Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone / Credit

Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone (ADSEZ IN)

<ul>
<li>Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) has released FY 2024-25 results that were largely stable y-o-y.</li>
<li>Although cargo volume growth underperformed expectations, revenue rose 14% in line with projections, while the 16% EBITDA increase exceeded guidance.</li>
<li>APSEZ generated slightly positive FCF, and net adjusted leverage was stable at an acceptable 2.8x.</li>
</ul>


Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) has released FY 2024-25 results that were largely stable y-o-y.
Although cargo volume growth underperformed expectations, revenue rose 14% in line with projections, while the 16% EBITDA increase exceeded guidance.
APSEZ generated slightly positive FCF, and net adjusted leverage was stable at an acceptable 2.8x.


Adani Ports - Earnings Flash - FY 2024-25 Results - Lucror Analytics

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Strong FY25 growth, but bulk cargo (~90%) dominates, keeping revenue per ton lower versus peers.</li>
<li>Targeting 10% volume and 50% logistics growth by FY27, with heavy CAPEX and Navkar integration focus.</li>
<li>Trades at ~28x EV/EBITDA, ~40x P/E — far higher than Adani Ports; promoter dilution likely to meet public float norms.</li>
</ul>


Strong FY25 growth, but bulk cargo (~90%) dominates, keeping revenue per ton lower versus peers.
Targeting 10% volume and 50% logistics growth by FY27, with heavy CAPEX and Navkar integration focus.
Trades at ~28x EV/EBITDA, ~40x P/E — far higher than Adani Ports; promoter dilution likely to meet public float norms.


JSW Infra: Expansion Plans Prudent; Valuation Multiples Remain Elevated

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: MGM China, Adani Ports</li>
<li>In the US last Thursday, March housing starts came in below estimates at negative 11.4% m-o-m (-5.4% e / 9.8% revised p) to an annualised 1.32 mn units (1.42 mn e / 1.49 mn revised p), amid high inventory levels and uncertainty over building-material costs.</li>
<li>That said, building permits rose 1.6% m-o-m (-0.6% e / -1.0% p) to an annualised 1.48 mn units (1.45 mn e / 1.46 mn p).</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: MGM China, Adani Ports
In the US last Thursday, March housing starts came in below estimates at negative 11.4% m-o-m (-5.4% e / 9.8% revised p) to an annualised 1.32 mn units (1.42 mn e / 1.49 mn revised p), amid high inventory levels and uncertainty over building-material costs.
That said, building permits rose 1.6% m-o-m (-0.6% e / -1.0% p) to an annualised 1.48 mn units (1.45 mn e / 1.46 mn p).


Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>NQXT brings structural leverage: 35 MMT of throughput, 65% EBITDA margin, and zero-debt funding makes this a clean, long-cycle infrastructure asset. Pro forma FY27E EV/EBITDA compresses to 12.6x; P/E 19x.</li>
<li>FY25 guidance upgraded: Revenue now pegged at Rs29,000–31,000 Cr (vs Rs26,000–27,000 Cr earlier), EBITDA at Rs18,800–18,900 Cr, and cargo volume at 460–480 MMT — upper band implies a strong Q4.</li>
<li>Trades at 12.6x FY27E EV/EBITDA, APSEZ offers growth, operating leverage, and global strategic footprint and ramping port utilization. Likely disruptions in trade flows post Trump tariffs is a risk.</li>
</ul>


NQXT brings structural leverage: 35 MMT of throughput, 65% EBITDA margin, and zero-debt funding makes this a clean, long-cycle infrastructure asset. Pro forma FY27E EV/EBITDA compresses to 12.6x; P/E 19x.
FY25 guidance upgraded: Revenue now pegged at Rs29,000–31,000 Cr (vs Rs26,000–27,000 Cr earlier), EBITDA at Rs18,800–18,900 Cr, and cargo volume at 460–480 MMT — upper band implies a strong Q4.
Trades at 12.6x FY27E EV/EBITDA, APSEZ offers growth, operating leverage, and global strategic footprint and ramping port utilization. Likely disruptions in trade flows post Trump tariffs is a risk.


Adani Ports: Riding the Global Ports Wave with Scale, Margin, and Visibility

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Seazen Group, Adani Ports, Cikarang Listrindo, Vedanta Resources</li>
<li>In the US, the February CPI came in below estimates at 0.2% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.5% p) and 2.8% y-o-y (2.9% e / 3.0% p). Core CPI (excluding food and energy) eased to 0.2% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.4% p) and 3.1% y-o-y (3.2% e / 3.3% p).</li>
<li>US Treasuries ended the day lower, as an initial rally following the lower-than-expected CPI inflation numbers was quickly reversed amid concerns over the escalating trade war and its impact on future inflation.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Seazen Group, Adani Ports, Cikarang Listrindo, Vedanta Resources
In the US, the February CPI came in below estimates at 0.2% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.5% p) and 2.8% y-o-y (2.9% e / 3.0% p). Core CPI (excluding food and energy) eased to 0.2% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.4% p) and 3.1% y-o-y (3.2% e / 3.3% p).
US Treasuries ended the day lower, as an initial rally following the lower-than-expected CPI inflation numbers was quickly reversed amid concerns over the escalating trade war and its impact on future inflation.


India

Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited (APSEZ) is India's largest private port operator and an integrated transport utility. The company develops, operates, and maintains port infrastructure, offering services for various cargo types including dry bulk, liquid, crude, and containers, along with comprehensive logistics solutions. APSEZ is headquartered in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, and was founded in 1998.

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Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone (ADSEZ IN)

Adani Ports - Earnings Flash - FY 2024-25 Results - Lucror Analytics

Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) has released FY 2024-25 results that were largely stable y-o-y. Although cargo volume growth...

Lucror Analytics

JSW Infra: Expansion Plans Prudent; Valuation Multiples Remain Elevated

Strong growth potential through FY27, but challenges remain with bulk cargo dominating revenue and high valuation compared to peers. Promoter...

Rahul Jain

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: MGM China, Adani Ports

Lucror Analytics

Adani Ports: Riding the Global Ports Wave with Scale, Margin, and Visibility

NQXT offers clean infrastructure asset with strong financials, while APSEZ shows growth potential and global footprint with attractive valuation...

Rahul Jain

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Seazen Group, Adani Ports, Cikarang Listrindo,...

Lucror Analytics

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Adani Ports - Earnings Flash - FY 2024-25 Results - Lucror Analytics

Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) has released FY 2024-25 results that were largely stable y-o-y. Although cargo volume growth...

Lucror Analytics

JSW Infra: Expansion Plans Prudent; Valuation Multiples Remain Elevated

Strong growth potential through FY27, but challenges remain with bulk cargo dominating revenue and high valuation compared to peers. Promoter...

Rahul Jain

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: MGM China, Adani Ports

Lucror Analytics

Adani Ports: Riding the Global Ports Wave with Scale, Margin, and Visibility

​NQXT offers clean infrastructure asset with strong financials, while APSEZ shows growth potential and global footprint with attractive valuation...

Rahul Jain

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Seazen Group, Adani Ports, Cikarang Listrindo,...

Lucror Analytics

NQXT offers clean infrastructure asset with strong financials, while APSEZ shows growth potential and global footprint with attractive valuation...