European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>ADNOC’s €62 per share bid for Covestro has 91.3% acceptance and antitrust clearance; the Foreign Subsidies Regulation review remains the gating item, with remedies on capital increase, guarantees, and IP.</li>
<li>At €58.74, Covestro trades 5.55% below €62, implying 24–30% annualized IRRs if FSR approval and closing arrive by year-end; a Q1’26 slip still screens ~18%; break downside approximates −22% today.</li>
<li>New buyers need a clean-up event: squeeze-out ≥95% or delisting/merger squeeze-out; DPLTA excluded until 2028. ADNOC needs ~6.7–7.0m shares to reach 95%, costing roughly €395–433m at €58.74–€62 post-approval and execution.</li>
</ul>


ADNOC’s €62 per share bid for Covestro has 91.3% acceptance and antitrust clearance; the Foreign Subsidies Regulation review remains the gating item, with remedies on capital increase, guarantees, and IP.
At €58.74, Covestro trades 5.55% below €62, implying 24–30% annualized IRRs if FSR approval and closing arrive by year-end; a Q1’26 slip still screens ~18%; break downside approximates −22% today.
New buyers need a clean-up event: squeeze-out ≥95% or delisting/merger squeeze-out; DPLTA excluded until 2028. ADNOC needs ~6.7–7.0m shares to reach 95%, costing roughly €395–433m at €58.74–€62 post-approval and execution.


Covestro / ADNOC: FSR Is the Hinge, Clean-Up the Catalyst

Covestro AG

Covestro / ADNOC: FSR Is the Hinge, Clean-Up the Catalyst