Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Aeon, Japan’s largest retail group, is accelerating business reforms across supermarkets, drugstores, private brands, apparel, e-commerce, and mall facilities.</li>
<li>It is also investing heavily in customer experience and operational efficiency.</li>
<li>All of which is in contrast to the beleaguered rival, Seven &amp; I, which has fought off a bid but at the expense of significant market share.</li>
</ul>


Aeon, Japan’s largest retail group, is accelerating business reforms across supermarkets, drugstores, private brands, apparel, e-commerce, and mall facilities.
It is also investing heavily in customer experience and operational efficiency.
All of which is in contrast to the beleaguered rival, Seven &amp; I, which has fought off a bid but at the expense of significant market share.


Aeon Restructuring as Seven & I Flounders

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A month ago I wrote <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-activism-m-a-closing-in-on-the-tsuruha-partial-tender-likely-needs-to-be-higher" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:206132" rel="noopener">[Japan Activism/M&amp;A] - Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender - Likely Needs To Be Higher</a>. Now we are &lt;2wks to the deal.  </li>
<li>At the time, I said the Partial Tender Offer Price needed to be higher than the mooted ¥2,280. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> shares are up 10.0% in that month. </li>
<li>The three largest peers are -2.0% on average in that period. The average of 8 peers is +0.5%. I still expect the partial offer price needs to be near ¥3,100</li>
</ul>


A month ago I wrote [Japan Activism/M&amp;A] - Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender - Likely Needs To Be Higher. Now we are &lt;2wks to the deal.  
At the time, I said the Partial Tender Offer Price needed to be higher than the mooted ¥2,280. Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) shares are up 10.0% in that month. 
The three largest peers are -2.0% on average in that period. The average of 8 peers is +0.5%. I still expect the partial offer price needs to be near ¥3,100


[Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25

<ul>
<li>Last year saw the consolidation of several supermarket chains in Shikoku and Chugoku by Aeon, creating Japan’s largest supermarket group. </li>
<li>Now, Aeon has now announced that it will expand its existing stake in Inageya, rolling the company into USMH and creating another, even larger food operation and Japan's biggest yet.</li>
<li>Aeon is looking for dominance in Tokyo and may seek more acquisitions but rivals are unlikely to give it a free hand nor say no to acquisitions of their own.</li>
</ul>


Last year saw the consolidation of several supermarket chains in Shikoku and Chugoku by Aeon, creating Japan’s largest supermarket group. 
Now, Aeon has now announced that it will expand its existing stake in Inageya, rolling the company into USMH and creating another, even larger food operation and Japan's biggest yet.
Aeon is looking for dominance in Tokyo and may seek more acquisitions but rivals are unlikely to give it a free hand nor say no to acquisitions of their own.


Aeon Will Own Japan’s Two Largest Supermarket Groups with Inageya Purchase

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

<ul>
<li>We identified overvalued, over-leveraged, low growth stocks on EPS growth, high PEG, low ROE, high P/BV, high leverage.  Clients opined that EBITDA is more stable earnings parameter for such stocks.</li>
<li>Based on clients’ feedback we now screen the stocks using EBITDA growth as the earnings growth parameter and EV as the corresponding valuation parameter.</li>
<li>Our screen yields 30 stocks - 20 from Japan (largely property/REIT) and 10 from HK/China. 7 stocks are common to the EPS-PE and EBITDA-EV lists - mostly from Japanese property.</li>
</ul>


We identified overvalued, over-leveraged, low growth stocks on EPS growth, high PEG, low ROE, high P/BV, high leverage.  Clients opined that EBITDA is more stable earnings parameter for such stocks.
Based on clients’ feedback we now screen the stocks using EBITDA growth as the earnings growth parameter and EV as the corresponding valuation parameter.
Our screen yields 30 stocks - 20 from Japan (largely property/REIT) and 10 from HK/China. 7 stocks are common to the EPS-PE and EBITDA-EV lists - mostly from Japanese property.


Asian Equities: Overvalued, Over-Leveraged, Low Growth – a Different Look

<ul>
<li>Aeon will turn Aeon Mall and its facilities management business, Aeon Delight, into subsidiaries.</li>
<li>The move is part of plans to rationalise and inject new momentum into its shopping building business, including new types of neighbourhood mall.</li>
<li>It will also use Aeon Mall’s overseas network to scout for promising tenants for its malls and GMS stores.</li>
</ul>


Aeon will turn Aeon Mall and its facilities management business, Aeon Delight, into subsidiaries.
The move is part of plans to rationalise and inject new momentum into its shopping building business, including new types of neighbourhood mall.
It will also use Aeon Mall’s overseas network to scout for promising tenants for its malls and GMS stores.


Aeon's Plans to Absorb Aeon Mall and Aeon Delight Will Help Margin Growth

Japan

AEON CO., LTD. operates general merchandise stores, supermarkets, and convenience stores throughout Japan. The Company is also engaged in women's and casual clothing store business, development business of commercial property, and financing service through the subsidiaries.

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Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)

Aeon Restructuring as Seven & I Flounders

Aeon is revamping its retail operations and focusing on customer experience and efficiency, while rival Seven & I struggles to maintain market...

Michael Causton

[Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25

The EXPECTED Partial Tender Offer for Post-Merger Tsuruha should be announced in early December 2025. I still expect a premium is needed. Continued...

Travis Lundy

Aeon Will Own Japan’s Two Largest Supermarket Groups with Inageya Purchase

Aeon will buy a majority stake in Inageya, consolidating its market share in the Tokyo region just as Seven & I has confirmed a focus on the Tokyo...

Michael Causton

Asian Equities: Overvalued, Over-Leveraged, Low Growth – a Different Look

We modify our "stocks to avoid" list using EBITDA as the earnings parameter & EV as the valuation parameter. We screen 30 stocks, mostly from...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Aeon's Plans to Absorb Aeon Mall and Aeon Delight Will Help Margin Growth

Aeon to transform mall ops by absorbing Aeon Mall and Aeon Delight, aiming to revitalise shopping building business with new concepts and...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Aeon Restructuring as Seven & I Flounders

​Aeon is revamping its retail operations and focusing on customer experience and efficiency, while rival Seven & I struggles to maintain market...

Michael Causton

[Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25

The EXPECTED Partial Tender Offer for Post-Merger Tsuruha should be announced in early December 2025. I still expect a premium is needed. Continued...

Travis Lundy

Aeon Will Own Japan’s Two Largest Supermarket Groups with Inageya Purchase

Aeon will buy a majority stake in Inageya, consolidating its market share in the Tokyo region just as Seven & I has confirmed a focus on the Tokyo...

Michael Causton

Asian Equities: Overvalued, Over-Leveraged, Low Growth – a Different Look

​We modify our "stocks to avoid" list using EBITDA as the earnings parameter & EV as the valuation parameter. We screen 30 stocks, mostly from...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Aeon's Plans to Absorb Aeon Mall and Aeon Delight Will Help Margin Growth

​Aeon to transform mall ops by absorbing Aeon Mall and Aeon Delight, aiming to revitalise shopping building business with new concepts and...

Michael Causton

Aeon is revamping its retail operations and focusing on customer experience and efficiency, while rival Seven & I struggles to maintain market...

We modify our "stocks to avoid" list using EBITDA as the earnings parameter & EV as the valuation parameter. We screen 30 stocks, mostly from...

Aeon to transform mall ops by absorbing Aeon Mall and Aeon Delight, aiming to revitalise shopping building business with new concepts and...