Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>China has responded to Japan's military rhetoric and actions by announcing a ban on all exports deemed dual-use for Japan's military, including rare earths.</li>
<li>China launched an anti-dumping probe into Dichlorosilane, a material primarily used in thin films for producing logic, memory, analog, and other types of chips.</li>
<li>The trade measures affect a broad range of Japan's industries, including automotive, chemicals, electronics, semiconductor equipment, chip-making materials, and robotics.  The U.S. response to tensions between China and Japan remains limited.</li>
</ul>


China has responded to Japan's military rhetoric and actions by announcing a ban on all exports deemed dual-use for Japan's military, including rare earths.
China launched an anti-dumping probe into Dichlorosilane, a material primarily used in thin films for producing logic, memory, analog, and other types of chips.
The trade measures affect a broad range of Japan's industries, including automotive, chemicals, electronics, semiconductor equipment, chip-making materials, and robotics.  The U.S. response to tensions between China and Japan remains limited.


Japan Trade: CHINA SAYS, "YOU MADE YOUR FUTON, NOW LIE IN IT!"

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC and ASML reported 1Q24 results last week; both stocks have fallen post results, impacted by global concerns despite a strong outlook for these two leaders into 2025E.</li>
<li>TSMC guided for strong growth not just in 2024E, but if one digs into management's comments, they actually provided strong visibility into their 2028E internal revenue expectations.</li>
<li>For ASML, its EUV product business is the key indicator to watch. We believe TSMC shares will continue to re-rate even through a period of global economic softness.</li>
</ul>


TSMC and ASML reported 1Q24 results last week; both stocks have fallen post results, impacted by global concerns despite a strong outlook for these two leaders into 2025E.
TSMC guided for strong growth not just in 2024E, but if one digs into management's comments, they actually provided strong visibility into their 2028E internal revenue expectations.
For ASML, its EUV product business is the key indicator to watch. We believe TSMC shares will continue to re-rate even through a period of global economic softness.


TSMC Just Provided Substantial Visibility into Their Long-Term Growth Estimate; ASML Adds Color

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

<ul>
<li>FY'23 growth forecast increased despite push outs in the EUV order book and lower than expected IBB revenues.</li>
<li>Broad-Based recovery is now looking more like a H1'24 scenario with lingering uncertainty as to how it quickly it will unfold thereafter</li>
<li>System sales to China increased from 8% of revenues in Q1'23 to 24% in Q2'23. Non-China DUV order cancellations are being snapped up by China at an unprecedented rate. </li>
</ul>


FY'23 growth forecast increased despite push outs in the EUV order book and lower than expected IBB revenues.
Broad-Based recovery is now looking more like a H1'24 scenario with lingering uncertainty as to how it quickly it will unfold thereafter
System sales to China increased from 8% of revenues in Q1'23 to 24% in Q2'23. Non-China DUV order cancellations are being snapped up by China at an unprecedented rate. 


Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>The market has discounted and moved beyond Nikon's write-down of the value of its additive manufacturing subsidiary Nikon SLM Solutions.</li>
<li>Orders for 3D metal printers for HII's Newport News naval shipyard signal a new growth opportunity for Nikon's Digital Manufacturing business. </li>
<li>The investment in Trener Robotics is the next step in the development of Nikon's Digital Manufacturing business. </li>
</ul>


The market has discounted and moved beyond Nikon's write-down of the value of its additive manufacturing subsidiary Nikon SLM Solutions.
Orders for 3D metal printers for HII's Newport News naval shipyard signal a new growth opportunity for Nikon's Digital Manufacturing business. 
The investment in Trener Robotics is the next step in the development of Nikon's Digital Manufacturing business. 


Nikon (7731 JP): New Defense Business Beyond the Write-Down

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Software down again in US trading, but Cadence numbers beat AH sending stock and EDA peers higher.</li>
<li>Apple sending a warning shot to Nikon investor EssilorLuxottica with its plans to develop Apple AI glasses, sending its -7% in late trading.</li>
<li>Demand for MLCC's is surging according to Murata's CEO who is hiking prices as enquiries outpace prod capacity 2:1.</li>
</ul>


Software down again in US trading, but Cadence numbers beat AH sending stock and EDA peers higher.
Apple sending a warning shot to Nikon investor EssilorLuxottica with its plans to develop Apple AI glasses, sending its -7% in late trading.
Demand for MLCC's is surging according to Murata's CEO who is hiking prices as enquiries outpace prod capacity 2:1.


Japan Morning Connection: Trump Touts Infra Investment a Win for ‘Coercion Through Tariffs’ Approach

Japan

NIKON CORPORATION manufactures and sells cameras, lenses, semiconductor-related equipment, eyeglasses, microscopes, and measuring instruments.

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Nikon Corp (7731 JP)

Japan Trade: CHINA SAYS, "YOU MADE YOUR FUTON, NOW LIE IN IT!"

China has responded to Japan's military rhetoric and actions by announcing a ban on all exports deemed dual-use for Japan's military, including...

David Mudd

TSMC Just Provided Substantial Visibility into Their Long-Term Growth Estimate; ASML Adds Color

If you dig into the details, TSMC provided substantial insight into the company's internal estimates for long-term revenue. For ASML, we discuss...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

ASML. Sanctions? Moi?

FY'23 growth forecast increased despite push outs in the EUV order book and lower IBB revenues. Semi recovery now a H1'24 scenario with uncertainty...

William Keating

Nikon (7731 JP): New Defense Business Beyond the Write-Down

The shares have rebounded from the write-down of Nikon SLM Solutions, which has a new opportunity in defense-related additive manufacturing....

Scott Foster

Japan Morning Connection: Trump Touts Infra Investment a Win for ‘Coercion Through Tariffs’ Approach

Trump is touting the $550bn worth of Japanese investment that’s set to be deployed as a win for his ‘coercion through tariffs’ approach, with...

Andrew Jackson

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