Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Consumer Staples are a good inflation hedge, but only if they can pass on the increase in raw material costs to end consumers. In a scenario of high unemployment and collapsing demand this may not always be possible.</p><p>We have taken a look at the change in short interest on Asian consumer staples names across Hong Kong, Korea, Taiwan and Japan to identify stocks that the market is betting on and against.</p><p>There is a fair bit of variability among the HK and Taiwan stocks, short interest has been broadly lower in Korea and has been plummeting in Japan. Investors can use the data as one of the inputs in identifying stocks that could benefit from an increase in inflation in the near/medium term.</p>

Consumer Staples are a good inflation hedge, but only if they can pass on the increase in raw material costs to end consumers. In a scenario of high unemployment and collapsing demand this may not always be possible.We have taken a look at the change in short interest on Asian consumer staples names across Hong Kong, Korea, Taiwan and Japan to identify stocks that the market is betting on and against.There is a fair bit of variability among the HK and Taiwan stocks, short interest has been broadly lower in Korea and has been plummeting in Japan. Investors can use the data as one of the inputs in identifying stocks that could benefit from an increase in inflation in the near/medium term.

Asian Consumer Staples - Inflation Hedge?

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The short notional in the market for the data released 21 April is US$33.19bn (down by US$351mm excluding FX movements and ETFs) with the largest short positions in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1"></a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1"></a></p></div><div><p>Most shorted stocks as a percentage of free float are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aruhi-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26072:1">Aruhi Corp (7198 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anritsu-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3700:1">Anritsu Corp (6754 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aiming-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27325:1">Aiming Inc (3911 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-yuden-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9924:1">Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitta-gelatin-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1481:1">Nitta Gelatin (4977 JP)</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/leopalace21-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8244:1"></a>while the stocks with the highest days to cover are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitta-gelatin-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1481:1">Nitta Gelatin (4977 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aruhi-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26072:1">Aruhi Corp (7198 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/katakura-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2007:1">Katakura Industries (3001 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vital-ksk-holdings-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7398:1">Vital Ksk Holdings (3151 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a>.</p></div><div><p>The largest increases in short notional over the week were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electron-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:280:1">Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ms-ad-insurance-group-holdin" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:631:1">Ms&amp;Ad Insurance Group Holdin (8725 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzuki-motor-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:732:1">Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1">Advantest Corp (6857 JP)</a> while shorts were covered in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kao-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12933:1">Kao Corp (4452 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1">Shiseido Co Ltd (4911 JP)</a>.</p></div><div><p>Sectorally, short positions increased in Information Technology (US$329m), Financials (US$129m) and Real Estate (US$127m) while shorts decreased in Consumer Staples (US$550m) and Consumer Discretionary (US$367m).</p></div>

The short notional in the market for the data released 21 April is US$33.19bn (down by US$351mm excluding FX movements and ETFs) with the largest short positions in Itochu Corp (8001 JP), Fast Retailing (9983 JP), Toyota Motor (7203 JP), Canon Inc (7751 JP) and KDDI Corp (9433 JP). Most shorted stocks as a percentage of free float are Aruhi Corp (7198 JP), Anritsu Corp (6754 JP), Aiming Inc (3911 JP), Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP) and Nitta Gelatin (4977 JP) while the stocks with the highest days to cover are Nitta Gelatin (4977 JP), Aruhi Corp (7198 JP), Katakura Industries (3001 JP), Vital Ksk Holdings (3151 JP) and Itochu Corp (8001 JP).The largest increases in short notional over the week were Tokyo Electron (8035 JP), Ms&amp;Ad Insurance Group Holdin (8725 JP), Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) and Advantest Corp (6857 JP) while shorts were covered in Fast Retailing (9983 JP), Kao Corp (4452 JP), Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) and Shiseido Co Ltd (4911 JP).Sectorally, short positions increased in Information Technology (US$329m), Financials (US$129m) and Real Estate (US$127m) while shorts decreased in Consumer Staples (US$550m) and Consumer Discretionary (US$367m).

