Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>SET expected to test resistance at 1,612 after crude oil prices plunged by more than 3%</li><li>Thailand Focus 2026 will highlight the new engines driving economic growth, which is expected to boost investor confidence.</li><li>The MPC is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 1.0% and may adopt a more positive view of Thailand's economic growth in 2026.</li></ul>

SET expected to test resistance at 1,612 after crude oil prices plunged by more than 3%Thailand Focus 2026 will highlight the new engines driving economic growth, which is expected to boost investor confidence.The MPC is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 1.0% and may adopt a more positive view of Thailand's economic growth in 2026.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. August 26, 2026

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>The 30-year US Treasury yield remained elevated at 5.2% amid concerns over tighter liquidity ahead, as the US Treasury plans to use its cash reserves in the Treasury General Account (TGA) to repurchase long-term bonds.</li><li>Commercial bank loans grew 0.1% MoM in July and 2.6% YTD, driven by stronger demand from both the private and public sectors.</li><li>We expect the SET Index to break below support at around 1,600 points due to external headwinds.</li></ul>

The 30-year US Treasury yield remained elevated at 5.2% amid concerns over tighter liquidity ahead, as the US Treasury plans to use its cash reserves in the Treasury General Account (TGA) to repurchase long-term bonds.Commercial bank loans grew 0.1% MoM in July and 2.6% YTD, driven by stronger demand from both the private and public sectors.We expect the SET Index to break below support at around 1,600 points due to external headwinds.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. August 25, 2026

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>ADVANC announced a dividend of Bt8.41/share for 2H25 plus a special dividend of Bt19.00/share, totaling Bt27.41/share (XD on February 27, 2026), implying an attractive 7.6% yield that should support the share price in the near term.</li><li>ADVANC posted 4Q25 core profit of Bt12,470mn (+35% YoY, +4% QoQ), beating our forecast by 5% due to a lower-than-expected effective tax rate.</li><li>Strong demand for the iPhone 17 lifted device sales to Bt13.7bn (+19% YoY, +53% QoQ), with GPM improving to 5.7% (vs. 6.0% in 4Q24 and 5.0% in 3Q25).</li></ul>

ADVANC announced a dividend of Bt8.41/share for 2H25 plus a special dividend of Bt19.00/share, totaling Bt27.41/share (XD on February 27, 2026), implying an attractive 7.6% yield that should support the share price in the near term.ADVANC posted 4Q25 core profit of Bt12,470mn (+35% YoY, +4% QoQ), beating our forecast by 5% due to a lower-than-expected effective tax rate.Strong demand for the iPhone 17 lifted device sales to Bt13.7bn (+19% YoY, +53% QoQ), with GPM improving to 5.7% (vs. 6.0% in 4Q24 and 5.0% in 3Q25).

ADVANCED INFO SERVICE Plc. (ADVANC): Strong 4Q25 Profit, Special Dividend Boosted Yield To 7.6%

<ul>
<li>SET expected to extend gains, supported by fund inflows ahead of Thailand Focus</li>
<li>The US may further expand buybacks of medium- to long-term Treasuries.</li>
<li>Based on five-year statistics (2021-25), the SET delivered an average return of +0.7% during Thailand Focus week (August 26-28, 2026), with an 80% probability of gains.</li>
</ul>


SET expected to extend gains, supported by fund inflows ahead of Thailand Focus
The US may further expand buybacks of medium- to long-term Treasuries.
Based on five-year statistics (2021-25), the SET delivered an average return of +0.7% during Thailand Focus week (August 26-28, 2026), with an 80% probability of gains.


Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. August 24, 2026

<ul><li>We maintain an Outperform rating on ADVANC, supported by attractive fundamentals, with an 11% upside to our fair value of Bt346 (required return 4.8%).</li><li>4Q25E earnings are expected to remain strong, driven by the mobile business and rising data usage.</li><li>We expect mobile services revenue to grow 5.2% YoY to Bt33.4bn (73% of total revenue), supported by a recovery in domestic purchasing power from the Khon La Khrueng scheme and stronger seasonal tourist SIM demand.</li></ul>

We maintain an Outperform rating on ADVANC, supported by attractive fundamentals, with an 11% upside to our fair value of Bt346 (required return 4.8%).4Q25E earnings are expected to remain strong, driven by the mobile business and rising data usage.We expect mobile services revenue to grow 5.2% YoY to Bt33.4bn (73% of total revenue), supported by a recovery in domestic purchasing power from the Khon La Khrueng scheme and stronger seasonal tourist SIM demand.

ADVANCED INFO SERVICE Plc. (ADVANC): Earnings Momentum Remains Strong in 4Q25E

Thailand

Advanced Info Service is Thailand's largest telecommunications and technology company, providing mobile phone services, including prepaid, postpaid, and 5G network services, along with mobile devices. The company also offers high-speed home broadband services under the AIS Fibre and 3BB brands, as well as digital services such as cloud solutions, IoT, digital payments, and enterprise solutions. Headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, the company was founded in 1986.

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Advanced Info Service (ADVANC-R TB)

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. August 26, 2026

SET expected to test resistance at 1,612 after crude oil prices plunged by more than 3% Thailand Focus 2026 will highlight the new engines driving...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. August 25, 2026

The 30-year US Treasury yield remained elevated at 5.2% amid concerns over tighter liquidity ahead, as the US Treasury plans to use its cash...

Krungthai XSpring

ADVANCED INFO SERVICE Plc. (ADVANC): Strong 4Q25 Profit, Special Dividend Boosted Yield To 7.6%

ADVANC posted 4Q25 core profit of Bt12,470mn (+35% YoY, +4% QoQ), beating our forecast by 5% due to a lower-than-expected effective tax rate.

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. August 24, 2026

SET expected to extend gains, supported by fund inflows ahead of Thailand Focus The US may further expand buybacks of medium- to long-term...

Krungthai XSpring

ADVANCED INFO SERVICE Plc. (ADVANC): Earnings Momentum Remains Strong in 4Q25E

We maintain an Outperform rating on ADVANC, supported by attractive fundamentals, with an 11% upside to our fair value of Bt346 (required return...

Krungthai XSpring

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