IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-hospitality-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:913:1" rel="noopener">Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP)</a>’s EGM and trust scheme meeting will take place on 12 September. The effective date is 12 October with a payment date of 19 October.</li>
<li>The offer comprises S$0.70 cash per share + permitted distributions (estimated 1.356 cents). The IFA considers the scheme consideration to be fair and reasonable.  </li>
<li>This is a done deal. For a 19 October payment, the gross and annualised spread of the offer (inc. permitted DPU) S$0.714 per unit is 1.9% and 12.1%, respectively. </li>
</ul>



Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP)’s EGM and trust scheme meeting will take place on 12 September. The effective date is 12 October with a payment date of 19 October.
The offer comprises S$0.70 cash per share + permitted distributions (estimated 1.356 cents). The IFA considers the scheme consideration to be fair and reasonable.  
This is a done deal. For a 19 October payment, the gross and annualised spread of the offer (inc. permitted DPU) S$0.714 per unit is 1.9% and 12.1%, respectively. 


Fraser Hospitality Trust’s Scheme Meeting on 12 September

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-hospitality-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:913:1" rel="noopener">Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP)</a> announced a privatisation proposal from Frasers Property Limited at S$0.70 cash per share + permitted distributions (estimated 1.2961 cents).  </li>
<li>The offer is the culmination of a strategic review announced on 8 April. The offer price is attractive in comparison to historical multiples, precedent transactions and historical unit prices.</li>
<li>At the last close and for the September end effective date, the gross and annualised spread to the total offer price of S$0.713 per unit is 3.3% and 11.1%, respectively. </li>
</ul>



Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP) announced a privatisation proposal from Frasers Property Limited at S$0.70 cash per share + permitted distributions (estimated 1.2961 cents).  
The offer is the culmination of a strategic review announced on 8 April. The offer price is attractive in comparison to historical multiples, precedent transactions and historical unit prices.
At the last close and for the September end effective date, the gross and annualised spread to the total offer price of S$0.713 per unit is 3.3% and 11.1%, respectively. 