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<div>
<p>Last Week in Event <strong>SPACE</strong> ...</p>
</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>With <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-fung-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6290:1" rel="noopener">Li &amp; Fung Ltd (494 HK)</a></strong> operations appearing more structurally, and permanently, impaired, as opposed to facing short-term challenges, the privatisation Offer is looking more attractive.</li>
<li>The later payment date for <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-high-technologies-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7046:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi High Technologies Co (8036 JP)</a></strong> lowers the IRR of buying shares in near-space quite significantly. It could mean the shares drop further than thought. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allied-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4387:1" rel="noopener"><strong>Allied (373 HK)</strong></a> and 74.99%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allied-properties-hk-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19953:1" rel="noopener"><strong>Allied Properties Hk (56 HK)</strong></a> are both suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code, with APH expected to be privatised. This should not trigger downstream MGOs for its three key listed holdings.</li>
<li>Stay bearish on <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-airlines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:74:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Airlines (SIA SP)</a></strong>. There will be plenty of time to own this stock later. The Rights Entitlements (both to Rights Shares and Rights MCBs), if traded on the exchange as they should be, will initially see short-covering and may trade rich, then they and the shares should trade down. </li>
<li>TOPIX ETF buying by the BOJ should support a Long <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)</a></strong>, Short <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:280:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)</a></strong> trade which looks attractive purely based on the deviation from historical ratios.</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Plus, other events, CCASS movements and Mood Spins.</li>
</ul>
</div>
<p><em>(This insight covers specific insights &amp; comments involving <strong>S</strong>tubs, <strong>P</strong>airs, <strong>A</strong>rbitrage, share <strong>C</strong>lassifications, and <strong>E</strong>vents - or <strong>SPACE</strong> - in the past week)</em></p>


Last Week in Event SPACE ...



With Li &amp; Fung Ltd (494 HK) operations appearing more structurally, and permanently, impaired, as opposed to facing short-term challenges, the privatisation Offer is looking more attractive.
The later payment date for Hitachi High Technologies Co (8036 JP) lowers the IRR of buying shares in near-space quite significantly. It could mean the shares drop further than thought. 

Allied (373 HK) and 74.99%-held Allied Properties Hk (56 HK) are both suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code, with APH expected to be privatised. This should not trigger downstream MGOs for its three key listed holdings.
Stay bearish on Singapore Airlines (SIA SP). There will be plenty of time to own this stock later. The Rights Entitlements (both to Rights Shares and Rights MCBs), if traded on the exchange as they should be, will initially see short-covering and may trade rich, then they and the shares should trade down. 
TOPIX ETF buying by the BOJ should support a Long Renesas Electronics (6723 JP), Short Tokyo Electron (8035 JP) trade which looks attractive purely based on the deviation from historical ratios.




Plus, other events, CCASS movements and Mood Spins.


(This insight covers specific insights &amp; comments involving Stubs, Pairs, Arbitrage, share Classifications, and Events - or SPACE - in the past week)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Li & Fung, Hitachi Hi-Chem, Allied Prop, Sing Air, Renesas/Tokyo Electron

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/127/809/original/2020-04-14_04-54-14.png?1586807683" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="127809"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>A CLEARER VISION</strong> - Softbank last made an earnings forecast in December 2010; however, the startling losses at the Vision Fund have prompted them to be more forthcoming, perhaps not entirely unrelated to their buyback programme.  The revisions amount to a cut of 3% to forecast for annual operating profit and net income for the market overall. We will leave the implications for the NAV discount to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/kirk-boodry" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1920" rel="noopener">Kirk Boodry</a> and others to fill in; however, we would note that the more traditional revised BPS is now 1.26. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/127/781/original/2020-04-13_18-22-38.png?1586769778" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="127781"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • SNA</div><p><strong>HOKKAIDO'S SECOND WAVE</strong> - Hokkaido has just reimposed a prefectural-level emergency having seen its second wave of infections after lifting restrictions on 19th March. Ten prefecture are imposing various degrees of quasi-lockdowns after Ishikawa-ken followed Aichi's example yesterday.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/127/816/original/File%202020-04-14%207%2027%2032.jpeg?1586816887" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="127816"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • TMG <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/127/818/original/IMG_1317.jpg?1586817094" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="127818"></figure>
</div><div class="content-caption">Source • NHK</div><p><strong>MONDAY CASE COUNT</strong> - Tokyo saw just 91 new confirmed cases yesterday; however, Monday's tend to be quieter days due to a lower amount of testing. The rest of the country saw 125 new cases - only three prefectures saw more than ten new cases.</p><p><strong>NOT SO FULL DISCLOSURE</strong> - Japan's FSA is planning to postpone the deadline for submitting yuho annual reports for listed companies closing in March for three months, until the end of September, given the impact of the COVID-19.  The unaudited short-form kessan tanshin statements will continue, however, certain items including data on shareholdings will be delayed. Annual General Meetings for March year-end companies that generally take place in June will also have to be postponed.</p><p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> below, we shall review the large-cap results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made yesterday. The positive/neutral/negative balance for all 63 results was 29:9:25; for the 27 revisions/forecasts, the split was 11:1:15. </p>

