Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • ABN Amro | Dutch housing market shows further cooling amid persistent supply constraints • Adyen | closes Talon.One and Orb acquisitions • Ahold Delhaize | Kroger acquires Giant Eagle for USD 1.65bn • Vopak | completes acquisition majority stake in GES and makes FID on battery storage project • TomTom | to partner with Transit Technologies • Austrian Post | accelerates e-commerce logistics expansion through euShipments.com • Bnode | partnership with Verisure expands post office service strategy • Bnode | CMA CGM targets acquisition of FedEx Supply Chain activities • Dutch Inflation | falls below 3% in June</li></ul>

In this edition: • ABN Amro | Dutch housing market shows further cooling amid persistent supply constraints • Adyen | closes Talon.One and Orb acquisitions • Ahold Delhaize | Kroger acquires Giant Eagle for USD 1.65bn • Vopak | completes acquisition majority stake in GES and makes FID on battery storage project • TomTom | to partner with Transit Technologies • Austrian Post | accelerates e-commerce logistics expansion through euShipments.com • Bnode | partnership with Verisure expands post office service strategy • Bnode | CMA CGM targets acquisition of FedEx Supply Chain activities • Dutch Inflation | falls below 3% in June

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

In our Macro Overview of Global fund positioning, we cover the following: <ul>
<li>Managers raise EMEA Overweight, hit max underweight in US.</li>
<li>Taiwan key beneficiary of COVID rebalance, India sees outflows.</li>
<li>Cross country exodus seen in Financials/Energy.  Materials reverse long-term decline.</li>
<li>Active managers move towards defensive and secular growth sectors and out of cyclicals.</li>
<li>UK Energy stocks see decline, Dutch Tech stocks continue to attract new investment.</li>
</ul>Taken from our Global fund analysis, covering 391 active global funds with combined AUM of $800bn.

In our Macro Overview of Global fund positioning, we cover the following: 
Managers raise EMEA Overweight, hit max underweight in US.
Taiwan key beneficiary of COVID rebalance, India sees outflows.
Cross country exodus seen in Financials/Energy.  Materials reverse long-term decline.
Active managers move towards defensive and secular growth sectors and out of cyclicals.
UK Energy stocks see decline, Dutch Tech stocks continue to attract new investment.
Taken from our Global fund analysis, covering 391 active global funds with combined AUM of $800bn.

Global Equity Positioning:  Macro Overview.  Raising EU Overweights, Taiwan Vs India, UK Decouples

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

We continue to believe the path of least resistance is higher for global equities. As a result, our outlook remains bullish and we suggest buying any dips. This week we are focusing on Consumer Staples and Health Care, two Sectors that have been less-loved over the past several months. We also highlight additional ideas in the following Sectors: Services, Technology, Financials, Real Estate, Communications, and Utilities.

We continue to believe the path of least resistance is higher for global equities. As a result, our outlook remains bullish and we suggest buying any dips. This week we are focusing on Consumer Staples and Health Care, two Sectors that have been less-loved over the past several months. We also highlight additional ideas in the following Sectors: Services, Technology, Financials, Real Estate, Communications, and Utilities.

EM Equities At New Highs Despite Some Caution Signs

While the major averages are stalling below major resistance and their direction is unclear, there are many individual stocks that continue to act well and that are offering fantastic entry points at current levels. Health Care and Technology remain our two favorite global Sectors, and they are outperforming across all major markets including the US, Europe, Japan, and China. Remain overweight/add exposure. Consumer Staples is another leadership Sector, particularly in the Asia/Pacific region. Lastly, we are also continuing to expand our recommendations to include bottom-up ideas within several other Sectors as the market goes through a bottoming process.

While the major averages are stalling below major resistance and their direction is unclear, there are many individual stocks that continue to act well and that are offering fantastic entry points at current levels. Health Care and Technology remain our two favorite global Sectors, and they are outperforming across all major markets including the US, Europe, Japan, and China. Remain overweight/add exposure. Consumer Staples is another leadership Sector, particularly in the Asia/Pacific region. Lastly, we are also continuing to expand our recommendations to include bottom-up ideas within several other Sectors as the market goes through a bottoming process.

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Covid 19 is an accelerator of secular shifts in consumer and corporate preferences that is magnifying (or will magnify) those business models most equipped to benefit from them. Key Point: Secular Accelerator beneficiaries are different than the “work from home” beneficiaries, however secular accelerator beneficiaries may also be work from home beneficiaries.<div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</div>

Covid 19 is an accelerator of secular shifts in consumer and corporate preferences that is magnifying (or will magnify) those business models most equipped to benefit from them. Key Point: Secular Accelerator beneficiaries are different than the “work from home” beneficiaries, however secular accelerator beneficiaries may also be work from home beneficiaries.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Coronavirus as Secular Accelerator III: Fintech / Software Edition

Netherlands

Adyen N.V. provides payment solutions. The Company offers a platform that enable merchants and businesses to process payments online, mobile, and point-of-sale systems with payment methods including card schemes, mobile wallets, and other local methods. Adyen serves customers worldwide.

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Adyen BV (ADYEN NA)

FedEx Corp - What's News in Amsterdam

In this edition: • ABN Amro | Dutch housing market shows further cooling amid persistent supply constraints • Adyen | closes Talon.One and Orb...

The IDEA!

Global Equity Positioning: Macro Overview. Raising EU Overweights, Taiwan Vs India, UK Decouples

In our Macro Overview of Global fund positioning, we cover the following: Managers raise EMEA Overweight, hit max underweight in US. Taiwan key...

Steven Holden

EM Equities At New Highs Despite Some Caution Signs

We continue to believe the path of least resistance is higher for global equities. As a result, our outlook remains bullish and we suggest buying...

Vermilion Research

Global Equities: Lower Highs Forming

While the major averages are stalling below major resistance and their direction is unclear, there are many individual stocks that continue to act...

Vermilion Research

Coronavirus as Secular Accelerator III: Fintech / Software Edition

Covid 19 is an accelerator of secular shifts in consumer and corporate preferences that is magnifying (or will magnify) those business models most...

Aaron Gabin

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