New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

Vista Group International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Sentiment on Vista Group (VGL) has softened in recent months, reflecting: (1) weaker than expected box office trends; (2) a lack of confirmation regarding a previously flagged significant enterprise win; and (3) the market digesting accelerated spend to support the cloud transition.</li><li>Despite these perceived headwinds, VGL reiterated its 2025 site count guidance at a November conference and has not walked back FY25 revenue and margin guidance.</li><li>VGL has de-rated by ~-18% over the last three months to trade at ~17.6x consensus EV/EBITDA 12-month forward, which we view as attractive relative to our forecast +30% EBITDA CAGR from FY25 to FY28.</li></ul>

Sentiment on Vista Group (VGL) has softened in recent months, reflecting: (1) weaker than expected box office trends; (2) a lack of confirmation regarding a previously flagged significant enterprise win; and (3) the market digesting accelerated spend to support the cloud transition.Despite these perceived headwinds, VGL reiterated its 2025 site count guidance at a November conference and has not walked back FY25 revenue and margin guidance.VGL has de-rated by ~-18% over the last three months to trade at ~17.6x consensus EV/EBITDA 12-month forward, which we view as attractive relative to our forecast +30% EBITDA CAGR from FY25 to FY28.

Vista Group Box Office Blues, Cloud Still Silver Lined

<ul><li>September’s soft US box office data highlights the challenge of the film industry reaching VGL’s US$9.4bn estimate in FY25, with the +10% growth assumption now unlikely to be achieved given the current slate of upcoming films and the US economy.</li><li>VGL has called out a major contract that will be needed to meet FY25 expectations, and we have yet to receive notification of this signing.</li><li>We consider an announcement of the choice of a global payments supplier, or even a pilot programme, as imminent.</li></ul>

September’s soft US box office data highlights the challenge of the film industry reaching VGL’s US$9.4bn estimate in FY25, with the +10% growth assumption now unlikely to be achieved given the current slate of upcoming films and the US economy.VGL has called out a major contract that will be needed to meet FY25 expectations, and we have yet to receive notification of this signing.We consider an announcement of the choice of a global payments supplier, or even a pilot programme, as imminent.

Vista Group Box Office Data Fades as Payments Near Debut

Netherlands

Adyen N.V. provides payment solutions. The Company offers a platform that enable merchants and businesses to process payments online, mobile, and point-of-sale systems with payment methods including card schemes, mobile wallets, and other local methods. Adyen serves customers worldwide.

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Adyen BV (ADYEN NA)

Vista Group Box Office Blues, Cloud Still Silver Lined

Despite these perceived headwinds, VGL reiterated its 2025 site count guidance at a November conference and has not walked back FY25 revenue and...

Forsyth Barr

Vista Group Box Office Data Fades as Payments Near Debut

VGL has called out a major contract that will be needed to meet FY25 expectations, and we have yet to receive notification of this signing.

Forsyth Barr

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