Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aem-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11019:1" rel="noopener">AEM (AEM SP)</a> published dismal 1Q24 results and kept its modest guidance for 1H24.</li>
<li>AEM has announced new customer wins going into FY25 which should improve results materially next year. The sell-side has downgraded estimates aggressively making room for upside surprises next year.</li>
<li>AEM has seen an implosion in investor confidence because of the inventory issues, and slow orders from its key customer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a>. Long-term investors should accumulate here. </li>
</ul>



AEM (AEM SP) published dismal 1Q24 results and kept its modest guidance for 1H24.
AEM has announced new customer wins going into FY25 which should improve results materially next year. The sell-side has downgraded estimates aggressively making room for upside surprises next year.
AEM has seen an implosion in investor confidence because of the inventory issues, and slow orders from its key customer Intel Corp (INTC US). Long-term investors should accumulate here. 


AEM Holdings: More Short-Term Pain; Highly Attractive Valuation for Long-Term Investors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aem-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11019:1" rel="noopener">AEM (AEM SP)</a> reported FY23 results which showed a decline of 45% in annual revenues and a small loss on the net income line. Guidance is only given for 1H24.</li>
<li>Senior management will forego all bonuses, the CFO departs and the old CEO is coming back as a consultant. AEM's stock closed down 20% after the FY23 results publication.</li>
<li>A potential new Trump presidency would push an "America First" agenda likely benefiting Intel and indirectly AEM in a big way.</li>
</ul>



AEM (AEM SP) reported FY23 results which showed a decline of 45% in annual revenues and a small loss on the net income line. Guidance is only given for 1H24.
Senior management will forego all bonuses, the CFO departs and the old CEO is coming back as a consultant. AEM's stock closed down 20% after the FY23 results publication.
A potential new Trump presidency would push an "America First" agenda likely benefiting Intel and indirectly AEM in a big way.


AEM: Cautious Guidance, but AI Exposure Highlighted and Company Could Benefit from Trump Re-Election

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The 2024 vintage of "5 High Conviction Ideas" showed three stocks with positive performance and two with losses.</li>
<li>Our best performer was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/plover-bay-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24191:1" rel="noopener">Plover Bay Technologies (1523 HK)</a> which increased 157% in FY24. While our worst performer was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aem-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11019:1" rel="noopener">AEM (AEM SP)</a> down over 60%.</li>
<li>Our 2025 vintage of top ideas is heavily copper-focused as we continue to believe the supply crunch in copper is real and set to get worse.</li>
</ul>


The 2024 vintage of "5 High Conviction Ideas" showed three stocks with positive performance and two with losses.
Our best performer was Plover Bay Technologies (1523 HK) which increased 157% in FY24. While our worst performer was AEM (AEM SP) down over 60%.
Our 2025 vintage of top ideas is heavily copper-focused as we continue to believe the supply crunch in copper is real and set to get worse.


Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2024...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2025

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The past week saw insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prodia-widyahusada" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23663:1" rel="noopener">Prodia (PRDA IJ)</a> after a management call and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aem-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11019:1" rel="noopener">AEM (AEM SP)</a> post-management changes, with some economic commentary on Thailand. </li>
<li>There was also an insight on Global Credit Growth from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/daniel-tabbush" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:12" rel="noopener">Daniel Tabbush</a> and the CrossASEAN Ground Zero Insight looking at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">Vinfast (VFS US)</a>, digital payments, and social commerce player Evermos.</li>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.</li>
</ul>


The past week saw insights on Prodia (PRDA IJ) after a management call and AEM (AEM SP) post-management changes, with some economic commentary on Thailand. 
There was also an insight on Global Credit Growth from Daniel Tabbush and the CrossASEAN Ground Zero Insight looking at Vinfast (VFS US), digital payments, and social commerce player Evermos.
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Prodia Ready, AEM, and Vinfast

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

<ul><li>Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks over the five trading sessions through to May 16, with S$28.5 million of net institutional outflow, as 25 primary-listed companies conducted buybacks with a total consideration of S$32.5 million.</li><li>Leading the net institutional outflow over the five sessions were Seatrium, UMS Holdings, Singapore Airlines, Mapletree Logistics Trust, Wilmar International, DBS, AEM Holdings, Jardine Matheson Holdings, Jardine Cycle & Carriage and City Developments.</li><li>Between May 9 and 15, Raffles Medical Group executive chairman Loo Choon Yong acquired 2.6 million shares at an average price of S$1.03 per share.</li></ul>

Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks over the five trading sessions through to May 16, with S$28.5 million of net institutional outflow, as 25 primary-listed companies conducted buybacks with a total consideration of S$32.5 million.Leading the net institutional outflow over the five sessions were Seatrium, UMS Holdings, Singapore Airlines, Mapletree Logistics Trust, Wilmar International, DBS, AEM Holdings, Jardine Matheson Holdings, Jardine Cycle & Carriage and City Developments.Between May 9 and 15, Raffles Medical Group executive chairman Loo Choon Yong acquired 2.6 million shares at an average price of S$1.03 per share.

Wilmar and Raffles Medical chairmen continue buying spree

Singapore

AEM Holdings Limited designs and manufactures semiconductor manufacturing equipment and related tooling parts and precision machining of components for semiconductor industry.  The Company also manufactures and distributes electronics, engineering, chemical and related products. AEM provides engineering services.

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AEM (AEM SP)

AEM Holdings: More Short-Term Pain; Highly Attractive Valuation for Long-Term Investors

AEM posted a very weak quarter. Business should improve dramatically by FY25. Long-term investors should accumulate aggressively on current weakness.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

AEM: Cautious Guidance, but AI Exposure Highlighted and Company Could Benefit from Trump Re-Election

AEM has had a horrific start to FY24. Inventory issues, CFO and COO departures, and a weak business outlook. FY24 guidance was weak and visibility...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2024...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2025

2024's "5 High Conviction Ideas" had mixed results, with Plover Bay Technologies soaring 157% while AEM Holdings plummeted over 60%. 2025's focus...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Prodia Ready, AEM, and Vinfast

The past week saw insights on Prodia (PRDA IJ) after a management call and AEM (AEM SP) post-management changes, with some economic commentary on...

Angus Mackintosh

Wilmar and Raffles Medical chairmen continue buying spree

Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks over the five trading sessions through to May 16, with S$28.5 million of net institutional...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

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AEM Holdings: More Short-Term Pain; Highly Attractive Valuation for Long-Term Investors

AEM posted a very weak quarter. Business should improve dramatically by FY25. Long-term investors should accumulate aggressively on current weakness.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

AEM: Cautious Guidance, but AI Exposure Highlighted and Company Could Benefit from Trump Re-Election

AEM has had a horrific start to FY24. Inventory issues, CFO and COO departures, and a weak business outlook. FY24 guidance was weak and visibility...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2024...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2025

​2024's "5 High Conviction Ideas" had mixed results, with Plover Bay Technologies soaring 157% while AEM Holdings plummeted over 60%. 2025's focus...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Prodia Ready, AEM, and Vinfast

The past week saw insights on Prodia (PRDA IJ) after a management call and AEM (AEM SP) post-management changes, with some economic commentary on...

Angus Mackintosh

Wilmar and Raffles Medical chairmen continue buying spree

Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks over the five trading sessions through to May 16, with S$28.5 million of net institutional...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

2024's "5 High Conviction Ideas" had mixed results, with Plover Bay Technologies soaring 157% while AEM Holdings plummeted over 60%. 2025's focus...