European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>CNMV approves Neinor’s €21.335 voluntary OPA; minorities unlikely to tender, making the mandatory €24 offer the highest-probability exit with minimal regulatory risk.</li>
<li>Aedas trades at €23.65, pricing a near-certain €24 outcome. Remaining 1.48% spread offers a high-certainty, mid–single-digit annualized IRR driven primarily by timing, not deal completion.</li>
<li>Key tail event is a &gt;90% acceptance squeeze-out at €21.335, but probability remains extremely low. Most realistic path is a mandatory €24 OPA settling mid–February 2026.</li>
</ul>


CNMV approves Neinor’s €21.335 voluntary OPA; minorities unlikely to tender, making the mandatory €24 offer the highest-probability exit with minimal regulatory risk.
Aedas trades at €23.65, pricing a near-certain €24 outcome. Remaining 1.48% spread offers a high-certainty, mid–single-digit annualized IRR driven primarily by timing, not deal completion.
Key tail event is a &gt;90% acceptance squeeze-out at €21.335, but probability remains extremely low. Most realistic path is a mandatory €24 OPA settling mid–February 2026.


CNMV Clears Neinor’s OPA; Mandatory €24 Offer for Aedas Minorities Now Base Case

<ul>
<li>Neinor will complete the voluntary OPA at €21.335 with Castlelake’s 79%, then launch a mandatory €24/share offer for minorities if acceptance falls below 50%, effectively setting a regulatory floor.</li>
<li>Aedas shares jumped to €23.65 as the market prices a near-certain €24 exit. The resulting 1.5% spread offers a mid–single-digit annualized return, driven mainly by timeline rather than deal risk.</li>
<li>Next steps include CNMV approval of the voluntary OPA, acceptance verification, and automatic escalation to the mandatory €24 offer. Execution risk remains minimal; timing drift is now the main variable.</li>
</ul>


Neinor will complete the voluntary OPA at €21.335 with Castlelake’s 79%, then launch a mandatory €24/share offer for minorities if acceptance falls below 50%, effectively setting a regulatory floor.
Aedas shares jumped to €23.65 as the market prices a near-certain €24 exit. The resulting 1.5% spread offers a mid–single-digit annualized return, driven mainly by timeline rather than deal risk.
Next steps include CNMV approval of the voluntary OPA, acceptance verification, and automatic escalation to the mandatory €24 offer. Execution risk remains minimal; timing drift is now the main variable.


Neinor / Aedas Homes – Second OPA at €24 for Minorities Reshapes the Arb

<ul>
<li>Neinor’s takeover of Aedas is effectively secured by Castlelake’s 79% lock-in; with FDI clearance obtained and the 20 October EGM approaching, execution risk is minimal, spread remains modest.</li>
<li>At €21.335/share, the offer implies a 1.35% gross spread versus €21.05; base-case annualized return ~6.8% for 75 days, with IRR sensitive to settlement timing and entry price.</li>
<li>Upside from a sweetener looks limited; downside tied mainly to timing drift, not deal break. Minority leverage persists for delisting, but near-term event-driven positioning is purely a carry trade.</li>
</ul>


Neinor’s takeover of Aedas is effectively secured by Castlelake’s 79% lock-in; with FDI clearance obtained and the 20 October EGM approaching, execution risk is minimal, spread remains modest.
At €21.335/share, the offer implies a 1.35% gross spread versus €21.05; base-case annualized return ~6.8% for 75 days, with IRR sensitive to settlement timing and entry price.
Upside from a sweetener looks limited; downside tied mainly to timing drift, not deal break. Minority leverage persists for delisting, but near-term event-driven positioning is purely a carry trade.


Neinor. Aedas Homes: EGM Set, Regulatory Clearance Secured — But No Sweetener Yet

<ul>
<li>Neinor’s offer is strategically sound but priced below NAV, raising legal and minority resistance risks.</li>
<li>Castlelake’s 79% commitment secures majority control, but a squeeze-out or delisting still requires a higher bid.</li>
<li>A revised offer near €26.50 would align interests and improve execution certainty at minimal cost to Neinor.</li>
</ul>


Neinor’s offer is strategically sound but priced below NAV, raising legal and minority resistance risks.
Castlelake’s 79% commitment secures majority control, but a squeeze-out or delisting still requires a higher bid.
A revised offer near €26.50 would align interests and improve execution certainty at minimal cost to Neinor.


