Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>During 4QFY03/2023 results release, Nikon announced a medium-term target of revenues of ¥700bn, OPM of 10%+ and ROE of 8%+ by the end of FY2025E (FY ended 31st March 2026).</li>
<li>Our analysis (with conservative assumptions) suggests that the company could easily achieve its medium-term target despite the company expecting to see its earnings declining in FY03/2024E.</li>
<li>Nikon is trading at a discount to its Japanese peers Canon and Konica Minolta and we think the market is clearly undervaluing the company as a pure-play Imaging products player.</li>
</ul>


During 4QFY03/2023 results release, Nikon announced a medium-term target of revenues of ¥700bn, OPM of 10%+ and ROE of 8%+ by the end of FY2025E (FY ended 31st March 2026).
Our analysis (with conservative assumptions) suggests that the company could easily achieve its medium-term target despite the company expecting to see its earnings declining in FY03/2024E.
Nikon is trading at a discount to its Japanese peers Canon and Konica Minolta and we think the market is clearly undervaluing the company as a pure-play Imaging products player.


Nikon: A Reality Check on Nikon’s Medium-Term Management Plan

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. Fed Lifts rates +25bps as expected; No longer sees recession emerging; Equities - Mixed as Industrials Rally, Tech Sells off; Meta Beats on Rev/EPS; Boeing Surges on Outloook</li>
<li>JAPAN. Nikkei Futures -0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY 140.4; Fed Move Done, but for BOJ - Potential for a Surprise Move ? Advantest Miss-back to reality ?  Earnings in Full Swing. </li>
<li>NUGGET. Japanese Executives Not Properly Incentivized; Shareholders need to take a different tact in addressing corporate performance. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. Fed Lifts rates +25bps as expected; No longer sees recession emerging; Equities - Mixed as Industrials Rally, Tech Sells off; Meta Beats on Rev/EPS; Boeing Surges on Outloook
JAPAN. Nikkei Futures -0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY 140.4; Fed Move Done, but for BOJ - Potential for a Surprise Move ? Advantest Miss-back to reality ?  Earnings in Full Swing. 
NUGGET. Japanese Executives Not Properly Incentivized; Shareholders need to take a different tact in addressing corporate performance. 


Ohayo Japan| Fed Watch: Now for Hawkish Hold; Advantest Miss; NUGGET: JP Executives Not Incentivized

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. US Stocks continue relentless run; Consumer Confidence hits 2 year high; New Resolve from China to help the economy; Alphabet reports strong earnings; MSFT AI biz growing </li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futures -0.3% Discount to Cash; USDJPY 140.9; Earnings in full swing:  Otsuka HD beats; Shimano Misses;   Broker Changes: Nintendo cut to Sell at UBS</li>
<li>NUGGET. Globally competitive wages - An National Security Issue. More evidence emerges: Now out of Vietnam </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. US Stocks continue relentless run; Consumer Confidence hits 2 year high; New Resolve from China to help the economy; Alphabet reports strong earnings; MSFT AI biz growing 
JAPAN. NKY Futures -0.3% Discount to Cash; USDJPY 140.9; Earnings in full swing:  Otsuka HD beats; Shimano Misses;   Broker Changes: Nintendo cut to Sell at UBS
NUGGET. Globally competitive wages - An National Security Issue. More evidence emerges: Now out of Vietnam 


Ohayo Japan| US Consumer Confidence; China Resolve Fuels Stocks; NUGGET:IT Talent Issue - A Priority