Fraser Hospitality Trust’s Privatisation Offer from Frasers Property Limited

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<p>As regular readers of the series on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/matsumotokiyoshi-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2259:1" rel="noopener">Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co., Ltd. (3088 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cocokara-fine-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15447:1" rel="noopener">Cocokara Fine (3098 JP)</a> over the past nearly two years will know, I have expected Cocokara to benefit on the exchange ratio. </p><p>I thought the ratio that was reached - 1.7 Matsukiyo shares for every share of Cocokara - was a little light, and not just because the ratio announced was lower than the closing price pre-announcement. </p><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr><td colspan="3" style="width: 76.3636px;"><h2>A History of Smartkarma Coverage on the Event</h2></td></tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.3636px;"><h3><strong>Date</strong></h3></td>
<td style="width: 101.818px;"><h3><strong>Author</strong></h3></td>
<td style="width: 502.727px;"><h3><strong>Title</strong></h3></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.3636px;">20 May 2019</td>
<td style="width: 101.818px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/michael-causton" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2415" rel="noopener">Michael Causton</a> </td>
<td style="width: 502.727px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/matsukiyo-and-cocokara-fine-tie-to-shake-up-drugstore-sector" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:29890" rel="noopener">Matsukiyo and Cocokara Fine Tie to Shake up Drugstore Sector</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.3636px;">4 June 2019</td>
<td style="width: 101.818px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> </td>
<td style="width: 502.727px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cocokara-fine-cocokara" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30197" rel="noopener">Cocokara Fine は Cocokara いいね*</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.3636px;">12 June 2019</td>
<td style="width: 101.818px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/michael-causton" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2415" rel="noopener">Michael Causton</a> </td>
<td style="width: 502.727px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/drug-fuelled-marriages-and-macho-shachos-in-japan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30346" rel="noopener">Drug-Fuelled Marriages and Macho Shachos* in Japan</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.3636px;">15 Aug 2019</td>
<td style="width: 101.818px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> </td>
<td style="width: 502.727px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cocokara-3098-going-with-matsukiyo-3088-but-ratio-overextended" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:31733" rel="noopener">Cocokara (3098) Going With MatsuKiyo (3088) But Ratio Overextended</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.3636px;">16 Aug 2019</td>
<td style="width: 101.818px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/mio-kato" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:713" rel="noopener">Mio Kato</a> </td>
<td style="width: 502.727px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/matsukiyo-cocokara-merger-quantamental-analysis-shows-matsukiyo-in-fact-is-the-best-fit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:31793" rel="noopener">Matsukiyo-Cocokara Merger: Quantamental Analysis Shows Matsukiyo in Fact IS the Best Fit</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.3636px;">23 Aug 2019</td>
<td style="width: 101.818px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/mio-kato" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:713" rel="noopener">Mio Kato</a> </td>
<td style="width: 502.727px;"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/matsukiyo-no-loss-of-emphasis-on-profitability-looking-to-asean-for-growth" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:31947" rel="noopener">Matsukiyo: No Loss of Emphasis on Profitability, Looking to ASEAN for Growth</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.3636px;">29 Sep 2019</td>
<td style="width: 101.818px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/michael-causton" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2415" rel="noopener">Michael Causton</a> </td>
<td style="width: 502.727px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cocokara-and-matsukiyo-potential-competition-for-supermarkets-and-convenience-stores" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:32769" rel="noopener">Cocokara and Matsukiyo: Potential Competition for Supermarkets and Convenience Stores</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.3636px;">14 Jan 2020</td>
<td style="width: 101.818px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> </td>
<td style="width: 502.727px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gotta-go-with-cocokara" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:35799" rel="noopener">Gotta Go With Cocokara</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.3636px;">2 Feb 2020</td>
<td style="width: 101.818px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> </td>
<td style="width: 502.727px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cocokara-matsukiyo-disappointing-but-not-disappointing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36256" rel="noopener">Cocokara/MatsuKiyo - Disappointing But Not Disappointing</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.3636px;">13 Mar 2020</td>
<td style="width: 101.818px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/michael-causton" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2415" rel="noopener">Michael Causton</a> </td>
<td style="width: 502.727px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japanese-drugstores-with-maturity-comes-marriage" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37436" rel="noopener">Japanese Drugstores: With Maturity Comes Marriage</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.3636px;">23 Sep 2020</td>
<td style="width: 101.818px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> </td>
<td style="width: 502.727px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cocokara-matsukiyo-big-gains-since-delay-stay-long-both" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43539" rel="noopener">Cocokara/MatsuKiyo - Big Gains Since Delay, Stay Long Both</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.3636px;">2 Feb 2021</td>
<td style="width: 101.818px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> </td>
<td style="width: 502.727px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cocokara-matsukiyo-deal-finally-coming" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47717" rel="noopener">Cocokara/​MatsuKiyo Deal Finally Coming?</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.3636px;">28 Feb 2021</td>
<td style="width: 101.818px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> </td>
<td style="width: 502.727px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/matsukiyococokara-co-the-merger" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48652" rel="noopener">MatsukiyoCocokara &amp; Co - The Merger</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.3636px;">1 Mar 2021</td>
<td style="width: 101.818px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> </td>
<td style="width: 502.727px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/matsukiyococokara-merger-and-implied-forward-forecasts" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48679" rel="noopener">MatsuKiyoCocokara Merger and Implied Forward Forecasts</a> </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table><p>But it was a good deal for the combined business, and I came out bullish both before the announcement in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cocokara-matsukiyo-deal-finally-coming" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47717" rel="noopener">Cocokara/​MatsuKiyo Deal Finally Coming?</a> and afterwards in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/matsukiyococokara-co-the-merger" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48652" rel="noopener">MatsukiyoCocokara &amp; Co - The Merger</a> and the accompanying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/matsukiyococokara-merger-and-implied-forward-forecasts" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48679" rel="noopener">MatsuKiyoCocokara Merger and Implied Forward Forecasts</a>.</p><p>I had not seen comment of this deal, nor heard of any activism in the name, but was struck by the amount of volume which traded through terms after the announcement. </p><h3>Today There is NEW News of Activism in This Situation</h3><p>Today after the close, Singapore-based fund Hibiki Path Advisors <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210309006129/en/Hibiki-Path-Advisors-Opposes-to-the-Share-Exchange-Ratio-in-the-Merger-of-Matsumotokiyoshi-Holdings-Co.-Ltd.-and-cocokara-fine-Inc." target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> that it opposed the merger ratio of this combination.  </p><p>This is worth looking at, so I do.</p>