Source • Japan AnalyticsA CLEARER VISION - Softbank last made an earnings forecast in December 2010; however, the startling losses at the Vision Fund have prompted them to be more forthcoming, perhaps not entirely unrelated to their buyback programme.  The revisions amount to a cut of 3% to forecast for annual operating profit and net income for the market overall. We will leave the implications for the NAV discount to Kirk Boodry and others to fill in; however, we would note that the more traditional revised BPS is now 1.26. Source • SNAHOKKAIDO'S SECOND WAVE - Hokkaido has just reimposed a prefectural-level emergency having seen its second wave of infections after lifting restrictions on 19th March. Ten prefecture are imposing various degrees of quasi-lockdowns after Ishikawa-ken followed Aichi's example yesterday.Source • TMG 
Source • NHKMONDAY CASE COUNT - Tokyo saw just 91 new confirmed cases yesterday; however, Monday's tend to be quieter days due to a lower amount of testing. The rest of the country saw 125 new cases - only three prefectures saw more than ten new cases.NOT SO FULL DISCLOSURE - Japan's FSA is planning to postpone the deadline for submitting yuho annual reports for listed companies closing in March for three months, until the end of September, given the impact of the COVID-19.  The unaudited short-form kessan tanshin statements will continue, however, certain items including data on shareholdings will be delayed. Annual General Meetings for March year-end companies that generally take place in June will also have to be postponed.In the DETAIL below, we shall review the large-cap results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made yesterday. The positive/neutral/negative balance for all 63 results was 29:9:25; for the 27 revisions/forecasts, the split was 11:1:15. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 13th April - A Clearer Vision

