Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Nationz Technologies Inc A / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the June rebalance of the CSI All Share Semiconductor Index ended 30 April. The changes should be announced on 30 May and implemented on 13 June.</li>
<li>We forecast 4 adds and 9 deletes for the index with a one-way turnover of 2.7% and a round-trip trade of CNY 1.2bn (US$167m).</li>
<li>Some stocks have overlaps with changes to the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index and the CNI Semiconductor Chips Index and there will be increased passive flow for those stocks.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the June rebalance of the CSI All Share Semiconductor Index ended 30 April. The changes should be announced on 30 May and implemented on 13 June.
We forecast 4 adds and 9 deletes for the index with a one-way turnover of 2.7% and a round-trip trade of CNY 1.2bn (US$167m).
Some stocks have overlaps with changes to the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index and the CNI Semiconductor Chips Index and there will be increased passive flow for those stocks.


CSI All Share Semiconductor Index Rebalance Preview: 13 Potential Changes in June

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>More US restrictions on export of SPE Semi Production Equipment to Chinese firms (CXMT, SMIC, YMTC). The big increase in Chinese spending was done over 2023-24, it's declining in 2025-26. </li>
<li>Chinese domestic SPE vendors are growing fast and gaining share from AMAT, LAM, TEL. ASML is a monopoly below 65nm. KLA is very dominant. Focus on best 2: ASML, KLA.</li>
<li>China’s efforts to grow its own supply chain and equipment makers will continue, AMEC and Naura are the leaders. Consolidation could start. </li>
</ul>


More US restrictions on export of SPE Semi Production Equipment to Chinese firms (CXMT, SMIC, YMTC). The big increase in Chinese spending was done over 2023-24, it's declining in 2025-26. 
Chinese domestic SPE vendors are growing fast and gaining share from AMAT, LAM, TEL. ASML is a monopoly below 65nm. KLA is very dominant. Focus on best 2: ASML, KLA.
China’s efforts to grow its own supply chain and equipment makers will continue, AMEC and Naura are the leaders. Consolidation could start. 


China – US: More US Restrictions on Chinese Firms, but Chinese Equipment Firms Are Growing Fast

<ul>
<li>The review period for the June rebalance of the CSI All Share Semiconductor Index ends 30 April. The changes should be announced on 30 May and implemented on 13 June.</li>
<li>We forecast 4/5 adds and 8 deletes for the index with a one-way turnover of 2.4% and a round-trip trade of CNY 990m (US$136m).</li>
<li>There are many forecast adds and deletes that will have same side flows from trackers of the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index and the CNI Semiconductor Chips Index.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the June rebalance of the CSI All Share Semiconductor Index ends 30 April. The changes should be announced on 30 May and implemented on 13 June.
We forecast 4/5 adds and 8 deletes for the index with a one-way turnover of 2.4% and a round-trip trade of CNY 990m (US$136m).
There are many forecast adds and deletes that will have same side flows from trackers of the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index and the CNI Semiconductor Chips Index.


CSI All Share Semiconductor Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Index Flows for Some Stocks

<ul>
<li>There could be one change for the CNI Semiconductor Chips Index with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nexchip-semiconductor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40390:1" rel="noopener">Nexchip Semiconductor (688249 CH)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amlogic-shanghai-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30340:1" rel="noopener">Amlogic Shanghai (688099 CH)</a> in June.</li>
<li>Passive trackers are estimated to buy 1.4x ADV in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nexchip-semiconductor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40390:1" rel="noopener">Nexchip Semiconductor</a> and sell 0.8x ADV in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amlogic-shanghai-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30340:1" rel="noopener">Amlogic Shanghai</a>. There will be buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-in" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31062:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC)</a> due to capping.</li>
<li>The forecast add and delete have performed in line since the start of the year but there has been a move higher in the last few weeks.</li>
</ul>


There could be one change for the CNI Semiconductor Chips Index with Nexchip Semiconductor (688249 CH) replacing Amlogic Shanghai (688099 CH) in June.
Passive trackers are estimated to buy 1.4x ADV in Nexchip Semiconductor and sell 0.8x ADV in Amlogic Shanghai. There will be buying in Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) due to capping.
The forecast add and delete have performed in line since the start of the year but there has been a move higher in the last few weeks.


CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: One Change in June

<ul>
<li>There could be three changes for the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index at the close of trading on 13 June.</li>
<li>Based on the assets tracking the index, passive trackers will need to trade between 0.1-0.4x ADV in the stocks.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bestechnic-shanghai-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33459:1" rel="noopener">Bestechnic Shanghai (688608 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzhou-kematek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44255:1" rel="noopener">Suzhou Kematek (301611 CH)</a> will also have net inflows from passive trackers of other indices at the same time, adding to the flow.</li>
</ul>


There could be three changes for the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index at the close of trading on 13 June.
Based on the assets tracking the index, passive trackers will need to trade between 0.1-0.4x ADV in the stocks.

Bestechnic Shanghai (688608 CH) and Suzhou Kematek (301611 CH) will also have net inflows from passive trackers of other indices at the same time, adding to the flow.


CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Adds for Some Stocks Increase Flow

China

Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc. China manufactures micro-fabrication equipment. The Company researches, develops, produces, and sells semiconductor equipment. Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment China provides its products for semiconductor and adjacent high technology industries.

Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equ (688012 CH)

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Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equ (688012 CH)

China – US: More US Restrictions on Chinese Firms, but Chinese Equipment Firms Are Growing Fast

US to restrict export of Semi Production Equipment to Chinese firms CXMT, SMIC, YMTC. Chinese vendors gaining share from AMAT, LAM, TEL. China...

Nicolas Baratte

CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: One Change in June

Nexchip Semi could replace Amlogic Shanghai in the index. Passive trackers will need to buy 1.4x ADV in the add and sell 0.8x ADV in the delete....

Brian Freitas

CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Adds for Some Stocks Increase Flow

There could be 3 changes for the index in June. Most of the index changes will have inflows/outflows from other index trackers at the same time,...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CSI All Share Semiconductor Index Rebalance Preview: 13 Potential Changes in June

There could be 4 adds/9 deletes in June. Estimated turnover is 2.7% and round-trip trade is CNY 1.2bn. There are multiple stocks with same-way flow...

Brian Freitas

China – US: More US Restrictions on Chinese Firms, but Chinese Equipment Firms Are Growing Fast

​US to restrict export of Semi Production Equipment to Chinese firms CXMT, SMIC, YMTC. Chinese vendors gaining share from AMAT, LAM, TEL. China...

Nicolas Baratte

CSI All Share Semiconductor Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Index Flows for Some Stocks

There could be 12-13 changes for the index in June. Some stocks will have same way flows from multiple index trackers and those stocks could...

Brian Freitas

CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: One Change in June

Nexchip Semi could replace Amlogic Shanghai in the index. Passive trackers will need to buy 1.4x ADV in the add and sell 0.8x ADV in the delete....

Brian Freitas

CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Adds for Some Stocks Increase Flow

There could be 3 changes for the index in June. Most of the index changes will have inflows/outflows from other index trackers at the same time,...

Brian Freitas

US to restrict export of Semi Production Equipment to Chinese firms CXMT, SMIC, YMTC. Chinese vendors gaining share from AMAT, LAM, TEL. China...