As regular readers of the series on Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co., Ltd. (3088 JP) and Cocokara Fine (3098 JP) over the past nearly two years will know, I have expected Cocokara to benefit on the exchange ratio. I thought the ratio that was reached - 1.7 Matsukiyo shares for every share of Cocokara - was a little light, and not just because the ratio announced was lower than the closing price pre-announcement. 
A History of Smartkarma Coverage on the Event

Date
Author
Title


20 May 2019

Michael Causton 

Matsukiyo and Cocokara Fine Tie to Shake up Drugstore Sector 


4 June 2019

Travis Lundy 

Cocokara Fine は Cocokara いいね* 


12 June 2019

Michael Causton 

Drug-Fuelled Marriages and Macho Shachos* in Japan 


15 Aug 2019

Travis Lundy 

Cocokara (3098) Going With MatsuKiyo (3088) But Ratio Overextended 


16 Aug 2019

Mio Kato 

Matsukiyo-Cocokara Merger: Quantamental Analysis Shows Matsukiyo in Fact IS the Best Fit 


23 Aug 2019

Mio Kato 
Matsukiyo: No Loss of Emphasis on Profitability, Looking to ASEAN for Growth


29 Sep 2019

Michael Causton 

Cocokara and Matsukiyo: Potential Competition for Supermarkets and Convenience Stores 


14 Jan 2020

Travis Lundy 

Gotta Go With Cocokara 


2 Feb 2020

Travis Lundy 

Cocokara/MatsuKiyo - Disappointing But Not Disappointing 


13 Mar 2020

Michael Causton 

Japanese Drugstores: With Maturity Comes Marriage 


23 Sep 2020

Travis Lundy 

Cocokara/MatsuKiyo - Big Gains Since Delay, Stay Long Both 


2 Feb 2021

Travis Lundy 

Cocokara/​MatsuKiyo Deal Finally Coming? 


28 Feb 2021

Travis Lundy 

MatsukiyoCocokara &amp; Co - The Merger 


1 Mar 2021

Travis Lundy 

MatsuKiyoCocokara Merger and Implied Forward Forecasts 

But it was a good deal for the combined business, and I came out bullish both before the announcement in Cocokara/​MatsuKiyo Deal Finally Coming? and afterwards in MatsukiyoCocokara &amp; Co - The Merger and the accompanying MatsuKiyoCocokara Merger and Implied Forward Forecasts.I had not seen comment of this deal, nor heard of any activism in the name, but was struck by the amount of volume which traded through terms after the announcement. Today There is NEW News of Activism in This SituationToday after the close, Singapore-based fund Hibiki Path Advisors announced that it opposed the merger ratio of this combination.  This is worth looking at, so I do.

