Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Sandisk up as NAND prices continue to surge, expect Kioxia to run also with recent Bain sale cleared.</li>
<li>JP factory automation names surged yesterday, but there are likely more gains yet as the next leg for AI.</li>
<li>Quantum names all strong on good numbers, but will Socionext catch on this time?</li>
</ul>


Sandisk up as NAND prices continue to surge, expect Kioxia to run also with recent Bain sale cleared.
JP factory automation names surged yesterday, but there are likely more gains yet as the next leg for AI.
Quantum names all strong on good numbers, but will Socionext catch on this time?


Japan Morning Connection: Memory Back on and Micron Steps Back from Consumer to Focus on Enterprise

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC and ASML reported 1Q24 results last week; both stocks have fallen post results, impacted by global concerns despite a strong outlook for these two leaders into 2025E.</li>
<li>TSMC guided for strong growth not just in 2024E, but if one digs into management's comments, they actually provided strong visibility into their 2028E internal revenue expectations.</li>
<li>For ASML, its EUV product business is the key indicator to watch. We believe TSMC shares will continue to re-rate even through a period of global economic softness.</li>
</ul>


TSMC and ASML reported 1Q24 results last week; both stocks have fallen post results, impacted by global concerns despite a strong outlook for these two leaders into 2025E.
TSMC guided for strong growth not just in 2024E, but if one digs into management's comments, they actually provided strong visibility into their 2028E internal revenue expectations.
For ASML, its EUV product business is the key indicator to watch. We believe TSMC shares will continue to re-rate even through a period of global economic softness.


TSMC Just Provided Substantial Visibility into Their Long-Term Growth Estimate; ASML Adds Color

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

<ul>
<li>FY'23 growth forecast increased despite push outs in the EUV order book and lower than expected IBB revenues.</li>
<li>Broad-Based recovery is now looking more like a H1'24 scenario with lingering uncertainty as to how it quickly it will unfold thereafter</li>
<li>System sales to China increased from 8% of revenues in Q1'23 to 24% in Q2'23. Non-China DUV order cancellations are being snapped up by China at an unprecedented rate. </li>
</ul>


FY'23 growth forecast increased despite push outs in the EUV order book and lower than expected IBB revenues.
Broad-Based recovery is now looking more like a H1'24 scenario with lingering uncertainty as to how it quickly it will unfold thereafter
System sales to China increased from 8% of revenues in Q1'23 to 24% in Q2'23. Non-China DUV order cancellations are being snapped up by China at an unprecedented rate. 


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Japan Petroleum Exploration / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Japanese companies are buying back more stock than ever before, and recent moves by the TSE and METI are effectively pushing for more.</li>
<li>The new goal is to lift PBR and ROE. The easiest way to lift ROE is reduce E. Low-PBR Cos with excess assets and cross-holdings (outbound and inbound) are targets.</li>
<li>In this insight I look at several possible rankings for potential large buyback targets.</li>
</ul>


Japanese companies are buying back more stock than ever before, and recent moves by the TSE and METI are effectively pushing for more.
The new goal is to lift PBR and ROE. The easiest way to lift ROE is reduce E. Low-PBR Cos with excess assets and cross-holdings (outbound and inbound) are targets.
In this insight I look at several possible rankings for potential large buyback targets.


JAPAN GOVERNANCE CHANGES II - Who Could Surprise on Buybacks? Quant Rankings

<ul>
<li>Reports that Apple is set to release a touchscreen MacBook should help Nitto Denko.</li>
<li>China AI play Cambricon sees revs and OP surge, pointing to more upside for JP FA plays with Sino-semi exposure.</li>
<li>Luxury back in the spotlight may help Shiseido and Kose rebound off multi-month lows.</li>
</ul>


Reports that Apple is set to release a touchscreen MacBook should help Nitto Denko.
China AI play Cambricon sees revs and OP surge, pointing to more upside for JP FA plays with Sino-semi exposure.
Luxury back in the spotlight may help Shiseido and Kose rebound off multi-month lows.


Japan Morning Connection: LDP and Ishin May Sign a Pact to Pave the Way for Japan's First Female PM

Japan

NIKON CORPORATION manufactures and sells cameras, lenses, semiconductor-related equipment, eyeglasses, microscopes, and measuring instruments.

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Nikon Corp (7731 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Memory Back on and Micron Steps Back from Consumer to Focus on Enterprise

A rotation back towards larger cap names and Memory made a bit of a comeback after a few down days. Quantum computing names are back in favor after...

Andrew Jackson

TSMC Just Provided Substantial Visibility into Their Long-Term Growth Estimate; ASML Adds Color

If you dig into the details, TSMC provided substantial insight into the company's internal estimates for long-term revenue. For ASML, we discuss...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

ASML. Sanctions? Moi?

FY'23 growth forecast increased despite push outs in the EUV order book and lower IBB revenues. Semi recovery now a H1'24 scenario with uncertainty...

William Keating

JAPAN GOVERNANCE CHANGES II - Who Could Surprise on Buybacks? Quant Rankings

JAPAN GOVERNANCE: There is a buyback story coming. It will be big. Bigger than the past year or two, and it will continue. What to buy?

Travis Lundy

Japan Morning Connection: LDP and Ishin May Sign a Pact to Pave the Way for Japan's First Female PM

Tech and AI lower in the US including Oracle despite releasing positive long term guidance. May see further upside for Shiseido and Kose if...

Andrew Jackson

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