European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Adnoc/Covestro: Fresh Takeover Negotiations and Valuation Scenarios

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>ADNOC offers €62/share (54% premium), valuing Covestro at €11.7 billion, with high likelihood of completion despite regulatory and market conditions, closing expected in H2 2025.</li>
<li>Potential additional offer period will run until December 16. ADNOC partnership offers access to cheaper resources, and supports future growth amid sector challenges and consolidation opportunities in Europe.</li>
<li>The ADNOC acquisition offers a strong value realization opportunity for shareholders amidst market uncertainty. Gross spread is 6.7%. Long and accept offer.</li>
</ul>


ADNOC offers €62/share (54% premium), valuing Covestro at €11.7 billion, with high likelihood of completion despite regulatory and market conditions, closing expected in H2 2025.
Potential additional offer period will run until December 16. ADNOC partnership offers access to cheaper resources, and supports future growth amid sector challenges and consolidation opportunities in Europe.
The ADNOC acquisition offers a strong value realization opportunity for shareholders amidst market uncertainty. Gross spread is 6.7%. Long and accept offer.


Covestro AG

ADNOC/Covestro: Almost Game Over