Matsukiyo-Cocokara Situation Gets Its Activist Noise Started

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

Equity Bottom-Up

Two Key Industries Underpinning Singapore’s Strongest YTD Performers

<p>The <em>Slow Disintegration of What Was Accordia Golf Trust</em> is underway. </p><p>The vote is done. </p><p>The shares have traded in a narrow range since the first payment of S$0.0112/unit went ex- at the end of August (where you can see the step down from S$0.735-0.740 to S$0.725-0.730 level) and <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/AGT_-_Notice_of_Books_Closure_Distribution_Date_-_21_August_2020.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=628741" target="_blank" rel="noopener">has been paid</a>.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/161/038/original/Screenshot%202020-09-24%20at%204.06.09%20AM.png?1600891615" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="161038"></figure><p></p><p>What is left is JPY 65.2 billion less fees and contingencies. Or at least that is what it was.</p><p>After an announcement late last night, the JPY 65.2 billion of total consideration is now S$325,203,252 plus JPY 40.0 billion after the Manager announced that it had <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/AGT%20-%20Hedging%20Announcement_final_23.09.20.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=632569" target="_blank" rel="noopener">effected a S$/JPY hedge</a> for JPY 25.2 billion of the consideration for delivery on 29 September. That suggests that the delivery of payment on 15 October is about 40% fixed.</p><p>The managers say they are looking out for yen weakness (the chart below shows yen strengthening in the last several days). This news of a hedge will undoubtedly cause some owners some consternation. Hedging at SGDJPY 77.49 is not a terribly good rate given the cross never traded above 77.00 yesterday. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/161/037/original/Screenshot%202020-09-24%20at%203.40.52%20AM.png?1600891013" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="161037"></figure><div class="content-caption">source: tradingview.com, Quiddity</div><p>There are a few days left. </p><p>One needs to calculate the proceeds slightly differently because a portion of the proceeds have been hedged. One also has to take into consideration that their decision to hedge with bad execution lowers the amount of money available to sophisticated investors still holding the trade and the arb. </p><p>That's not great. </p><p>But the trade has some very interesting qualities. There are four more days to trade to get the First Tranche Distribution. </p><p>More below the fold. </p>

The Slow Disintegration of What Was Accordia Golf Trust is underway. The vote is done. The shares have traded in a narrow range since the first payment of S$0.0112/unit went ex- at the end of August (where you can see the step down from S$0.735-0.740 to S$0.725-0.730 level) and has been paid.What is left is JPY 65.2 billion less fees and contingencies. Or at least that is what it was.After an announcement late last night, the JPY 65.2 billion of total consideration is now S$325,203,252 plus JPY 40.0 billion after the Manager announced that it had effected a S$/JPY hedge for JPY 25.2 billion of the consideration for delivery on 29 September. That suggests that the delivery of payment on 15 October is about 40% fixed.The managers say they are looking out for yen weakness (the chart below shows yen strengthening in the last several days). This news of a hedge will undoubtedly cause some owners some consternation. Hedging at SGDJPY 77.49 is not a terribly good rate given the cross never traded above 77.00 yesterday. source: tradingview.com, QuiddityThere are a few days left. One needs to calculate the proceeds slightly differently because a portion of the proceeds have been hedged. One also has to take into consideration that their decision to hedge with bad execution lowers the amount of money available to sophisticated investors still holding the trade and the arb. That's not great. But the trade has some very interesting qualities. There are four more days to trade to get the First Tranche Distribution. More below the fold. 

Accordia Golf Gets Interesting - Main Payment Shortly Then Run The Residual

Singapore

Accordia Golf Trust is a business trust comprising of investments in golf course assets in Japan.

Accordia Golf Trust (AGT SP)

Fraser Hospitality Trust’s Scheme Meeting on 12 September

This is a done deal. For a 19 October payment, the annualised spread of the offer (inc. permitted DPU) S$0.714 per unit is 12.1%.

Arun George

Fraser Hospitality Trust’s Privatisation Offer from Frasers Property Limited

The offer price is attractive. At the last close and for the September end effective date, the annualised spread to the total offer price of...

Arun George

Matsukiyo-Cocokara Situation Gets Its Activist Noise Started

MatsuKiyo-Cocokara was not unlikely to get an activist as Oasis is in the register above 5%. Now it has one. But time is short, and the argument...

Travis Lundy

Two Key Industries Underpinning Singapore’s Strongest YTD Performers

Despite a challenging year for the regional stock market, 36 of Singapore’s 100 most traded stocks this year generated gains. More than half...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Accordia Golf Gets Interesting - Main Payment Shortly Then Run The Residual

The Slow Disintegration of What Was Accordia Golf Trust is

Travis Lundy