Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>US Tech allocations have hit fresh all-time highs among active Global investors.  Never before have Global investors placed such a reliance on US Tech to drive returns</li>
<li>We find that increases in US Tech weights were driven by relative price gains, rather than any active rebalancing in favour of the sector.</li>
<li>In fact, active momentum is slowing.  Value, Yield and GARP investors have increased underweights and Growth investors have moved from overweight to underweight.  </li>
</ul>


US Tech allocations have hit fresh all-time highs among active Global investors.  Never before have Global investors placed such a reliance on US Tech to drive returns
We find that increases in US Tech weights were driven by relative price gains, rather than any active rebalancing in favour of the sector.
In fact, active momentum is slowing.  Value, Yield and GARP investors have increased underweights and Growth investors have moved from overweight to underweight.  


US Tech:  Record Allocations, Record Underweights.  Value Becoming Harder to Find

Cross Asset Strategy

Over 50% of allocations are in the US with the bulk of the remainder split between Japan, China &amp; HK and the major European nations.  The EMEA overweight is comprised mainly of the UK, Netherlands, France and Germany, with active managers running underweights in the US, China &amp; HK, Australia and Japan.UK allocations hover around their lowest levels in history, though managers remain stubbornly overweight compared to the MSCI AC World index.  A total of 62% of managers are overweight the UK at an average +1.88% above benchmark.  Global Value investors are approaching their largest ever overweight in UK stocks of 3.64% above benchmark.Another month, another slump in Japan exposure.  Average weights in Japan stand at an all-time low of 5.06% with 85.5% of funds exposed (another low). <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a> are the most widely held stocks, with 23% and 21% of funds holding a position.Tech exposure is at record highs, though this is matched by a record underweight of -0.47%.  Indeed, the percentage of funds who are overweight technology has fallen to below 50% for the first time since the end of 2018, a sign that Global managers are tilting their portfolios away from Tech.German Industrials allocations have hit a 4-year high as more Global investors add exposure to the sector. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deutsche-post-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21608:1" rel="noopener">Deutsche Post AG (DPW GR)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siemens-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21713:1" rel="noopener">Siemens AG (SIE GR)</a> were the key stocks behind the move, with 4.2% and 2.4% of funds adding exposure over the last 6-months.Alibaba has seen closures by some of the larger holders in our analysis, led by American Funds Capital World Fund (-$1.1bn) and New Economy Fund (-$451m).  Though closures have dominated, selected funds have opened exposure during this period of volatility, including Invesco's Global Focus Fund and Liontrust's Global Income Fund.

Over 50% of allocations are in the US with the bulk of the remainder split between Japan, China &amp; HK and the major European nations.  The EMEA overweight is comprised mainly of the UK, Netherlands, France and Germany, with active managers running underweights in the US, China &amp; HK, Australia and Japan.UK allocations hover around their lowest levels in history, though managers remain stubbornly overweight compared to the MSCI AC World index.  A total of 62% of managers are overweight the UK at an average +1.88% above benchmark.  Global Value investors are approaching their largest ever overweight in UK stocks of 3.64% above benchmark.Another month, another slump in Japan exposure.  Average weights in Japan stand at an all-time low of 5.06% with 85.5% of funds exposed (another low). Sony Corp (6758 JP) and KDDI Corp (9433 JP) are the most widely held stocks, with 23% and 21% of funds holding a position.Tech exposure is at record highs, though this is matched by a record underweight of -0.47%.  Indeed, the percentage of funds who are overweight technology has fallen to below 50% for the first time since the end of 2018, a sign that Global managers are tilting their portfolios away from Tech.German Industrials allocations have hit a 4-year high as more Global investors add exposure to the sector. Deutsche Post AG (DPW GR) and Siemens AG (SIE GR) were the key stocks behind the move, with 4.2% and 2.4% of funds adding exposure over the last 6-months.Alibaba has seen closures by some of the larger holders in our analysis, led by American Funds Capital World Fund (-$1.1bn) and New Economy Fund (-$451m).  Though closures have dominated, selected funds have opened exposure during this period of volatility, including Invesco's Global Focus Fund and Liontrust's Global Income Fund.

