Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Post-Covid, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a> began to deliver real profit growth but 1H2024 showed it cannot rest on its laurels. </li>
<li>While it’ll be happy not to be worrying about a takeover bid like its rival, Seven &amp; I, it still doesn’t have a profit machine similar to Seven Eleven Japan.</li>
<li>Welcia helps and so does expanding e-commerce but there is still plenty of room for cutting overhead.</li>
</ul>


Post-Covid, Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) began to deliver real profit growth but 1H2024 showed it cannot rest on its laurels. 
While it’ll be happy not to be worrying about a takeover bid like its rival, Seven &amp; I, it still doesn’t have a profit machine similar to Seven Eleven Japan.
Welcia helps and so does expanding e-commerce but there is still plenty of room for cutting overhead.


Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Last year saw the consolidation of several supermarket chains in Shikoku and Chugoku by Aeon, creating Japan’s largest supermarket group. </li>
<li>Now, Aeon has now announced that it will expand its existing stake in Inageya, rolling the company into USMH and creating another, even larger food operation and Japan's biggest yet.</li>
<li>Aeon is looking for dominance in Tokyo and may seek more acquisitions but rivals are unlikely to give it a free hand nor say no to acquisitions of their own.</li>
</ul>


Last year saw the consolidation of several supermarket chains in Shikoku and Chugoku by Aeon, creating Japan’s largest supermarket group. 
Now, Aeon has now announced that it will expand its existing stake in Inageya, rolling the company into USMH and creating another, even larger food operation and Japan's biggest yet.
Aeon is looking for dominance in Tokyo and may seek more acquisitions but rivals are unlikely to give it a free hand nor say no to acquisitions of their own.


Aeon Will Own Japan’s Two Largest Supermarket Groups with Inageya Purchase

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese retail sector in 2021-22 and is designed to provide a complete overview for any investor in Japanese retail/consumer markets.</li>
<li>FY2021-22 proved a rebound year for retailers at the sector level. But on a company by company basis, there has been radical divergence between the best and the rest. </li>
<li>We look at the reasons for this divergence and the implications for Japanese retail and consumer firms in the years ahead.</li>
</ul>


The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese retail sector in 2021-22 and is designed to provide a complete overview for any investor in Japanese retail/consumer markets.
FY2021-22 proved a rebound year for retailers at the sector level. But on a company by company basis, there has been radical divergence between the best and the rest. 
We look at the reasons for this divergence and the implications for Japanese retail and consumer firms in the years ahead.


Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>On 10 January, Bloomberg reported that Apollo is considering an equity commitment of JPY1.5 trillion in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> MBO. </li>
<li>Securing financing is a key challenge for the MBO. Apollo’s involvement suggests a shift to a higher mix of equity vs debt, which should ease concerns about securing debt financing. </li>
<li>The article suggests that the MBO valuation could be lower than previously reported. However, 7&amp;i's underlying value supports a JPY8 trillion MBO valuation (market cap). </li>
</ul>


On 10 January, Bloomberg reported that Apollo is considering an equity commitment of JPY1.5 trillion in the Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) MBO. 
Securing financing is a key challenge for the MBO. Apollo’s involvement suggests a shift to a higher mix of equity vs debt, which should ease concerns about securing debt financing. 
The article suggests that the MBO valuation could be lower than previously reported. However, 7&amp;i's underlying value supports a JPY8 trillion MBO valuation (market cap). 


Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): The MBO Is Still Alive and Kicking

<ul>
<li>Restrictions on driver overtime <strong>due in April</strong> are forcing logistics rationalisation across supply chains.</li>
<li>Aeon is one of the few retailers that runs its own logistics platforms but, even so, changes to logistics practices will feed through to how stores are merchandised</li>
<li>This could result in competitive pressure on smaller supermarket chains.</li>
</ul>


Restrictions on driver overtime due in April are forcing logistics rationalisation across supply chains.
Aeon is one of the few retailers that runs its own logistics platforms but, even so, changes to logistics practices will feed through to how stores are merchandised
This could result in competitive pressure on smaller supermarket chains.


Japan

AEON CO., LTD. operates general merchandise stores, supermarkets, and convenience stores throughout Japan. The Company is also engaged in women's and casual clothing store business, development business of commercial property, and financing service through the subsidiaries.

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Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)

Aeon (8267JP): Sales Up, Profit Down

Post-Covid, Aeon Co Ltd has seen significant profit growth but must address profit challenges and overhead costs to rival Seven & I's profit...

Michael Causton

Aeon Will Own Japan’s Two Largest Supermarket Groups with Inageya Purchase

Aeon will buy a majority stake in Inageya, consolidating its market share in the Tokyo region just as Seven & I has confirmed a focus on the Tokyo...

Michael Causton

Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

There is increasing divergence between the winners and losers in Japanese retailing and the following in-depth review looks at performance in the...

Michael Causton

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): The MBO Is Still Alive and Kicking

Apollo’s involvement strongly signals the viability of the Ito family MBO. 7&i's underlying value supports a JPY8 trillion MBO valuation.

Arun George

Aeon: Logistics Issues Drive Efficiency

Driver overtime restrictions in April are causing logistics changes, impacting supply chains and potentially pressuring smaller supermarket chains...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Aeon (8267JP): Sales Up, Profit Down

​Post-Covid, Aeon Co Ltd has seen significant profit growth but must address profit challenges and overhead costs to rival Seven & I's profit...

Michael Causton

Aeon Will Own Japan’s Two Largest Supermarket Groups with Inageya Purchase

Aeon will buy a majority stake in Inageya, consolidating its market share in the Tokyo region just as Seven & I has confirmed a focus on the Tokyo...

Michael Causton

Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

There is increasing divergence between the winners and losers in Japanese retailing and the following in-depth review looks at performance in the...

Michael Causton

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): The MBO Is Still Alive and Kicking

Apollo’s involvement strongly signals the viability of the Ito family MBO. 7&i's underlying value supports a JPY8 trillion MBO valuation.

Arun George

Aeon: Logistics Issues Drive Efficiency

​Driver overtime restrictions in April are causing logistics changes, impacting supply chains and potentially pressuring smaller supermarket chains...

Michael Causton

Post-Covid, Aeon Co Ltd has seen significant profit growth but must address profit challenges and overhead costs to rival Seven & I's profit...

Driver overtime restrictions in April are causing logistics changes, impacting supply chains and potentially pressuring smaller supermarket chains...