Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aem-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11019:1" rel="noopener">AEM (AEM SP)</a> reported record revenues and profits for FY22. Guidance for FY23 was underwhelming and margin pressure was much larger than feared</li>
<li>On an 18-24 month horizon, we think AEM outperforms but in the short-term stock could see more downside as worries about margin pressure persist</li>
<li>Lower Fair Value estimate to 6 SGD from 8 SGD (15x 0.40 EPS FY24).</li>
</ul>



AEM (AEM SP) reported record revenues and profits for FY22. Guidance for FY23 was underwhelming and margin pressure was much larger than feared
On an 18-24 month horizon, we think AEM outperforms but in the short-term stock could see more downside as worries about margin pressure persist
Lower Fair Value estimate to 6 SGD from 8 SGD (15x 0.40 EPS FY24).


AEM: 2023 Is a Transition Year, Back to 0.40 EPS in 2024

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

<ul><li>Venture, UMS & Frencken have ranked as Singapore’s most traded Technology stocks over the past four weeks, with the trio averaging 14% gains, while booking S$48 million of net fund inflows.</li><li>This follows average declines of 24% in total return in 2022 on S$139 million of net fund outflows.</li><li>These 14 stocks have averaged 10% gains over the past four weeks, while booking S$42 million of net fund inflows, outpacing the STI, and contrary to the broader Singapore stock market which has booked net fund outflows.</li></ul>

Venture, UMS & Frencken have ranked as Singapore’s most traded Technology stocks over the past four weeks, with the trio averaging 14% gains, while booking S$48 million of net fund inflows.This follows average declines of 24% in total return in 2022 on S$139 million of net fund outflows.These 14 stocks have averaged 10% gains over the past four weeks, while booking S$42 million of net fund inflows, outpacing the STI, and contrary to the broader Singapore stock market which has booked net fund outflows.

Technology Sector Led Global Stocks in January

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The 2022 vintage of "5 High Conviction Ideas" had the weakest performance since 2017, with only China Shineway posting a positive return</li>
<li>Olam, Rex and Starhub all declined approximately 16% in FY22</li>
<li>Our 2023 vintage will hopefully perform better with 4 out of 5 favorites in the commodity space</li>
</ul>


The 2022 vintage of "5 High Conviction Ideas" had the weakest performance since 2017, with only China Shineway posting a positive return
Olam, Rex and Starhub all declined approximately 16% in FY22
Our 2023 vintage will hopefully perform better with 4 out of 5 favorites in the commodity space


Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2022...And 5 High Conviction Ideas Going into 2023

<ul>
<li>AEM reported its best PBT 3Q and 9M22 results ever, yet investors remain skeptical of its FY23 outlook</li>
<li>Management reiterated guidance and provided a bullish statement about the coming years</li>
<li>AEM EPS likely to reach at least 0.42 SGD leaving the stock trading at only 7.8x P/E FY22 </li>
</ul>


AEM reported its best PBT 3Q and 9M22 results ever, yet investors remain skeptical of its FY23 outlook
Management reiterated guidance and provided a bullish statement about the coming years
AEM EPS likely to reach at least 0.42 SGD leaving the stock trading at only 7.8x P/E FY22 


AEM: Another Solid Earnings Report, but Mr. Market Remains Worried on Outlook

<ul><li>Technology Stocks have been among the weakest performing stocks across the globe so far this year, while still maintaining the strongest stock returns since the end of 2019.</li><li>Similarly, in Singapore, the 10 most traded stocks relevant to the Technology Sector have averaged 33% declines in total return this year, bringing the average total return of the eight stocks listed for the full period from the end of 2019 to 68%.</li><li>Last week Singapore’s 10 most traded Technology-related stocks averaged double-digit declines, with iFAST Corporation and Silverlake Axis the most defensive of the 10 stocks, averaging 4% declines, while AEM Holdings and UMS Holdings averaged 22% declines.</li></ul>

Technology Stocks have been among the weakest performing stocks across the globe so far this year, while still maintaining the strongest stock returns since the end of 2019.Similarly, in Singapore, the 10 most traded stocks relevant to the Technology Sector have averaged 33% declines in total return this year, bringing the average total return of the eight stocks listed for the full period from the end of 2019 to 68%.Last week Singapore’s 10 most traded Technology-related stocks averaged double-digit declines, with iFAST Corporation and Silverlake Axis the most defensive of the 10 stocks, averaging 4% declines, while AEM Holdings and UMS Holdings averaged 22% declines.

Technology Stocks Take Spotlight on US Trade Policy & Growth Outlook 

Singapore

AEM Holdings Limited designs and manufactures semiconductor manufacturing equipment and related tooling parts and precision machining of components for semiconductor industry.  The Company also manufactures and distributes electronics, engineering, chemical and related products. AEM provides engineering services.

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AEM (AEM SP)

AEM: 2023 Is a Transition Year, Back to 0.40 EPS in 2024

AEM reported record revenues and profits in FY22. The outlook for FY23 is weak as management thinks of it as a transition year.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Technology Sector Led Global Stocks in January

Venture, UMS & Frencken have ranked as Singapore’s most traded Technology stocks over the past four weeks, with the trio averaging 14% gains,...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2022...And 5 High Conviction Ideas Going into 2023

Our FY22 vintage of High Conviction Ideas had its weakest performance since FY17. We hope for better returns for our commodity-focused FY23 selection.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

AEM: Another Solid Earnings Report, but Mr. Market Remains Worried on Outlook

AEM reported solid results over the first 9 months. None of this seems to matter as the market has sold off the entire tech sector and investors do...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Technology Stocks Take Spotlight on US Trade Policy & Growth Outlook

Technology Stocks have been among the weakest performing stocks across the globe so far this year, while still maintaining the strongest stock...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

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