Global Fund Positioning Update:  Japan Lows, US Highs, UK Value Rotation, Tencent & Alibaba Exit

Latest News from the World’s Leading Innovators

Granite Bay Capital

An innovation focussed investment company

Granite Bay Capital is an innovation focussed investment company with a deep focus on the companies at the leading edge of innovation across major themes such as AI, ubiquitous computing, sustainability, automation and longevity.

Headline Developments On the back of the Epic v Apple case, documents were released highlighting that Google (GOOG) had considered buying Epic outright.  During the case, Epic Games outlined Google’s plans to develop “a series of internal projects to address the ‘contagion’ it perceived from efforts by Epic and others to offer consumers and developers competitive alternatives and has even contemplated buying some or all of Epic to squelch this threat”.

Headline Developments On the back of the Epic v Apple case, documents were released highlighting that Google (GOOG) had considered buying Epic outright.  During the case, Epic Games outlined Google’s plans to develop “a series of internal projects to address the ‘contagion’ it perceived from efforts by Epic and others to offer consumers and developers competitive alternatives and has even contemplated buying some or all of Epic to squelch this threat”.

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Last week, Figma held their annual Config together with an Analyst Day. Zero reference to the Claude Design debacle, Krieger's board resignation or the activist letter critiques. Very disappointing </li>
<li>The Config event keynote featured a slew of new product launches organized around “new creative materials” plus “intelligent tools”, an attempt to seamlessly blend design and coding </li>
<li>This quarter will test whether they can transition their new AI-credit consumption model into a durable, high-margin revenue stream without cannibalizing the seat business or blowing out costs. Let's see.</li>
</ul>


Last week, Figma held their annual Config together with an Analyst Day. Zero reference to the Claude Design debacle, Krieger's board resignation or the activist letter critiques. Very disappointing 
The Config event keynote featured a slew of new product launches organized around “new creative materials” plus “intelligent tools”, an attempt to seamlessly blend design and coding 
This quarter will test whether they can transition their new AI-credit consumption model into a durable, high-margin revenue stream without cannibalizing the seat business or blowing out costs. Let's see.


Figma Analyst Day. No Mention Of The Claude Design Debacle.

<ul>
<li>In Q1 2026, revenue grew 46% year-over-year to $333 million, accelerating from 40% last quarter and 38% in Q3.</li>
<li>Net dollar retention rate also increased to 139%, our highest rate in over 2 years. This is up 3 percentage points from last quarter.</li>
<li>In Q226, we expect revenue of $349 million,  implying 40% YoY growth. For FY2026, we expect revenue of $1.425 billion, implying 35% growth YoY, up $55 million from prior forecast</li>
</ul>


In Q1 2026, revenue grew 46% year-over-year to $333 million, accelerating from 40% last quarter and 38% in Q3.
Net dollar retention rate also increased to 139%, our highest rate in over 2 years. This is up 3 percentage points from last quarter.
In Q226, we expect revenue of $349 million,  implying 40% YoY growth. For FY2026, we expect revenue of $1.425 billion, implying 35% growth YoY, up $55 million from prior forecast


The Figma SaaSpocalypse. Are We There Yet?

United States

Adobe Systems Incorporated develops, markets, and supports computer software products and technologies.  The Company's products allow users to express and use information across all print and electronic media.  Adobe offers a line of application software products, type products, and content for creating, distributing, and managing information.

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Adobe Systems (ADBE US)

US Tech: Record Allocations, Record Underweights. Value Becoming Harder to Find

US Tech allocations have hit fresh all-time highs among active Global investors. Never before have Global investors placed such a reliance on US...

Steven Holden

Global Fund Positioning Update: Japan Lows, US Highs, UK Value Rotation, Tencent & Alibaba Exit

A detailed look at investor positioning among 380 active Global strategies, covering the major themes in country, sector and stock exposure.

Steven Holden

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #44

Headline Developments On the back of the Epic v Apple case, documents were released highlighting that Google (GOOG) had considered buying Epic...

Granite Bay Capital

Figma Analyst Day. No Mention Of The Claude Design Debacle.

Last week, Figma held their annual Config together with an Analyst Day. Zero reference to the Claude Design debacle, Krieger's board resignation or...

William Keating

The Figma SaaSpocalypse. Are We There Yet?

In Q226, we expect revenue of $349 million, implying 40% YoY growth. For FY2026, we expect revenue of $1.425 billion, implying 35% growth YoY, up...

William Keating

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