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/127/525/original/File%202020-04-12%203%2030%2058.jpeg?1586636737" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="127525"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/127/559/original/File%202020-04-12%208%2003%2009.jpeg?1586646443" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="127559"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • ourworldindata.org</div><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/127/550/original/File%202020-04-12%207%2012%2036.jpeg?1586643194" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="127550"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/127/551/original/File%202020-04-12%207%2014%2052.jpeg?1586643688" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="127551"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Financial Times</div><p style="text-align: left;"><strong>CONTAINMENT NOT CONTAGION (SO FAR)</strong> - In the last week, the number of daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 has increased from 300-400 to 500-600 of which Tokyo represents about one third. The case count is rising in many hitherto unaffected prefectures, partly as a result of migrations out of the seven prefectures which are under the 'state of emergency' declared on 7th April and also due to the return of asymptomatic Japanese nationals based overseas. The number of active cases (currently 6,279), those in critical care (122) and deaths (114) have yet to peak, although on a per capita basis Japan is in line with its East Asian neighbours. For the Japanese social distancing 'experiment' to be deemed successful, the 7-day rolling peak number of new cases needs to be below 1,000.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/127/573/original/IMG_1249.jpg?1586663212" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="127573"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • NHK</div><p style="text-align: left;"><strong>NO-LOCKDOWN 'LOCKDOWN'</strong> - Japan's evolving compromise between social distancing and preserving the economy has revealed tensions between the central and local governments over the implementation of the powers that the former has ceded to the latter. Governor Koike had pressed for a broader range of business closures but relented over beauty salons and barbershops. DIY stores, convenience stores and restaurants can also remain open provided social distancing measures are implemented. Prefectures that were not included in the initial seven have now proposed measures of their own, including compensation for businesses forced to close which the national government has, so far, ruled out. Although no curfews have been instituted a ban on selling alcohol after seven o'clock is a reasonable 'carrot-like' alternative. From the helicopter that NHK paid to survey the scene, Tokyo was all-but-deserted on Saturday night. On Sunday. The 'recommendation' to refrain from going to bars and nightclubs has been extended to cover the whole of Japan. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/127/575/original/lots-of-hanko.jpg?1586663417" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="127575"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Wikimedia Commons</div><p><strong>WFH</strong> - PM Abe has very forcibly called for companies to institute 'WFH' for up to 70% of clerical staff - a factor which supports our continued bullish view for the <strong>Information Technology</strong> Sector. A Tokyo Chamber Of Commerce survey suggests that less 54% of SMEs do not intend to comply. The problem of the use of personal seals or '<em>hanko</em>' for the certification of documents remains, requiring many employees to trek into the office to affix them. Perhaps this is a business opportunity for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sansan-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28112:1" rel="noopener">Sansan (4443 JP)</a>?</p><p><strong>SIDELINED</strong> - In recent weeks, Japan's COVID-19 policy response has been led more by the Cabinet Office and Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura rather than the Kato-san of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. Kato-san and his bureaucrats have fallen out of favour for their handling of the Diamond Princess, inflexibility over testing and the rules requiring all positive cases to be hospitalised and the approval process of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujifilm-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16353:1" rel="noopener">Fujifilm (4901 JP)</a>'s drug Avigan for use in COVID-19 cases. For better or worse, Japan's response to COVID-19 is being driven by broader considerations than the longevity of its elderly citizens.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/127/571/original/2020-04-12_12-13-13.png?1586661205" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="127571"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/127/572/original/2020-04-12_12-12-59.png?1586661219" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="127572"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • EpiCentro/Istituto Superiore di Sanità </div><p><strong>HARD CHOICES</strong> - It is highly unlikely that Japan's first 'wave' of COVID-19 infections will peak conveniently to coincide with the Golden Week holiday period. However, as is becoming evident in New York City, the impact of 'total lockdowns' has been overestimated relative to social distancing Temporary overflow hospitals are empty, and in some US states have been closed or handed back to the military. <a href="https://www.epicentro.iss.it/en/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_2_april_2020.