European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/covestro-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21574:1" rel="noopener">Covestro AG (1COV GR)</a> has been the subject of a potential takeover from ADNOC since Bloomberg reported on 20 June. The last reported potential offer is €60/share (c.€11.3 billion).</li>
<li>ADNOC could be willing to offer €64.5 (7.1x EV/EBITDA on mid-cycle €2,110 million EBITDA), but Covestro is rumoured to seek €70/share (typical chemicals 6x on €2,675 million EBITDA, likely demanding).</li>
<li>Considering a takeout price of €60, gross spread is 11.7% and the shares are pricing a 64% probability of deal completion. I'd be long at €53/share, as downside seems limited.</li>
</ul>



Covestro AG (1COV GR) has been the subject of a potential takeover from ADNOC since Bloomberg reported on 20 June. The last reported potential offer is €60/share (c.€11.3 billion).
ADNOC could be willing to offer €64.5 (7.1x EV/EBITDA on mid-cycle €2,110 million EBITDA), but Covestro is rumoured to seek €70/share (typical chemicals 6x on €2,675 million EBITDA, likely demanding).
Considering a takeout price of €60, gross spread is 11.7% and the shares are pricing a 64% probability of deal completion. I'd be long at €53/share, as downside seems limited.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The BIG Risk is that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitsu-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16968:1" rel="noopener">Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP)</a> sells its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitsu-general-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2025:1" rel="noopener">Fujitsu General (6755 JP)</a> to someone in a below-market tender offer.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a> may still see more outperformance from its  latest buyback. But it's up ~29% since the company announced it was buying both the As and Bs. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning (2331 HK)</a>'s shares continue to edge up after its founder recently increased its stake. </li>
</ul>


The BIG Risk is that Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP) sells its stake in Fujitsu General (6755 JP) to someone in a below-market tender offer.

Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) may still see more outperformance from its  latest buyback. But it's up ~29% since the company announced it was buying both the As and Bs. 

Li Ning (2331 HK)'s shares continue to edge up after its founder recently increased its stake. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Fujitsu General, Swire Pacific, Li Ning, IJJT

Equity Analyst, Event-driven, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst, Event-driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity's estimates for the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices.</li>
<li>At present, I do not see any movements between the DAX and MDAX indices.</li>
<li>However, there could be two changes between the MDAX and SDAX index and there could be one more ADD/DEL for the SDAX index.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity's estimates for the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices.
At present, I do not see any movements between the DAX and MDAX indices.
However, there could be two changes between the MDAX and SDAX index and there could be one more ADD/DEL for the SDAX index.


Quiddity Leaderboard-DAX Jun 23: SMA Solar, Hochtief, Adtran, Aroundtown

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity's estimates for the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices.</li>
<li>Two changes could happen between DAX and MDAX while there could be one change between MDAX and SDAX.</li>
<li>There could be more changes for the MDAX and SDAX indices as a couple name are lurking close to the border.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity's estimates for the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices.
Two changes could happen between DAX and MDAX while there could be one change between MDAX and SDAX.
There could be more changes for the MDAX and SDAX indices as a couple name are lurking close to the border.


Quiddity Leaderboard-DAX Jun 23: Fresenius, Lufthansa, Covestro, Continental & Others

<ul>
<li>The index changes for the STOXX Europe Indices for the June 2022 Rebalance were announced yesterday. </li>
<li>There will be 11 Adds and 11 Deletes for the STOXX Europe 600 Index. Some of these changes will also be reflected in the EURO STOXX Index.</li>
<li>Below is a closer look at the Inclusion Parameters and price performance of the names involved in this Rebalance Event.</li>
</ul>


The index changes for the STOXX Europe Indices for the June 2022 Rebalance were announced yesterday. 
There will be 11 Adds and 11 Deletes for the STOXX Europe 600 Index. Some of these changes will also be reflected in the EURO STOXX Index.
Below is a closer look at the Inclusion Parameters and price performance of the names involved in this Rebalance Event.


STOXX Europe June 2022 Rebal: Focus on Wacker Chemie, Telefonica Deutschland, CD Projekt, and Nokian

Germany

Covestro AG manufactures polymers and high performance plastics.  The Company  manufactures, markets, and distributes coatings, adhesives, insulating materials, sealants,  polycarbonates, and polyurethanes. Covestro markets its products to industries including  automotive, construction, health, electronics, and medical engineering.

Covestro AG (1COV GR)

ADNOC/Covestro: Bargaining On

Covestro AG is potentially being taken over by ADNOC, with a potential offer of €60/share. Covestro is rumored to be seeking €70/share. The shares...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Fujitsu General, Swire Pacific, Li Ning, IJJT

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity Leaderboard-DAX Jun 23: SMA Solar, Hochtief, Adtran, Aroundtown

Deutsche Lufthansa AG needs its average share price in the reference period to be around 7% higher than the current price (i.e. average price...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard-DAX Jun 23: Fresenius, Lufthansa, Covestro, Continental & Others

Fresenius (FRE GR) and Deutsche Lufthansa AG (LHA GR) could move from MDAX to DAX while Covestro AG (1COV GR) and Continental AG (CON GR) could...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

STOXX Europe June 2022 Rebal: Focus on Wacker Chemie, Telefonica Deutschland, CD Projekt, and Nokian

STOXX Europe June 2022 Index changes have been confirmed. The estimated volume impacts seem low but historical performance is promising and paying...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

ADNOC/Covestro: Bargaining On

​Covestro AG is potentially being taken over by ADNOC, with a potential offer of €60/share. Covestro is rumored to be seeking €70/share. The shares...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Fujitsu General, Swire Pacific, Li Ning, IJJT

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity Leaderboard-DAX Jun 23: SMA Solar, Hochtief, Adtran, Aroundtown

Deutsche Lufthansa AG needs its average share price in the reference period to be around 7% higher than the current price (i.e. average price...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard-DAX Jun 23: Fresenius, Lufthansa, Covestro, Continental & Others

Fresenius (FRE GR) and Deutsche Lufthansa AG (LHA GR) could move from MDAX to DAX while Covestro AG (1COV GR) and Continental AG (CON GR) could...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

STOXX Europe June 2022 Rebal: Focus on Wacker Chemie, Telefonica Deutschland, CD Projekt, and Nokian

STOXX Europe June 2022 Index changes have been confirmed. The estimated volume impacts seem low but historical performance is promising and paying...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Covestro AG is potentially being taken over by ADNOC, with a potential offer of €60/share. Covestro is rumored to be seeking €70/share. The shares...