Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Intel jumping on plans to cut its bloated workforce and streamline management.</li>
<li>EV plays should pick up after Tesla held after mkt gains from yesterday.</li>
<li>Boeing numbers will help the heavies with better FCF and production outlooks.</li>
</ul>


Intel jumping on plans to cut its bloated workforce and streamline management.
EV plays should pick up after Tesla held after mkt gains from yesterday.
Boeing numbers will help the heavies with better FCF and production outlooks.


Japan Morning Connction: Tech Surging with Trump Signalling Zero China Tariffs on a Trade Deal

<ul>
<li>Disco guidance possibly showing front loading ahead of a potentially far bleaker 2Q.</li>
<li>US homebuilders strong after DR Horton reported strong GPM despite cutting guidance.</li>
<li>Trump re-raising the possibility of fees for Chinese vessels at US ports may be positive for non-Chinese ship builders.</li>
</ul>


Disco guidance possibly showing front loading ahead of a potentially far bleaker 2Q.
US homebuilders strong after DR Horton reported strong GPM despite cutting guidance.
Trump re-raising the possibility of fees for Chinese vessels at US ports may be positive for non-Chinese ship builders.


Japan Morning Connection: TSMC Fails to Hold Early Gains While Semi-Cap Plays Also Sag

<ul>
<li>Widespread weakness in tech/AI related plays after US curbs H20 exports setting a dour tone for JP SPE.</li>
<li>The US looking to suspend the SLR rule for Treasuries could see yields drop as banks do the work of the Fed.</li>
<li>HF's zeroed in Suzuki secondary sparks squeeze and biggest volumes of the year.</li>
</ul>


Widespread weakness in tech/AI related plays after US curbs H20 exports setting a dour tone for JP SPE.
The US looking to suspend the SLR rule for Treasuries could see yields drop as banks do the work of the Fed.
HF's zeroed in Suzuki secondary sparks squeeze and biggest volumes of the year.


Japan Morning Connection: Tech and AI Set to Drop on New NVDA Export Curbs

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>'s weight in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> has increased to 10.81% which will lead to another reduction in the CPAF in September.</li>
<li>Even after the reduction in CPAF and an increase in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting</a>'s PAF in September, there is a possibility of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing</a> being capped again in March 2026.</li>
<li>The continued passive selling sets up interesting trading opportunities after periods of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> outperformance versus the other index constituents.</li>
</ul>



Fast Retailing (9983 JP)'s weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has increased to 10.81% which will lead to another reduction in the CPAF in September.
Even after the reduction in CPAF and an increase in BayCurrent Consulting's PAF in September, there is a possibility of Fast Retailing being capped again in March 2026.
The continued passive selling sets up interesting trading opportunities after periods of Fast Retailing (9983 JP) outperformance versus the other index constituents.


Fast Retailing (9983 JP): More Capping-Led Selling in September (And Maybe More in March)

<ul>
<li>Oversold tech/SPE/AI surging after Trump delayed reciprocal tariffs on all but China, with the SOX up the most of all time.</li>
<li>Expect similar moves with oversold tech beta likely to open &gt;+10%.</li>
<li>Banks and life insurance  should continue to fare well given the persistently high yields, and names with high export ratios to the US.</li>
</ul>


Oversold tech/SPE/AI surging after Trump delayed reciprocal tariffs on all but China, with the SOX up the most of all time.
Expect similar moves with oversold tech beta likely to open &gt;+10%.
Banks and life insurance  should continue to fare well given the persistently high yields, and names with high export ratios to the US.


Japan Morning Connection: Trump Pulls off One of the Greatest Ruses of All Time

Japan

ADVANTEST CORPORATION produces semiconductor testing devices and electronic measuring instruments.  The Company's products include large-scale integration (LSI) test systems, memory test systems, dynamic test handlers, network analyzers, electronic meters, optical testing devices, and signal sources.

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Advantest Corp (6857 JP)

Japan Morning Connction: Tech Surging with Trump Signalling Zero China Tariffs on a Trade Deal

Intel plans to cut workforce and streamline management, EV plays may continue to rise after Tesla's gains, Boeing's improved numbers to benefit...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: TSMC Fails to Hold Early Gains While Semi-Cap Plays Also Sag

Disco may suffer from tough 2Q with AI spending nearing its peak, US homebuilders up after strong beat from DR Horton, Trump's fees on Chinese...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Tech and AI Set to Drop on New NVDA Export Curbs

Tech and AI weakness after H20 chipset restrictions, discussion of dropping the SLR rule for Treasuries may cause volatility for financials,...

Andrew Jackson

Fast Retailing (9983 JP): More Capping-Led Selling in September (And Maybe More in March)

Fast Retailing will be capped in September unless the stock underperforms the index over the next 3 months. There could be more capping next March....

Brian Freitas

Japan Morning Connection: Trump Pulls off One of the Greatest Ruses of All Time

Oversold Tech surging after delay on reciprocal tariffs, with SOX hitting record highs. Expect gains in oversold tech beta and strong performance...

Andrew Jackson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connction: Tech Surging with Trump Signalling Zero China Tariffs on a Trade Deal

​Intel plans to cut workforce and streamline management, EV plays may continue to rise after Tesla's gains, Boeing's improved numbers to benefit...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: TSMC Fails to Hold Early Gains While Semi-Cap Plays Also Sag

​Disco may suffer from tough 2Q with AI spending nearing its peak, US homebuilders up after strong beat from DR Horton, Trump's fees on Chinese...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Tech and AI Set to Drop on New NVDA Export Curbs

Tech and AI weakness after H20 chipset restrictions, discussion of dropping the SLR rule for Treasuries may cause volatility for financials,...

Andrew Jackson

Fast Retailing (9983 JP): More Capping-Led Selling in September (And Maybe More in March)

Fast Retailing will be capped in September unless the stock underperforms the index over the next 3 months. There could be more capping next March....

Brian Freitas

Japan Morning Connection: Trump Pulls off One of the Greatest Ruses of All Time

Oversold ​Tech surging after delay on reciprocal tariffs, with SOX hitting record highs. Expect gains in oversold tech beta and strong performance...

Andrew Jackson

Intel plans to cut workforce and streamline management, EV plays may continue to rise after Tesla's gains, Boeing's improved numbers to benefit...

Disco may suffer from tough 2Q with AI spending nearing its peak, US homebuilders up after strong beat from DR Horton, Trump's fees on Chinese...

Oversold Tech surging after delay on reciprocal tariffs, with SOX hitting record highs. Expect gains in oversold tech beta and strong performance...