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Evidence</a> from Italy's EpiCentro/Istituto Superiore di Sanità shows that the vast majority of fatalities are found in those over 60 years of age who have one or more comorbidity. These findings are also valid for Japan and other developed countries. As the economic cost of the moral imperative behind lockdowns becomes clear, the pressure to restart will increase, and the protocols for reaching herd immunity will be debated. The likelihood of second and third 'waves' before the widespread availability of mass-testing or vaccinees may require semi-permanent social-distancing for the most vulnerable and prolonged shutdowns of the crowded, noisy indoor venues that attract the most foolhardy. By anticipating the post-COVID protocols, The approach adopted by Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore and Japan offers a better glide-path to economic recovery. All are, however, dependent on the major Western economies, currently pickled in aspic, finding their exit strategies before summer.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/127/661/original/File%202020-04-13%205%2057%2023.jpeg?1586725178" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="127661"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • gotazual@nyit.edu</div><p><strong>PRO-VAX</strong> - Another factor in Japan's favour is the country's early adoption, in 1947, of a universal childhood BCG vaccination programme. A recent <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.24.20042937v1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">study</a> has found that "<em>countries without universal policies of BCG vaccination (Italy, Netherlands, Belgium United States) have been more severely affected compared to countries with universal and long-standing BCG policies. Countries that have a late start of universal BCG policy (Iran, 1984) had high mortality, consistent with the idea that BCG protects the vaccinated elderly population. We also found that BCG vaccination also reduced the number of reported COVID-19 cases in a country. The combination of reduced morbidity and mortality makes BCG vaccination a potential new tool in the fight against COVID-19.</em>" Ironically for President Bolsonaro, Brazil's programme started in 1920 and currently has an even lower mortality rate than Japan.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/127/583/original/File%202020-04-12%2014%2045%2024.jpeg?1586670339" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="127583"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • oec.world</div><p><strong>CHINA PASSING -</strong> Of longer-term significance, Japan's COVID-19 stimulus package includes U¥220 billion to support Japanese companies moving production facilities out of China. Imports from China have fallen by more than 50% year-on-year and many Japanese manufacturers have been starved of critical components. While high-value-added parts will be shifted home, others could be sourced from SouthEast Asian countries.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/127/586/original/File%202020-04-12%2015%2002%2044.jpeg?1586671392" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="127586"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/127/587/original/File%202020-04-12%2015%2006%2029.jpeg?1586671741" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="127587"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • McKinsey</div><p><strong>FOOD SECURITY</strong> - Meanwhile, several countries, including India, Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Vietnam, and Romania, are restricting exports of foodstuffs. Fortunately for Japan, much of the nations food imports come from the United States, Australia and Canada. Nevertheless, we expect a repeat of the 2008 food price inflation before the summer and suggest 'treading carefully; in the currently buoyant <strong>Food Beverage &amp; Tobacco</strong> Sector.</p><div>
<p><strong>SELECTIVELY BULLISH</strong> - While Japan's globally-orientated companies will struggle with almost no demand from the lockdown economies, specific domestic Sectors and Peer Groups, such as <strong>Information Technology </strong>and<strong> Internet Content &amp; Services</strong> are thriving in the COVID economy. Overall, by resisting a total lockdown, Japan remains relatively well-placed for 'the other side'. </p>
<p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below, we shall provide an update on the market overall, look at Sector and Peer Group performance and review the results and revision announcements made on Friday.</p>
<blockquote><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>It is not given to human beings - happily for them, for otherwise life would be intolerable - to foresee or to predict to any large extent the unfolding course of events." - Winston Churchill</strong></p></blockquote>
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Source • ourworldindata.orgSource • Financial TimesCONTAINMENT NOT CONTAGION (SO FAR) - In the last week, the number of daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 has increased from 300-400 to 500-600 of which Tokyo represents about one third. The case count is rising in many hitherto unaffected prefectures, partly as a result of migrations out of the seven prefectures which are under the 'state of emergency' declared on 7th April and also due to the return of asymptomatic Japanese nationals based overseas. The number of active cases (currently 6,279), those in critical care (122) and deaths (114) have yet to peak, although on a per capita basis Japan is in line with its East Asian neighbours. For the Japanese social distancing 'experiment' to be deemed successful, the 7-day rolling peak number of new cases needs to be below 1,000.Source • NHKNO-LOCKDOWN 'LOCKDOWN' - Japan's evolving compromise between social distancing and preserving the economy has revealed tensions between the central and local governments over the implementation of the powers that the former has ceded to the latter. Governor Koike had pressed for a broader range of business closures but relented over beauty salons and barbershops. DIY stores, convenience stores and restaurants can also remain open provided social distancing measures are implemented. Prefectures that were not included in the initial seven have now proposed measures of their own, including compensation for businesses forced to close which the national