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  Disinflation Trade on as US PPI provides more tailwinds; Rates, USD Fall; Equites rally, More China Stimulus Coming ? Ripple resolution spurs Crypto bid; AI Wars: Meta Updates BARD</li>
<li>JAPAN. Nikkei Futures +1% vs Cash; USDJPY 138; Set for Beta bid in Stocks; Blow out Fast Retailing numbers; Barclays see Sept BOJ tweek; Bullish Bank Initiations from UBS</li>
<li>NUGGET.  Hydrogen is a key part of JP Govt carbon zero strategy. We see KHI(7012) as a Hydrogen winner and see the recent pullback as a good entry opportunity</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  Disinflation Trade on as US PPI provides more tailwinds; Rates, USD Fall; Equites rally, More China Stimulus Coming ? Ripple resolution spurs Crypto bid; AI Wars: Meta Updates BARD
JAPAN. Nikkei Futures +1% vs Cash; USDJPY 138; Set for Beta bid in Stocks; Blow out Fast Retailing numbers; Barclays see Sept BOJ tweek; Bullish Bank Initiations from UBS
NUGGET.  Hydrogen is a key part of JP Govt carbon zero strategy. We see KHI(7012) as a Hydrogen winner and see the recent pullback as a good entry opportunity


Ohayo Japan| Lower Rates, Higher Stocks; Crypto Optimism; NUGGET: Hydrogen Future - KHI(7012)Revisit

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX Flat as Chips stocks sell off on potential new China restrictions;  Fed Chair Powell keeps hawkish stance saying more hikes on the horizon; Micron calling bottom on Memory. </li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.1% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.4; Japan FX Tsar concerned saying govt will  respond "appropriately" on excessive weakness; Final Fantasy 16 off to a solid start</li>
<li>NUGGET. Katitas - specialist in remodelling vacant homes. 40% YTD underpeformance vs TPX. Govt stepping up support of vacant home sector - supportive of Katitas's business.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX Flat as Chips stocks sell off on potential new China restrictions;  Fed Chair Powell keeps hawkish stance saying more hikes on the horizon; Micron calling bottom on Memory. 
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.1% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.4; Japan FX Tsar concerned saying govt will  respond "appropriately" on excessive weakness; Final Fantasy 16 off to a solid start
NUGGET. Katitas - specialist in remodelling vacant homes. 40% YTD underpeformance vs TPX. Govt stepping up support of vacant home sector - supportive of Katitas's business.


Ohayo Japan|Chips Sell Off; Micron Calls Memory Bottom; NUGGET: Katitas(8919)-Future Looks Bright

Japan

ADVANTEST CORPORATION produces semiconductor testing devices and electronic measuring instruments.  The Company's products include large-scale integration (LSI) test systems, memory test systems, dynamic test handlers, network analyzers, electronic meters, optical testing devices, and signal sources.

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Advantest Corp (6857 JP)

Nikon: A Reality Check on Nikon’s Medium-Term Management Plan

As Nikon is reporting earnings soon, this insight would help readers have a quick glance at the company's last quarter earnings and whether Nikon...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Ohayo Japan| Fed Watch: Now for Hawkish Hold; Advantest Miss; NUGGET: JP Executives Not Incentivized

Now for a Hawkish Hold from the Fed; Nikkei Futures -0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY 140.4; Fed Move Down, but for BOJ - Potential for a Surprise Move ?...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan| US Consumer Confidence; China Resolve Fuels Stocks; NUGGET:IT Talent Issue - A Priority

Strong consumer confidence; Chinese govt resolve to support economy fuels stocks; NKY Futures -0.3% Discount to Cash; Earnings: Otsuka HD beats;...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan| Lower Rates, Higher Stocks; Crypto Optimism; NUGGET: Hydrogen Future - KHI(7012)Revisit

Disinflation trade continues- Rates down, DXY down, Stocks up; Nikkei Futures +1% vs Cash; USDJPY 138; Set for Beta bid in Stocks; Blow out Fast...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan|Chips Sell Off; Micron Calls Memory Bottom; NUGGET: Katitas(8919)-Future Looks Bright

SPX Flat; Chip stocks sell off; NKY Futs +0.1% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.4; Japan FX Tsar concerned saying govt will respond "appropriately" on...

Mark Chadwick

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