Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

US Banks - CP at +19% YoY, LDR Expansion Accelerates, Weekly Loans +5% YoY

[Japan M&A] Possible Partial TSURUHA (3391 JP) Tender Changes - More Accretion! Smaller Tender?

Tsuruha-Welcia Merger to Form Biggest Drugstore Alliance, +Aeon TOB

[Japan Activism/M&A] - Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender - Likely Needs To Be Higher

[Japan Activism/M&A] - Shareholders Approve Tsuruha/Welcia Merger - Now It's Partial Offer+Synergies

[Japan Activism/M&A] - Thinking About Positioning Around the Tsuruha/Welcia Vote

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A month ago I wrote <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-activism-m-a-closing-in-on-the-tsuruha-partial-tender-likely-needs-to-be-higher" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:206132" rel="noopener">[Japan Activism/M&amp;A] - Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender - Likely Needs To Be Higher</a>. Now we are &lt;2wks to the deal.  </li>
<li>At the time, I said the Partial Tender Offer Price needed to be higher than the mooted ¥2,280. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> shares are up 10.0% in that month. </li>
<li>The three largest peers are -2.0% on average in that period. The average of 8 peers is +0.5%. I still expect the partial offer price needs to be near ¥3,100</li>
</ul>


A month ago I wrote [Japan Activism/M&amp;A] - Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender - Likely Needs To Be Higher. Now we are &lt;2wks to the deal.  
At the time, I said the Partial Tender Offer Price needed to be higher than the mooted ¥2,280. Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) shares are up 10.0% in that month. 
The three largest peers are -2.0% on average in that period. The average of 8 peers is +0.5%. I still expect the partial offer price needs to be near ¥3,100


[Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25