Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>AMAT mentions “tremendous architecture inflections” in Logic and Memory (GAA, BSPD, HBM), this is true. But reviewed yesterday, how much, how fast versus declining Mature Logic and China declining?</li>
<li>2025 China to decline -25%, RoW to increase +25% on AI. This should continue in 2026. Post China’s elevated capex in 2023-24, the SPE sector is a play on AI. </li>
<li>ASML and KLA are 1) quasi monopoly 2) in segments that outgrow the total market. ASML is cheapish, KAL at average valuations. Best 2 stocks: ASML, KLA</li>
</ul>


AMAT mentions “tremendous architecture inflections” in Logic and Memory (GAA, BSPD, HBM), this is true. But reviewed yesterday, how much, how fast versus declining Mature Logic and China declining?
2025 China to decline -25%, RoW to increase +25% on AI. This should continue in 2026. Post China’s elevated capex in 2023-24, the SPE sector is a play on AI. 
ASML and KLA are 1) quasi monopoly 2) in segments that outgrow the total market. ASML is cheapish, KAL at average valuations. Best 2 stocks: ASML, KLA


SPE Part 2: Growth in 2025-26 from AI Segment Only (Logic, HBM, Packaging). Best 2 Stocks: ASML, KLA

China New Economy Equity Analyst, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Robert McKay

China New Economy Equity Analyst

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In the past four quarters, Chinese companies bought 65+ ArF (Argon Fluoride) Immersion lithography machines, some capable of overlay precision as fine as 1.5nm overlay for Self-Aligned Double/Quadruple/Octuple Patterning (SAD/Q/OP);</li>
<li>The race is between Chinese foundries to put these lithography machines to meet the raging demand of AI, which looks optimistic in the medium term, despite short-term challenges;</li>
<li>The race is also among the global semiconductor industry to meet the demand for testing the limit of AI's scaling law. So far the balance tips in <strong>disfavor</strong> of China. </li>
</ul>


In the past four quarters, Chinese companies bought 65+ ArF (Argon Fluoride) Immersion lithography machines, some capable of overlay precision as fine as 1.5nm overlay for Self-Aligned Double/Quadruple/Octuple Patterning (SAD/Q/OP);
The race is between Chinese foundries to put these lithography machines to meet the raging demand of AI, which looks optimistic in the medium term, despite short-term challenges;
The race is also among the global semiconductor industry to meet the demand for testing the limit of AI's scaling law. So far the balance tips in disfavor of China. 


China's Near-Term Semiconductor Bottleneck Isn't ASML

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Shanghai Friendess Electronic / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Money continues to flow into mainland China ETFs taking the total inflows since 18 July to over US$25bn. This has likely helped stabilise the market and prevent a bigger fall.</li>
<li>The inflows continue to be largest on ETFs tracking headline indices - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a>, CSI1000, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chinext-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25483:1" rel="noopener">ChiNext</a>. Plus there are inflows on some sectoral and thematic ETFs.</li>
<li>The skew between stocks gaining 20%+ over the period vs those dropping -20% or more has improved significantly over the last week.</li>
</ul>


Money continues to flow into mainland China ETFs taking the total inflows since 18 July to over US$25bn. This has likely helped stabilise the market and prevent a bigger fall.
The inflows continue to be largest on ETFs tracking headline indices - CSI 300, STAR50, CSI1000, CSI 500, SSE50, ChiNext. Plus there are inflows on some sectoral and thematic ETFs.
The skew between stocks gaining 20%+ over the period vs those dropping -20% or more has improved significantly over the last week.


China ETFs: Inflows Continue to Support the Market

<ul>
<li>Nearly US$20bn has flowed into mainland China listed ETFs since 18 July and could be driven by the National Team supporting the market.</li>
<li>Most of the inflows have been focused on large cap indices including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chinext-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25483:1" rel="noopener">ChiNext</a> and other sectoral and thematic ETFs.</li>
<li>The largest impact has been on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> constituents, but that has not stopped the slide in the stocks.</li>
</ul>


Nearly US$20bn has flowed into mainland China listed ETFs since 18 July and could be driven by the National Team supporting the market.
Most of the inflows have been focused on large cap indices including CSI 300, STAR50, CSI 500, SSE50, ChiNext and other sectoral and thematic ETFs.
The largest impact has been on the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) constituents, but that has not stopped the slide in the stocks.


China: Huge ETF Inflows & Impact on Stocks

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

Shanghai Haohai Biological Tec / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The December 2025 index review results for the STAR 50 and STAR 100 indices were announced after market close on Friday 28th November 2025.</li>
<li>There will be two changes for the STAR 50 index and eight changes for the STAR 100 index.</li>
<li>We expect one-way flows of approximately US$1.4bn and US$516mn for the STAR 50 and STAR 100 index rebal events, respectively.</li>
</ul>


The December 2025 index review results for the STAR 50 and STAR 100 indices were announced after market close on Friday 28th November 2025.
There will be two changes for the STAR 50 index and eight changes for the STAR 100 index.
We expect one-way flows of approximately US$1.4bn and US$516mn for the STAR 50 and STAR 100 index rebal events, respectively.


Quiddity STAR 50/100 Dec25 Results: 19/20 Changes Correctly Predicted; ~US$2bn Combined One-Way Flow

China

Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc. China manufactures micro-fabrication equipment. The Company researches, develops, produces, and sells semiconductor equipment. Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment China provides its products for semiconductor and adjacent high technology industries.

Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equ (688012 CH)

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Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equ (688012 CH)

SPE Part 2: Growth in 2025-26 from AI Segment Only (Logic, HBM, Packaging). Best 2 Stocks: ASML, KLA

architectural advancements in Logic and Memory, but questions remain on growth rates and China's decline. ASML and KLA are top picks in the sector....

Nicolas Baratte

China's Near-Term Semiconductor Bottleneck Isn't ASML

China's semiconductor bottleneck isn't lithography tools in the near term, it is etchers. We see ST pressure, MT opportunity and LT challenge from...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China ETFs: Inflows Continue to Support the Market

Money continues to flow into mainland China ETFs with the total inflows since 18 July over US$25bn. This has likely helped stabilise the market and...

Brian Freitas

China: Huge ETF Inflows & Impact on Stocks

Nearly US$20bn has flowed into mainland China ETFs and could be driven by National Team supporting the market. There are many stocks where the ETFs...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity STAR 50/100 Dec25 Results: 19/20 Changes Correctly Predicted; ~US$2bn Combined One-Way Flow

We correctly predicted 19 out of 20 confirmed index changes. All of the ADDs/DELs except for STAR 100 DEL Shanghai Haohai Biological Tec (688366...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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