Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Post-Covid, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a> began to deliver real profit growth but 1H2024 showed it cannot rest on its laurels. </li>
<li>While it’ll be happy not to be worrying about a takeover bid like its rival, Seven &amp; I, it still doesn’t have a profit machine similar to Seven Eleven Japan.</li>
<li>Welcia helps and so does expanding e-commerce but there is still plenty of room for cutting overhead.</li>
</ul>


Post-Covid, Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) began to deliver real profit growth but 1H2024 showed it cannot rest on its laurels. 
While it’ll be happy not to be worrying about a takeover bid like its rival, Seven &amp; I, it still doesn’t have a profit machine similar to Seven Eleven Japan.
Welcia helps and so does expanding e-commerce but there is still plenty of room for cutting overhead.


Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Seven Eleven's future usually gets outlined as: Japan ex-growth and only growth is overseas. This is wrong. While the CVS sector is saturated, Seven Eleven itself has not reached saturation.</li>
<li>There are major areas of growth, both territorially and new offshoot businesses.  Seven is already 32% more efficient than Lawson but more to come.</li>
<li>Here we take a deep dive into the state of CVS retailing in Japan and how Seven Eleven does, and will, fit into this – and how it will grow.</li>
</ul>


Seven Eleven's future usually gets outlined as: Japan ex-growth and only growth is overseas. This is wrong. While the CVS sector is saturated, Seven Eleven itself has not reached saturation.
There are major areas of growth, both territorially and new offshoot businesses.  Seven is already 32% more efficient than Lawson but more to come.
Here we take a deep dive into the state of CVS retailing in Japan and how Seven Eleven does, and will, fit into this – and how it will grow.


Even in Japan, Significant Growth Potential for Seven Eleven and Other CVS

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> did not dispute the <a href="https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20241119/k10014643321000.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NHK article’s</a> claims that the founding family aims to raise buyout funds by the end of the fiscal year.</li>
<li>Since 13 November, there have been conflicting press reports on the MBO offer price. The NHK article’s implied offer price of JPY3,082 seems the most credible. </li>
<li>The MBO’s aggressive completion timeline pressures <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alimentation-couche-tard-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25103:1" rel="noopener">Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)</a> to respond by either overbidding, working with the founding family at the back-end or walking away.</li>
</ul>



Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) did not dispute the NHK article’s claims that the founding family aims to raise buyout funds by the end of the fiscal year.
Since 13 November, there have been conflicting press reports on the MBO offer price. The NHK article’s implied offer price of JPY3,082 seems the most credible. 
The MBO’s aggressive completion timeline pressures Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) to respond by either overbidding, working with the founding family at the back-end or walking away.


Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Evaluating the Potential MBO

<ul>
<li>In response to media reports, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> confirmed receiving a non-binding proposal from Junro Ito (founder’s son) and Ito-Kogyo. No terms were disclosed.</li>
<li>Bloomberg suggests an MBO deal worth up to JPY9 trillion (US$58 billion), which implies an offer of JPY3,467.89, a 39.3% premium to the last close price.</li>
<li>The "white knight" MBO undermines <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alimentation-couche-tard-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25103:1" rel="noopener">Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)</a>’s offer and is a proxy for the restructuring plan's value. Couche-Tard will likely walk if a binding MBO proposal emerges.</li>
</ul>


In response to media reports, Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) confirmed receiving a non-binding proposal from Junro Ito (founder’s son) and Ito-Kogyo. No terms were disclosed.
Bloomberg suggests an MBO deal worth up to JPY9 trillion (US$58 billion), which implies an offer of JPY3,467.89, a 39.3% premium to the last close price.
The "white knight" MBO undermines Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)’s offer and is a proxy for the restructuring plan's value. Couche-Tard will likely walk if a binding MBO proposal emerges.


Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): The Rumoured MBO Price Underscores the Trapped Value

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The shakeout in clothing and fashion retailing continues, with most of the good fortune spread amongst a smaller group of either very large or very small retail chains and brands. </li>
<li>In specialty, lower cost national chains largely located in the suburbs continued to increase share but premium fashion retailers also had a great year boosting profits.</li>
<li>More dramatic was the startling growth of a few department stores which helped the format increase share of the apparel market for only the 4th time in 20 years.</li>
</ul>


The shakeout in clothing and fashion retailing continues, with most of the good fortune spread amongst a smaller group of either very large or very small retail chains and brands. 
In specialty, lower cost national chains largely located in the suburbs continued to increase share but premium fashion retailers also had a great year boosting profits.
More dramatic was the startling growth of a few department stores which helped the format increase share of the apparel market for only the 4th time in 20 years.


Japan Fashion Retailing: Stores Still Popular and Profit Soars for Some

Japan

AEON CO., LTD. operates general merchandise stores, supermarkets, and convenience stores throughout Japan. The Company is also engaged in women's and casual clothing store business, development business of commercial property, and financing service through the subsidiaries.

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Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)

Aeon (8267JP): Sales Up, Profit Down

Post-Covid, Aeon Co Ltd has seen significant profit growth but must address profit challenges and overhead costs to rival Seven & I's profit...

Michael Causton

Even in Japan, Significant Growth Potential for Seven Eleven and Other CVS

Contrary to popular belief, Seven Eleven in Japan is not saturated and has room for growth both territorially and new ventures. We look at Seven's...

Michael Causton

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Evaluating the Potential MBO

The NHK article increases the credibility of the MBO. The completion time pressures Couche-Tard to respond by either overbidding, working on a...

Arun George

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): The Rumoured MBO Price Underscores the Trapped Value

The "white knight" MBO undermines Couche-Tard’s offer and is a proxy for the restructuring plan's value. Couche-Tard will likely walk if a binding...

Arun George

Japan Fashion Retailing: Stores Still Popular and Profit Soars for Some

A major review of Japanese clothing retail markets: the ongoing shakeout benefits large and small chains, but profit growth across the sector is...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Aeon (8267JP): Sales Up, Profit Down

​Post-Covid, Aeon Co Ltd has seen significant profit growth but must address profit challenges and overhead costs to rival Seven & I's profit...

Michael Causton

Even in Japan, Significant Growth Potential for Seven Eleven and Other CVS

​Contrary to popular belief, Seven Eleven in Japan is not saturated and has room for growth both territorially and new ventures. We look at Seven's...

Michael Causton

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Evaluating the Potential MBO

The NHK article increases the credibility of the MBO. The completion time pressures Couche-Tard to respond by either overbidding, working on a...

Arun George

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): The Rumoured MBO Price Underscores the Trapped Value

The "white knight" MBO undermines Couche-Tard’s offer and is a proxy for the restructuring plan's value. Couche-Tard will likely walk if a binding...

Arun George

Japan Fashion Retailing: Stores Still Popular and Profit Soars for Some

A major review of Japanese clothing retail markets: ​the ongoing shakeout benefits large and small chains, but profit growth across the sector is...

Michael Causton

Post-Covid, Aeon Co Ltd has seen significant profit growth but must address profit challenges and overhead costs to rival Seven & I's profit...

Contrary to popular belief, Seven Eleven in Japan is not saturated and has room for growth both territorially and new ventures. We look at Seven's...

A major review of Japanese clothing retail markets: the ongoing shakeout benefits large and small chains, but profit growth across the sector is...