European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>According to Expansion, Amber Equity (I Squared/TDR consortium vehicle), has signal its readiness to counteroffer between €10.65-€11 per <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applus-services-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21249:1" rel="noopener">Applus Services SA (APPS SM)</a> share and drop minimum acceptance condition to 50.01%.</li>
<li>There are three scenarios now: Amber withdraws (unlikely), final sealed envelope auction or splitting the bounty at the highest offer price, the latter seems increasingly likely considering similar past situations.</li>
<li>At current market prices, IRR by year 8 would be 13.3%. The bidders must indeed be contemplating M&amp;A and economies of scale to boost returns.</li>
</ul>


According to Expansion, Amber Equity (I Squared/TDR consortium vehicle), has signal its readiness to counteroffer between €10.65-€11 per Applus Services SA (APPS SM) share and drop minimum acceptance condition to 50.01%.
There are three scenarios now: Amber withdraws (unlikely), final sealed envelope auction or splitting the bounty at the highest offer price, the latter seems increasingly likely considering similar past situations.
At current market prices, IRR by year 8 would be 13.3%. The bidders must indeed be contemplating M&amp;A and economies of scale to boost returns.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our October 26, 2023 Int'l Compass we discussed our expectations for a bounce in global equities (MSCI ACWI). So far, that has been the low.</li>
<li>Then, in our November 2, 2023 report, we discussed the bullish implications of the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency), before discussing expectations for a year-end rally on Nov.16</li>
<li>We see a massive opportunity in global gold/silver miners with gold nearing multi-year breakout. Also buy opportunities: Utilities in Europe, UK, and India; Materials, Industrials, Transportation, Real Estate, and Technology</li>
</ul>


In our October 26, 2023 Int'l Compass we discussed our expectations for a bounce in global equities (MSCI ACWI). So far, that has been the low.
Then, in our November 2, 2023 report, we discussed the bullish implications of the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency), before discussing expectations for a year-end rally on Nov.16
We see a massive opportunity in global gold/silver miners with gold nearing multi-year breakout. Also buy opportunities: Utilities in Europe, UK, and India; Materials, Industrials, Transportation, Real Estate, and Technology


Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).</li>
<li>On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.</li>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).
On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.
MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.


Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) continues to test major support at $90.50-$91.50, though no decisive break yet; as long as this support area holds, we remain constructive on global equities.</li>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to test $37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) are testing supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively</li>
<li>Remain overweight and add exposure to Japan; the TOPIX remains in a 1.5-year RS uptrend (vs. MSCI ACWI), and continues to hold above 5-month support at 2200-2215</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) continues to test major support at $90.50-$91.50, though no decisive break yet; as long as this support area holds, we remain constructive on global equities.
MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to test $37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) are testing supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively
Remain overweight and add exposure to Japan; the TOPIX remains in a 1.5-year RS uptrend (vs. MSCI ACWI), and continues to hold above 5-month support at 2200-2215


Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to Japan; Buys in Insurance, Services, Tech, Staples, Utilities

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>After the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackmores-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:928:1" rel="noopener">Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU)</a> Scheme Meeting result was announced earlier today, post-close the S&amp;P/ASX team announced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ventia-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34917:1" rel="noopener">Ventia (VNT AU)</a> would replace it on 21 July at the close.</li>
<li>This is not that surprising. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/janaghan-jeyakumar-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3173" rel="noopener">Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA</a> expected it in June, and it was a super-close second recently for him for the Sep rebalance. </li>
<li>Given the shareholder structure and flow dynamics, it's worth taking a closer look.</li>
</ul>


After the Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU) Scheme Meeting result was announced earlier today, post-close the S&amp;P/ASX team announced Ventia (VNT AU) would replace it on 21 July at the close.
This is not that surprising. Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA expected it in June, and it was a super-close second recently for him for the Sep rebalance. 
Given the shareholder structure and flow dynamics, it's worth taking a closer look.


Ventia Services (VNT) Selected to Join ASX 200 - Not A Surprise

Spain

ACS, Actividades de Construccion y Servicios, S.A. is an engineering and contracting company that develops civil and industrial infrastructures. The Company provides Civil Works Construction, Greenfield Concession Development, Industrial Services (electricity, oil and gas) and Environmental Services (waste treatment and facility management).

ACS, Actividades de Construcción y Servicios (ACS SM)

ACS, Actividades de Construcción y Servicios

ACS, Actividades de Construcción y Servicios (ACS SM)

Three Scenarios in a Bidding Battle

Amber Equity is ready to counteroffer for Applus Services shares. It is increasingly likely a sealed envelope auction or splitting the bounty at...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

Our bullish outlook on global equities $ACWI remains intact. We are also upgrading Brazil $EWZ to overweight. We continue to expect a rally into...

Vermilion Research

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to Japan; Buys in Insurance, Services, Tech, Staples, Utilities

Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to #Japan; $TOPIX continues to hold above 5-month support at 2200-2215. Next down supports being tested at 4000...

Vermilion Research

Ventia Services (VNT) Selected to Join ASX 200 - Not A Surprise

Ventia (VNT AU) was chosen to join the S&P ASX 200 on Friday's close, replacing Blackmores. It was not that much of a surprise. There have been...

Travis Lundy

Three Scenarios in a Bidding Battle

​Amber Equity is ready to counteroffer for Applus Services shares. It is increasingly likely a sealed envelope auction or splitting the bounty at...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

Our bullish outlook on global equities $ACWI remains intact. We are also upgrading Brazil $EWZ to overweight. We continue to expect a rally into...

Vermilion Research

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

​The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to Japan; Buys in Insurance, Services, Tech, Staples, Utilities

Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to #Japan; $TOPIX continues to hold above 5-month support at 2200-2215. Next down supports being tested at 4000...

Vermilion Research

Ventia Services (VNT) Selected to Join ASX 200 - Not A Surprise

Ventia (VNT AU) was chosen to join the S&P ASX 200 on Friday's close, replacing Blackmores. It was not that much of a surprise. There have been...

Travis Lundy

Amber Equity is ready to counteroffer for Applus Services shares. It is increasingly likely a sealed envelope auction or splitting the bounty at...

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...