Decoding the Future of MENA Financial Markets, MENA Market Lab

Denis Collot

Decoding the Future of MENA Financial Markets

MENA Market Lab

Decoding the future of Middle East and North Africa Financial markets

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>OPEC+ confirms production hike’s pause.                                             </li><li>Moody’s upbeat on Saudi Arabia. S&amp;P downgraded Bahrain.</li><li>UAE, credit growth at record pace. SAR forward curve still pushing higher.</li></ul><div style="list-style-type: none;" aria-label="Post UFI"><div style="list-style-type: none;"><div style="list-style-type: none;"><div style="list-style-type: none;"><div style="list-style-type: none;"><div style="list-style-type: none;"><div><a href="https://substack.com/@deniscollot" target="_blank" aria-label="View Denis Collot's profile" rel="noopener"></a></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>

OPEC+ confirms production hike’s pause.                                             Moody’s upbeat on Saudi Arabia. S&amp;P downgraded Bahrain.UAE, credit growth at record pace. SAR forward curve still pushing higher.

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 23/May, U.S. crude inventories fell by 2.8m barrels (vs. expectations of a 1m barrel build). Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stockpiles unexpectedly fell.</li>
<li>The EIA reported a 101 Bcf storage build, slightly more than the 98 Bcf forecast. Storage levels are 3.9% above the five-year average.</li>
<li>Chevron will cut 800 Texas jobs in an effort to reduce its global workforce by 20%. TotalEnergies is selling its 12.5% Nigerian offshore stake to Shell for USD 510 million.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 23/May, U.S. crude inventories fell by 2.8m barrels (vs. expectations of a 1m barrel build). Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stockpiles unexpectedly fell.
The EIA reported a 101 Bcf storage build, slightly more than the 98 Bcf forecast. Storage levels are 3.9% above the five-year average.
Chevron will cut 800 Texas jobs in an effort to reduce its global workforce by 20%. TotalEnergies is selling its 12.5% Nigerian offshore stake to Shell for USD 510 million.


[ETP 2025/22] WTI Slips on Supply Glut Fears, Henry Hub Dips Amid Demand Drag

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/covestro-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21574:1" rel="noopener">Covestro AG (1COV GR)</a> has been the subject of a potential takeover from ADNOC since Bloomberg reported on 20 June. The last reported potential offer is €60/share (c.€11.3 billion).</li>
<li>ADNOC could be willing to offer €64.5 (7.1x EV/EBITDA on mid-cycle €2,110 million EBITDA), but Covestro is rumoured to seek €70/share (typical chemicals 6x on €2,675 million EBITDA, likely demanding).</li>
<li>Considering a takeout price of €60, gross spread is 11.7% and the shares are pricing a 64% probability of deal completion. I'd be long at €53/share, as downside seems limited.</li>
</ul>



Covestro AG (1COV GR) has been the subject of a potential takeover from ADNOC since Bloomberg reported on 20 June. The last reported potential offer is €60/share (c.€11.3 billion).
ADNOC could be willing to offer €64.5 (7.1x EV/EBITDA on mid-cycle €2,110 million EBITDA), but Covestro is rumoured to seek €70/share (typical chemicals 6x on €2,675 million EBITDA, likely demanding).
Considering a takeout price of €60, gross spread is 11.7% and the shares are pricing a 64% probability of deal completion. I'd be long at €53/share, as downside seems limited.


United Arab Emirates

ADNOC Drilling Company P.J.S.C. operates as a drilling company. The Company provides drilling and well construction services for conventional and unconventional reservoirs on land, sea, and artificial islands. ADNOC Drilling serves clients worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

ADNOC Drilling PJSC (ADNOCDRI UH)

Middle East FX: December 1st 2025

OPEC+ confirms production hike’s pause. Moody’s upbeat on Saudi Arabia. S&P downgraded Bahrain. UAE, credit growth at record pace. SAR forward...

MENA Market Lab

[ETP 2025/22] WTI Slips on Supply Glut Fears, Henry Hub Dips Amid Demand Drag

US crude inventories fell more than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles also dropped. Chevron to cut 800 Texas jobs, TotalEnergies...

Mint Finance

ADNOC/Covestro: Bargaining On

Covestro AG is potentially being taken over by ADNOC, with a potential offer of €60/share. Covestro is rumored to be seeking €70/share. The shares...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Middle East FX: December 1st 2025

OPEC+ confirms production hike’s pause. Moody’s upbeat on Saudi Arabia. S&P downgraded Bahrain. UAE, credit growth at record pace. SAR forward...

MENA Market Lab

[ETP 2025/22] WTI Slips on Supply Glut Fears, Henry Hub Dips Amid Demand Drag

​US crude inventories fell more than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles also dropped. Chevron to cut 800 Texas jobs, TotalEnergies...

Mint Finance

ADNOC/Covestro: Bargaining On

​Covestro AG is potentially being taken over by ADNOC, with a potential offer of €60/share. Covestro is rumored to be seeking €70/share. The shares...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

US crude inventories fell more than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles also dropped. Chevron to cut 800 Texas jobs, TotalEnergies...

Covestro AG is potentially being taken over by ADNOC, with a potential offer of €60/share. Covestro is rumored to be seeking €70/share. The shares...