Neinor/Aedas Homes: Locked-In Majority, But Minorities May Still Get Paid

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aedas-homes-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28927:1" rel="noopener">Aedas Homes SA (AEDAS SM)</a> stake sale: Castlelake's stake is worth at least €897 million, with potential buyers Hines and Starwood likely to launch a mandatory public tender offer (OPA).</li>
<li>Strategic Appeal: 21,200-home landbank, and market leadership attract international real estate investors, highlighting Spain's strong housing demand and rising property prices.</li>
<li>Possible offers, in line with past transactions, range between 10% discount to NAV to parity with it (which could be defended as "equitable price". Long.</li>
</ul>



Aedas Homes SA (AEDAS SM) stake sale: Castlelake's stake is worth at least €897 million, with potential buyers Hines and Starwood likely to launch a mandatory public tender offer (OPA).
Strategic Appeal: 21,200-home landbank, and market leadership attract international real estate investors, highlighting Spain's strong housing demand and rising property prices.
Possible offers, in line with past transactions, range between 10% discount to NAV to parity with it (which could be defended as "equitable price". Long.


Potential Takeover of Aedas Homes by Hines and Starwood

Spain

Aedas Homes S.A.U. operates as a real estate developer. The Company designs homes and residential projects, as well as provides development of plots of land. Aedas Homes serves property sector in Spain.

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Aedas Homes SA (AEDAS SM)

CNMV Clears Neinor’s OPA; Mandatory €24 Offer for Aedas Minorities Now Base Case

CNMV approval confirms Neinor’s voluntary OPA, but minorities are positioned for a mandatory €24 offer. With Aedas at €23.65, a near-certain...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Neinor / Aedas Homes – Second OPA at €24 for Minorities Reshapes the Arb

Aedas now trades toward a near-certain €24 mandatory OPA for minorities. With regulatory mechanics forcing price floor, remaining spread offers a...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Neinor. Aedas Homes: EGM Set, Regulatory Clearance Secured — But No Sweetener Yet

Neinor’s €21.335/share bid for Aedas is locked in by Castlelake, with approvals progressing. Minimal risk, modest 1.35% spread, ~6–8% IRR: a...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Neinor/Aedas Homes: Locked-In Majority, But Minorities May Still Get Paid

Neinor’s bid for Aedas unlocks scale and synergy, but is priced too low. A sweetened offer is likely, making Aedas an attractive event-driven play...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Potential Takeover of Aedas Homes by Hines and Starwood

Castlelake's stake in Aedas Homes SA valued at €897 million, potential buyers Hines and Starwood may launch mandatory public tender offer. Strong...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CNMV Clears Neinor’s OPA; Mandatory €24 Offer for Aedas Minorities Now Base Case

CNMV approval confirms Neinor’s voluntary OPA, but minorities are positioned for a mandatory €24 offer. With Aedas at €23.65, a near-certain...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Neinor / Aedas Homes – Second OPA at €24 for Minorities Reshapes the Arb

Aedas now trades toward a near-certain €24 mandatory OPA for minorities. With regulatory mechanics forcing price floor, remaining spread offers a...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Neinor. Aedas Homes: EGM Set, Regulatory Clearance Secured — But No Sweetener Yet

Neinor’s €21.335/share bid for Aedas is locked in by Castlelake, with approvals progressing. Minimal risk, modest 1.35% spread, ~6–8% IRR: a...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Neinor/Aedas Homes: Locked-In Majority, But Minorities May Still Get Paid

Neinor’s bid for Aedas unlocks scale and synergy, but is priced too low. A sweetened offer is likely, making Aedas an attractive event-driven play...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Potential Takeover of Aedas Homes by Hines and Starwood

​Castlelake's stake in Aedas Homes SA valued at €897 million, potential buyers Hines and Starwood may launch mandatory public tender offer. Strong...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Castlelake's stake in Aedas Homes SA valued at €897 million, potential buyers Hines and Starwood may launch mandatory public tender offer. Strong...