodology.


Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 23: 5 ADDs/DELs for NIFTY Next 50 Unless the Methodology Changes

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 Indices in the December 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>In July, we saw the deletion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)</a> from several indices in this family which triggered multiple intra-review index changes.</li>
<li>At present, I do not see any changes for the SENSEX index but I see seven ADDs/DELs for BSE 100 and five ADDs/DELs for BSE 200.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 Indices in the December 2023 Rebalance.
In July, we saw the deletion of HDFC Limited (HDFC IN) from several indices in this family which triggered multiple intra-review index changes.
At present, I do not see any changes for the SENSEX index but I see seven ADDs/DELs for BSE 100 and five ADDs/DELs for BSE 200.


Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Dec 23: 7 Changes for BSE 100 and 5 Changes for BSE 200

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELETEs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 Indices in the December 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>At present, I do not see any changes for the SENSEX index. For the BSE 100 and BSE 200 indices I see six and five changes respectively.</li>
<li>Some of these changes are different from those expected in my last insight. However, the changes expected in <em>this</em> insight will be my final expectations for the December 2023 Rebalance.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELETEs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 Indices in the December 2023 Rebalance.
At present, I do not see any changes for the SENSEX index. For the BSE 100 and BSE 200 indices I see six and five changes respectively.
Some of these changes are different from those expected in my last insight. However, the changes expected in this insight will be my final expectations for the December 2023 Rebalance.


Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Dec 23: Bandhan Bank Could Underperform State Bank

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Power Grid Corporation Of India / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Bank</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpse-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28191:1" rel="noopener">CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN)</a> and a bunch of other indices will be implemented at the close of trading today.</li>
<li>Depending on the index, there are constituent changes, changes to the number of shares and free float, plus capping changes. Put together, there is a lot of flow and impact.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade will be in excess of US$1bn. Add in the futures &amp; options expiry and volumes will be extremely high in the last 30 minutes of trading.</li>
</ul>


The rebalance of the NIFTY, Nifty Next 50, NSE Nifty Bank, CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN) and a bunch of other indices will be implemented at the close of trading today.
Depending on the index, there are constituent changes, changes to the number of shares and free float, plus capping changes. Put together, there is a lot of flow and impact.
The round-trip trade will be in excess of US$1bn. Add in the futures &amp; options expiry and volumes will be extremely high in the last 30 minutes of trading.


NIFTY Family Index Rebalance: Flows at the Close Today + F&O Expiry

India

ACC Limited  manufactures a range of cements and blended cements. The Company also manufactures gypsum and refractory products such as Brown Tabular Alumina. The Company provides turnkey and application consulting services for setting up and operating cement plants and refractories. The Company owns cement plants throughout India.

ACC Ltd (ACC IN)

GQG Calls Adani Names 5Yr "Multi-Baggers" - It Works at 30% EPS CAGR if You Torture the Numbers

This is an update on the Adani Names where GQG Partners purchased a US$1.8bn stake from the Promoters themselves. They are up 25% in a month. Which...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 23: 5 ADDs/DELs for NIFTY Next 50 Unless the Methodology Changes

The index changes for the NIFTY index for September 2023 could be announced in the next couple of weeks. This might be a good time to revisit our...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Dec 23: 7 Changes for BSE 100 and 5 Changes for BSE 200

All else equal, if Wipro's average share price for the remainder of the reference period is more than 17% lower than the latest price, the company...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Dec 23: Bandhan Bank Could Underperform State Bank

The BSE SENSEX and BSE 100 index changes for Dec 23 could be announced in a few days. This might be good time to revisit Quiddity's final...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

NIFTY Family Index Rebalance: Flows at the Close Today + F&O Expiry

The rebalance of the NIFTY family of indices will be implemented at the close today. The round-trip trade is around US$1bn and volumes at the close...

Brian Freitas

GQG Calls Adani Names 5Yr "Multi-Baggers" - It Works at 30% EPS CAGR if You Torture the Numbers

This is an update on the Adani Names where GQG Partners purchased a US$1.8bn stake from the Promoters themselves. They are up 25% in a month. Which...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 23: 5 ADDs/DELs for NIFTY Next 50 Unless the Methodology Changes

The index changes for the NIFTY index for September 2023 could be announced in the next couple of weeks. This might be a good time to revisit our...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Dec 23: 7 Changes for BSE 100 and 5 Changes for BSE 200

All else equal, if Wipro's average share price for the remainder of the reference period is more than 17% lower than the latest price, the company...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Dec 23: Bandhan Bank Could Underperform State Bank

The BSE SENSEX and BSE 100 index changes for Dec 23 could be announced in a few days. This might be good time to revisit Quiddity's final...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

NIFTY Family Index Rebalance: Flows at the Close Today + F&O Expiry

The rebalance of the NIFTY family of indices will be implemented at the close today. The round-trip trade is around US$1bn and volumes at the close...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Dec 23: 7 Changes for BSE 100 and 5 Changes for BSE 200

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Dec 23: Bandhan Bank Could Underperform State Bank