Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There is more optimism about headline inflation but for the average Japanese consumer, there are major concerns given the 9% spike in food inflation.</li>
<li>Surveys suggest that households reduced shopping frequency for daily needs consumer goods by about 10% in the first nine months of 2023 alone.</li>
<li>Retailers, meanwhile, are taking steps to reduce prices where they can, creating a widening gap between retailers with the capacity to lower prices and those that can't.</li>
</ul>


There is more optimism about headline inflation but for the average Japanese consumer, there are major concerns given the 9% spike in food inflation.
Surveys suggest that households reduced shopping frequency for daily needs consumer goods by about 10% in the first nine months of 2023 alone.
Retailers, meanwhile, are taking steps to reduce prices where they can, creating a widening gap between retailers with the capacity to lower prices and those that can't.


Inflation Still a Drag on Japanese Consumer Confidence

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).</li>
<li>On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.</li>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).
On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.
MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.


Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

<ul>
<li>Results for FY2022-23 provide a snapshot of winners and losers in Japan's retail sector.</li>
<li>The data shows a big improvement in performance for retailers with sales of ¥250 billion or more and the outlook is positive for most, particularly for profits.</li>
<li>This also means that market concentration is intensifying, particularly in sectors like drugstores but also now in supermarkets. We highlight the winners in each sector.</li>
</ul>


Results for FY2022-23 provide a snapshot of winners and losers in Japan's retail sector.
The data shows a big improvement in performance for retailers with sales of ¥250 billion or more and the outlook is positive for most, particularly for profits.
This also means that market concentration is intensifying, particularly in sectors like drugstores but also now in supermarkets. We highlight the winners in each sector.


<ul>
<li>Retail results for FY2022-23 are now in and a summary analysis of all major retail sectors and retailers is available below. </li>
<li>The data shows a big improvement in performance for retailing overall, with the highest growth rates since 1990, even if some of this growth was thanks to higher prices.</li>
<li>2023 already looks like being another strong year across both consumer discretionary and staples.</li>
</ul>


Retail results for FY2022-23 are now in and a summary analysis of all major retail sectors and retailers is available below. 
The data shows a big improvement in performance for retailing overall, with the highest growth rates since 1990, even if some of this growth was thanks to higher prices.
2023 already looks like being another strong year across both consumer discretionary and staples.


<ul>
<li>With food inflation exceeding 8% in December, prices have become the focus for all supermarket retailing. </li>
<li>This is good news for those that are set up for price competition but it presents a serious challenge to the majority of chains.</li>
<li>The net result will be a widening gap in performance between the best and rest, with the former delivering both top line growth and rising margins.</li>
</ul>


With food inflation exceeding 8% in December, prices have become the focus for all supermarket retailing. 
This is good news for those that are set up for price competition but it presents a serious challenge to the majority of chains.
The net result will be a widening gap in performance between the best and rest, with the former delivering both top line growth and rising margins.


Japan's Supermarkets: The Coming Disruption

Japan

AEON CO., LTD. operates general merchandise stores, supermarkets, and convenience stores throughout Japan. The Company is also engaged in women's and casual clothing store business, development business of commercial property, and financing service through the subsidiaries.

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Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)

Inflation Still a Drag on Japanese Consumer Confidence

A 9% increase in food inflation has Japanese consumers worried, leading to reduced shopping frequency. Retailers are trying to lower prices,...

Michael Causton

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

Japan's Best Performing Retailers

There were strong improvements in both sales and profits for leading retailers last year and the following insight looks at the main winners and...

Michael Causton

Big Gains for Big Retail in Japan

This insight provides snapshot reviews of performance in all Japanese retail sectors and formats, outlining winners and losers as Japan shrugs off...

Michael Causton

Japan's Supermarkets: The Coming Disruption

With Trial's IPO looming and inflation at record highs, Japan's supermarket sector is a sector ripe for disruption as pricing pressures widen the...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Inflation Still a Drag on Japanese Consumer Confidence

A 9% increase in food inflation has Japanese consumers worried, leading to reduced shopping frequency. Retailers are trying to lower prices,...

Michael Causton

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

​The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

Japan's Best Performing Retailers

There were strong improvements in both sales and profits for leading retailers last year and the following insight looks at the main winners and...

Michael Causton

Big Gains for Big Retail in Japan

This insight provides snapshot reviews of performance in all Japanese retail sectors and formats, outlining winners and losers as Japan shrugs off...

Michael Causton

Japan's Supermarkets: The Coming Disruption

With Trial's IPO looming and inflation at record highs, Japan's supermarket sector is a sector ripe for disruption as pricing pressures widen the...

Michael Causton

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...