IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Total Access Communication / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Administrative Court has dismissed the Thai Consumers Council petition to impose an injunction on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> merger.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telenor-asa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22258:1" rel="noopener">Telenor ASA (TEL NO)</a> and CP Group are currently seeking clarification on certain NBTC conditions such as tariff adjustments and MVNOs network capacity. </li>
<li>Completion is targeted for 1Q23. The current share price ratio of 9.072x vs exchange ratio of 10.221x is attractive. Timing and tweaks to the exchange ratio are risks.</li>
</ul>


The Administrative Court has dismissed the Thai Consumers Council petition to impose an injunction on the Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)/True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) merger.

Telenor ASA (TEL NO) and CP Group are currently seeking clarification on certain NBTC conditions such as tariff adjustments and MVNOs network capacity. 
Completion is targeted for 1Q23. The current share price ratio of 9.072x vs exchange ratio of 10.221x is attractive. Timing and tweaks to the exchange ratio are risks.


DTAC/True Merger: The Court Dismisses the Consumer Council’s Petition

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

Singtel (Singapore Telecommunications) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This insight covers 68 ASEAN utilities, each boasting a market cap greater than US$500mn. </li>
<li>Countries covered include Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> remains highly elevated, and is a short against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a>, and perhaps with some <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-telecommunications" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20:1" rel="noopener">Singtel (ST SP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


This insight covers 68 ASEAN utilities, each boasting a market cap greater than US$500mn. 
Countries covered include Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.

Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) remains highly elevated, and is a short against Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB), and perhaps with some Singtel (ST SP).


<ul>
<li>"The conditions precedent to the VTO have not been satisfied within one year from 22 November 2021 ... the parties have declined to carry out the VTO."</li>
<li>This statement was lifted from Telenor's (the major shareholder of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a>) brief announcement. Telenor/CP Group aim to complete the transaction within the first quarter of 2023</li>
<li>This appears a cop-out on behalf of both Tender Offerors (Telenor &amp; CP Group), who probably could have pushed for an extension.  And why weren't the scrip terms addressed?</li>
</ul>


"The conditions precedent to the VTO have not been satisfied within one year from 22 November 2021 ... the parties have declined to carry out the VTO."
This statement was lifted from Telenor's (the major shareholder of Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)) brief announcement. Telenor/CP Group aim to complete the transaction within the first quarter of 2023
This appears a cop-out on behalf of both Tender Offerors (Telenor &amp; CP Group), who probably could have pushed for an extension.  And why weren't the scrip terms addressed?


Disaster As VTOs Cancelled Under DTAC/True Merger

<ul>
<li>Telenor and CP Group will proceed with the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> merger but without the VTO due to missing the VTO conditions precedent deadline.</li>
<li>The likely real reason for the VTO cancellation was the realisation that the VTO prices were too generous, particularly in the context of the NBTC's harsh conditions.</li>
<li>Completion is targeted for 1Q23. The current share price ratio of 8.750x vs the exchange ratio of 10.221x is attractive. Timing and potential tweaks to the exchange ratio are risks. </li>
</ul>


Telenor and CP Group will proceed with the Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)/True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) merger but without the VTO due to missing the VTO conditions precedent deadline.
The likely real reason for the VTO cancellation was the realisation that the VTO prices were too generous, particularly in the context of the NBTC's harsh conditions.
Completion is targeted for 1Q23. The current share price ratio of 8.750x vs the exchange ratio of 10.221x is attractive. Timing and potential tweaks to the exchange ratio are risks. 


DTAC/True Merger to Proceed but Without the VTOs

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

<ul>
<li>We maintain our BUY rating but lower TP by 4% to Bt236,calculated using DCF,to factor in earnings cut as our 22E and 23E forecasts were slightly aggressive. 3Q22 core earnings </li>
<li>Analyst meeting key details ADVANC has begun phasing out of its Bt100 to Bt150 low-end price plans in its prepaid segment due to the unsustainability.</li>
<li>No new progress has been made on the TTTBB deal. We expect ADVANC to make a counteroffer within 4Q22 to wrap-up the deal by 1H23.</li>
</ul>


We maintain our BUY rating but lower TP by 4% to Bt236,calculated using DCF,to factor in earnings cut as our 22E and 23E forecasts were slightly aggressive. 3Q22 core earnings 
Analyst meeting key details ADVANC has begun phasing out of its Bt100 to Bt150 low-end price plans in its prepaid segment due to the unsustainability.
No new progress has been made on the TTTBB deal. We expect ADVANC to make a counteroffer within 4Q22 to wrap-up the deal by 1H23.


ADVANC : Price War Remains Intense Amidst Inflation

Thailand

Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited is granted a 25-year concession expiring the year 2015 by the Telephone Organization of Thailand to provide cellular phone services.  The Company provides analog mobile phone services through the Nordic Mobile Telephone (NMT900) network, and digital phone services through the Global Systems for Mobile Communication (GSM) network.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)

DTAC/True Merger: The Court Dismisses the Consumer Council’s Petition

The Court ruling removes an impediment to the merger. Completion is targeted for 1Q23. The current share price ratio of 9.072x vs exchange ratio of...

Arun George

ASEAN Utilities: From Tap To Socket

I'd be shorting Intouch Holdings' shares here, and going long Advanced Info Service Public, along with some Singapore Telecom.

David Blennerhassett

Disaster As VTOs Cancelled Under DTAC/True Merger

This appears a cop-out on behalf of both Tender Offerors (Telenor & CP Group), who probably could have pushed for an extension. And why weren't...

David Blennerhassett

DTAC/True Merger to Proceed but Without the VTOs

Merger completion is targeted for 1Q23. The current share price ratio of 8.750x vs the exchange ratio of 10.221x is attractive. Timing and...

Arun George

ADVANC : Price War Remains Intense Amidst Inflation

We maintain our BUY rating but lower TP by 4% to Bt236, calculated using DCF, to factor in earnings cut as our 22E and 23E forecasts were slightly...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)