government has, so far, ruled out. Although no curfews have been instituted a ban on selling alcohol after seven o'clock is a reasonable 'carrot-like' alternative. From the helicopter that NHK paid to survey the scene, Tokyo was all-but-deserted on Saturday night. On Sunday. The 'recommendation' to refrain from going to bars and nightclubs has been extended to cover the whole of Japan. Source • Wikimedia CommonsWFH - PM Abe has very forcibly called for companies to institute 'WFH' for up to 70% of clerical staff - a factor which supports our continued bullish view for the Information Technology Sector. A Tokyo Chamber Of Commerce survey suggests that less 54% of SMEs do not intend to comply. The problem of the use of personal seals or 'hanko' for the certification of documents remains, requiring many employees to trek into the office to affix them. Perhaps this is a business opportunity for Sansan (4443 JP)?SIDELINED - In recent weeks, Japan's COVID-19 policy response has been led more by the Cabinet Office and Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura rather than the Kato-san of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. Kato-san and his bureaucrats have fallen out of favour for their handling of the Diamond Princess, inflexibility over testing and the rules requiring all positive cases to be hospitalised and the approval process of Fujifilm (4901 JP)'s drug Avigan for use in COVID-19 cases. For better or worse, Japan's response to COVID-19 is being driven by broader considerations than the longevity of its elderly citizens.Source • EpiCentro/Istituto Superiore di Sanità HARD CHOICES - It is highly unlikely that Japan's first 'wave' of COVID-19 infections will peak conveniently to coincide with the Golden Week holiday period. However, as is becoming evident in New York City, the impact of 'total lockdowns' has been overestimated relative to social distancing Temporary overflow hospitals are empty, and in some US states have been closed or handed back to the military. Evidence from Italy's EpiCentro/Istituto Superiore di Sanità shows that the vast majority of fatalities are found in those over 60 years of age who have one or more comorbidity. These findings are also valid for Japan and other developed countries. As the economic cost of the moral imperative behind lockdowns becomes clear, the pressure to restart will increase, and the protocols for reaching herd immunity will be debated. The likelihood of second and third 'waves' before the widespread availability of mass-testing or vaccinees may require semi-permanent social-distancing for the most vulnerable and prolonged shutdowns of the crowded, noisy indoor venues that attract the most foolhardy. By anticipating the post-COVID protocols, The approach adopted by Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore and Japan offers a better glide-path to economic recovery. All are, however, dependent on the major Western economies, currently pickled in aspic, finding their exit strategies before summer.Source • gotazual@nyit.eduPRO-VAX - Another factor in Japan's favour is the country's early adoption, in 1947, of a universal childhood BCG vaccination programme. A recent study has found that "countries without universal policies of BCG vaccination (Italy, Netherlands, Belgium United States) have been more severely affected compared to countries with universal and long-standing BCG policies. Countries that have a late start of universal BCG policy (Iran, 1984) had high mortality, consistent with the idea that BCG protects the vaccinated elderly population. We also found that BCG vaccination also reduced the number of reported COVID-19 cases in a country. The combination of reduced morbidity and mortality makes BCG vaccination a potential new tool in the fight against COVID-19." Ironically for President Bolsonaro, Brazil's programme started in 1920 and currently has an even lower mortality rate than Japan.Source • oec.worldCHINA PASSING - Of longer-term significance, Japan's COVID-19 stimulus package includes U¥220 billion to support Japanese companies moving production facilities out of China. Imports from China have fallen by more than 50% year-on-year and many Japanese manufacturers have been starved of critical components. While high-value-added parts will be shifted home, others could be sourced from SouthEast Asian countries.Source • McKinseyFOOD SECURITY - Meanwhile, several countries, including India, Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Vietnam, and Romania, are restricting exports of foodstuffs. Fortunately for Japan, much of the nations food imports come from the United States, Australia and Canada. Nevertheless, we expect a repeat of the 2008 food price inflation before the summer and suggest 'treading carefully; in the currently buoyant Food Beverage &amp; Tobacco Sector.
SELECTIVELY BULLISH - While Japan's globally-orientated companies will struggle with almost no demand from the lockdown economies, specific domestic Sectors and Peer Groups, such as Information Technology and Internet Content &amp; Services are thriving in the COVID economy. Overall, by resisting a total lockdown, Japan remains relatively well-placed for 'the other side'. 
In the DETAIL section below, we shall provide an update on the market overall, look at Sector and Peer Group performance and review the results and revision announcements made on Friday.
It is not given to human beings - happily for them, for otherwise life would be intolerable - to foresee or to predict to any large extent the unfolding course of events." - Winston Churchill


🇯🇵 JAPAN MARKET (& COVID-19) UPDATE - 12th April • To Each Their Own

Japan

AEON CO., LTD. operates general merchandise stores, supermarkets, and convenience stores throughout Japan. The Company is also engaged in women's and casual clothing store business, development business of commercial property, and financing service through the subsidiaries.

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Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)

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