Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Yesterday, post-close, Bloomberg reported a headline "<strong>*SILCHESTER REPORTS NIKON STAKE; MAY SEEK CAPITAL POLICY CHANGES</strong>"</li>
<li>That was exciting. It was in all caps. It was activist-ish-y. Today the stock rose 10.3% and we got another article saying it was up because of Silchester's filing.</li>
<li>Beware the Bloomberg headline. Nuance is sometimes lost. They aren't always designed to help investors invest. Often, the main purpose is clickbait.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday, post-close, Bloomberg reported a headline "*SILCHESTER REPORTS NIKON STAKE; MAY SEEK CAPITAL POLICY CHANGES"
That was exciting. It was in all caps. It was activist-ish-y. Today the stock rose 10.3% and we got another article saying it was up because of Silchester's filing.
Beware the Bloomberg headline. Nuance is sometimes lost. They aren't always designed to help investors invest. Often, the main purpose is clickbait.


Nikon (7731) - Beware The Bloomberg Headline But There's Value Here

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC and ASML reported 1Q24 results last week; both stocks have fallen post results, impacted by global concerns despite a strong outlook for these two leaders into 2025E.</li>
<li>TSMC guided for strong growth not just in 2024E, but if one digs into management's comments, they actually provided strong visibility into their 2028E internal revenue expectations.</li>
<li>For ASML, its EUV product business is the key indicator to watch. We believe TSMC shares will continue to re-rate even through a period of global economic softness.</li>
</ul>


TSMC and ASML reported 1Q24 results last week; both stocks have fallen post results, impacted by global concerns despite a strong outlook for these two leaders into 2025E.
TSMC guided for strong growth not just in 2024E, but if one digs into management's comments, they actually provided strong visibility into their 2028E internal revenue expectations.
For ASML, its EUV product business is the key indicator to watch. We believe TSMC shares will continue to re-rate even through a period of global economic softness.


TSMC Just Provided Substantial Visibility into Their Long-Term Growth Estimate; ASML Adds Color

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>During 4QFY03/2023 results release, Nikon announced a medium-term target of revenues of ¥700bn, OPM of 10%+ and ROE of 8%+ by the end of FY2025E (FY ended 31st March 2026).</li>
<li>Our analysis (with conservative assumptions) suggests that the company could easily achieve its medium-term target despite the company expecting to see its earnings declining in FY03/2024E.</li>
<li>Nikon is trading at a discount to its Japanese peers Canon and Konica Minolta and we think the market is clearly undervaluing the company as a pure-play Imaging products player.</li>
</ul>


During 4QFY03/2023 results release, Nikon announced a medium-term target of revenues of ¥700bn, OPM of 10%+ and ROE of 8%+ by the end of FY2025E (FY ended 31st March 2026).
Our analysis (with conservative assumptions) suggests that the company could easily achieve its medium-term target despite the company expecting to see its earnings declining in FY03/2024E.
Nikon is trading at a discount to its Japanese peers Canon and Konica Minolta and we think the market is clearly undervaluing the company as a pure-play Imaging products player.


Nikon: A Reality Check on Nikon’s Medium-Term Management Plan

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>Poised for Profitability rebound in FY3/25 putting Nikon on track to meet mid-term plan targets.  </li>
<li>ArF Unit Expansion as Intel benefits from government fiscal incentives to build fabs in EU and US. </li>
<li>Based on the FY3/26 plan for EBIT of Y70b, the stock's theoretical valuation would reach around Y2,200/share</li>
</ul>


Poised for Profitability rebound in FY3/25 putting Nikon on track to meet mid-term plan targets.  
ArF Unit Expansion as Intel benefits from government fiscal incentives to build fabs in EU and US. 
Based on the FY3/26 plan for EBIT of Y70b, the stock's theoretical valuation would reach around Y2,200/share


Nikon (7731) | Profitability Key to Mid-Term Plan

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

<ul>
<li>FY'23 growth forecast increased despite push outs in the EUV order book and lower than expected IBB revenues.</li>
<li>Broad-Based recovery is now looking more like a H1'24 scenario with lingering uncertainty as to how it quickly it will unfold thereafter</li>
<li>System sales to China increased from 8% of revenues in Q1'23 to 24% in Q2'23. Non-China DUV order cancellations are being snapped up by China at an unprecedented rate. </li>
</ul>


FY'23 growth forecast increased despite push outs in the EUV order book and lower than expected IBB revenues.
Broad-Based recovery is now looking more like a H1'24 scenario with lingering uncertainty as to how it quickly it will unfold thereafter
System sales to China increased from 8% of revenues in Q1'23 to 24% in Q2'23. Non-China DUV order cancellations are being snapped up by China at an unprecedented rate. 


Japan

NIKON CORPORATION manufactures and sells cameras, lenses, semiconductor-related equipment, eyeglasses, microscopes, and measuring instruments.

Nikon Corp (7731 JP)

Nikon (7731) - Beware The Bloomberg Headline But There's Value Here

Nikon is a cheap company with dual personalities, which keeps its multiple low. It has cash and securities too. Silchester bought 5% and Bloomberg...

Travis Lundy

TSMC Just Provided Substantial Visibility into Their Long-Term Growth Estimate; ASML Adds Color

If you dig into the details, TSMC provided substantial insight into the company's internal estimates for long-term revenue. For ASML, we discuss...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Nikon: A Reality Check on Nikon’s Medium-Term Management Plan

As Nikon is reporting earnings soon, this insight would help readers have a quick glance at the company's last quarter earnings and whether Nikon...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Nikon (7731) | Profitability Key to Mid-Term Plan

We believe that Nikon is poised for a rebound in FY3/25 profits putting the company on track to meet mid-term plan targets.

Mark Chadwick

ASML. Sanctions? Moi?

FY'23 growth forecast increased despite push outs in the EUV order book and lower IBB revenues. Semi recovery now a H1'24 scenario with uncertainty...

William Keating