TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Intel put forth a significant cost cutting program to generate $3B in savings in 2023 and $8-10B by 2025.</li>
<li>CEO Gelsinger's PC forecasting track record is horrendous, we wouldn't bet on a down MSD 2023 market.</li>
<li>Datacenter...which once carried near 60% margins hit breakeven this quarter... an astonishing fall.</li>
</ul>


Intel put forth a significant cost cutting program to generate $3B in savings in 2023 and $8-10B by 2025.
CEO Gelsinger's PC forecasting track record is horrendous, we wouldn't bet on a down MSD 2023 market.
Datacenter...which once carried near 60% margins hit breakeven this quarter... an astonishing fall.


Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Chips / In Depth: The sudden reversal of the global chip shortage</li><li>Hong Kong / Hong Kong unveils new visa, property tax policies to stanch talent exodus</li><li>Central bank / China’s central bank gets new deputy governor</li></ul>

Chips / In Depth: The sudden reversal of the global chip shortageHong Kong / Hong Kong unveils new visa, property tax policies to stanch talent exodusCentral bank / China’s central bank gets new deputy governor

CX Daily: The Sudden Reversal of the Global Chip Shortage

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

<ul>
<li>We've been pessimistic on prospects for ARM and recent news flow and share price performance hasn't helped but a decent report from TSMC eases some of our concerns</li>
<li>Softbank needs high teens royalty revenue growth for ARM and TSMC as a bellwether (+30% for Q3 and Q4 guidance) is better than AMD or Nvidia</li>
<li>We remain more conservative on valuation ($37bn) than Softbank assuming high single-digit growth and c. 43% EBITDA margins</li>
</ul>


We've been pessimistic on prospects for ARM and recent news flow and share price performance hasn't helped but a decent report from TSMC eases some of our concerns
Softbank needs high teens royalty revenue growth for ARM and TSMC as a bellwether (+30% for Q3 and Q4 guidance) is better than AMD or Nvidia
We remain more conservative on valuation ($37bn) than Softbank assuming high single-digit growth and c. 43% EBITDA margins


Softbank Group - The Most Important Number in Q2 Results May Be ARM Royalty Revenue

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>AMD and Samsung preliminary numbers disappoint, PC demand weakness cited.</li>
<li>U.S. issues broad new rules restricting technology sales to China, essentially removing China as a long-term demand driver for advanced products.</li>
<li>TSMC results coming out this week, expecting all-time high revenue.</li>
</ul>


AMD and Samsung preliminary numbers disappoint, PC demand weakness cited.
U.S. issues broad new rules restricting technology sales to China, essentially removing China as a long-term demand driver for advanced products.
TSMC results coming out this week, expecting all-time high revenue.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Our Summary of Sweeping New China Restrictions, TSMC Results This Week

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Intel's CEO has clearly put NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) in the cross-hairs with his conference comments and the unveiling of new graphics chips.</li>
<li>Separate reports are that Apple is cutting back iPhone 14 production volumes, negatively impacting TSMC and the Apple supply chain.</li>
<li>Intel is now slightly outperforming TSMC &amp; UMC, however has a lot of room to catch up in our view given its large underperformance over the last six months.</li>
</ul>


Intel's CEO has clearly put NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) in the cross-hairs with his conference comments and the unveiling of new graphics chips.
Separate reports are that Apple is cutting back iPhone 14 production volumes, negatively impacting TSMC and the Apple supply chain.
Intel is now slightly outperforming TSMC &amp; UMC, however has a lot of room to catch up in our view given its large underperformance over the last six months.


Intel Vs. TSMC/​​UMC Long/​​Short Monitor: Post Conference Take Aways, Intel Performance Reverts

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

Intel 3Q22: Still Too Optimistic

Intel's cost cutting program is overly optimistic, much like every other forecast Pat Gelsinger has made since becoming CEO two years ago. Fade...

Aaron Gabin

CX Daily: The Sudden Reversal of the Global Chip Shortage

In Depth: The sudden reversal of the global chip shortage. Hong Kong unveils new visa, property tax policies to stanch talent exodus

Caixin Global

Softbank Group - The Most Important Number in Q2 Results May Be ARM Royalty Revenue

Recent semiconductor weakness is worrisome but results from TSMC are reassuring on the timing of an ARM IPO. We value ARM at $37bn v Softbank's $40bn.

Kirk Boodry

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Our Summary of Sweeping New China Restrictions, TSMC Results This Week

U.S. issues broad new rules restricting technology sales to China, essentially removing China as a long-term demand driver for advanced products.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Intel Vs. TSMC/UMC Long/Short Monitor: Post Conference Take Aways, Intel Performance Reverts

Separate reports are that Apple is cutting back iPhone 14 production volumes, negatively impacting TSMC and the Apple supply chain.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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Intel 3Q22: Still Too Optimistic

Intel's cost cutting program is overly optimistic, much like every other forecast Pat Gelsinger has made since becoming CEO two years ago. Fade...

Aaron Gabin

CX Daily: The Sudden Reversal of the Global Chip Shortage

In Depth: The sudden reversal of the global chip shortage. Hong Kong unveils new visa, property tax policies to stanch talent exodus

Caixin Global

Softbank Group - The Most Important Number in Q2 Results May Be ARM Royalty Revenue

Recent semiconductor weakness is worrisome but results from TSMC are reassuring on the timing of an ARM IPO. We value ARM at $37bn v Softbank's $40bn.

Kirk Boodry

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Our Summary of Sweeping New China Restrictions, TSMC Results This Week

U.S. issues broad new rules restricting technology sales to China, essentially removing China as a long-term demand driver for advanced products.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Intel Vs. TSMC/​​UMC Long/​​Short Monitor: Post Conference Take Aways, Intel Performance Reverts

Separate reports are that Apple is cutting back iPhone 14 production volumes, negatively impacting TSMC and the Apple supply chain.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Intel Vs. TSMC/UMC Long/Short Monitor: Post Conference Take Aways, Intel Performance Reverts