IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-mall-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5262:1" rel="noopener">AEON Mall (8905 JP)</a> announced a share exchange offer by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a> at 0.65 Aeon shares per Aeon Mall share, a 30.9% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The share exchange ratio is reasonable compared to historical price ratios and IFA valuation ranges. The implied offer multiple is attractive compared to peer multiples.</li>
<li>Aeon’s 58.16% shareholding ensures that Aeon Mall's vote on 22 May is low-risk. The share exchange's effective date is 1 July.</li>
</ul>



AEON Mall (8905 JP) announced a share exchange offer by Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) at 0.65 Aeon shares per Aeon Mall share, a 30.9% premium to the undisturbed price.
The share exchange ratio is reasonable compared to historical price ratios and IFA valuation ranges. The implied offer multiple is attractive compared to peer multiples.
Aeon’s 58.16% shareholding ensures that Aeon Mall's vote on 22 May is low-risk. The share exchange's effective date is 1 July.


Aeon Mall (8905 JP): Aeon (8267 JP)’s Share Exchange Ratio Is Set

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>In an announcement after the close Friday 11 April, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-mall-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5262:1" rel="noopener">AEON Mall (8905 JP)</a> announced their merger ratio, and timing. </li>
<li>The ratio is 0.65 to 1.0, meaning Aeon Mall shareholders don't get a lot of credit for their real estate. The timing is short-dated. The AGM is end-May. Merger July1. </li>
<li>This may be a tad light, but it is a done deal. Active shareholder base is almost all retail and crossholders+dom passive gets Aeon to 70%. </li>
</ul>


In an announcement after the close Friday 11 April, Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) and AEON Mall (8905 JP) announced their merger ratio, and timing. 
The ratio is 0.65 to 1.0, meaning Aeon Mall shareholders don't get a lot of credit for their real estate. The timing is short-dated. The AGM is end-May. Merger July1. 
This may be a tad light, but it is a done deal. Active shareholder base is almost all retail and crossholders+dom passive gets Aeon to 70%. 


"Tiny Win for Guess The Ratio" Aeon (8267) Pays a SMALL Premium for Aeon Mall (8905)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-mall-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5262:1" rel="noopener">AEON Mall (8905 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a> announced a MoU for the potential privatisation of Aeon Mall through a share exchange offer.</li>
<li>The terms of the share exchange are expected to be announced in early April and be implemented in July. </li>
<li>Aeon’s 58.16% shareholding facilitates passing the Aeon Mall shareholder vote. My analysis suggests a potential share exchange (Aeon Mall/Aeon) ratio range of 0.60x-0.69x.</li>
</ul>



AEON Mall (8905 JP) and Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) announced a MoU for the potential privatisation of Aeon Mall through a share exchange offer.
The terms of the share exchange are expected to be announced in early April and be implemented in July. 
Aeon’s 58.16% shareholding facilitates passing the Aeon Mall shareholder vote. My analysis suggests a potential share exchange (Aeon Mall/Aeon) ratio range of 0.60x-0.69x.


Aeon Mall (8905 JP): Aeon (8267 JP)’s Potential Share Exchange Offer

<ul>
<li>On 28-Feb-25, the last day of their fiscal year, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a> signed a deal to acquire Aeon Delight via Tender Offer and Aeon Mall via scrip exchange.</li>
<li>For Aeon Mall, that means negotiation on the share exchange ratio over the next 5-6 weeks. </li>
<li>While I have an opinion on the fair ratio (explained below), I find "Guess The Ratio" trades fraught with bad governance outcomes. The 3-month average is often used.</li>
</ul>


On 28-Feb-25, the last day of their fiscal year, Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) signed a deal to acquire Aeon Delight via Tender Offer and Aeon Mall via scrip exchange.
For Aeon Mall, that means negotiation on the share exchange ratio over the next 5-6 weeks. 
While I have an opinion on the fair ratio (explained below), I find "Guess The Ratio" trades fraught with bad governance outcomes. The 3-month average is often used.


Aeon (8267) And Aeon Mall (8905) To Be a Guess The Ratio Trade

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Consumer distribution has been transformed since 2020 through accelerated concentration of market share. While some has come about through organic growth, the real drivers have been M&amp;A and MBOs. </li>
<li>The result is a realignment of the retail leader board as companies like PPI, Welcia and Trial buy their way to the top, while others, notably Seven &amp; I, shrink.</li>
<li>Here we identify the retail leaders in driving consolidation going forward, and the intensifying pressure on both smaller retailers and the wholesalers that supply them.</li>
</ul>


Consumer distribution has been transformed since 2020 through accelerated concentration of market share. While some has come about through organic growth, the real drivers have been M&amp;A and MBOs. 
The result is a realignment of the retail leader board as companies like PPI, Welcia and Trial buy their way to the top, while others, notably Seven &amp; I, shrink.
Here we identify the retail leaders in driving consolidation going forward, and the intensifying pressure on both smaller retailers and the wholesalers that supply them.


[Japan M&A] Who Owns Who: The Growing Concentration of Power in Japanese Consumer Markets

Japan

AEON Mall Co., Ltd. develops, manages, and maintains large-scale shopping malls throughout Japan. The Company develops shopping malls, rent the space, manages and maintains the shopping malls.

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AEON Mall (8905 JP)

"Tiny Win for Guess The Ratio" Aeon (8267) Pays a SMALL Premium for Aeon Mall (8905)

The Aeon deal for Aeon Mall has been announced. Small premium vs last. Very short-term deal as merger effective July 1. Done deal. unfortunately,...

Travis Lundy

Aeon (8267) And Aeon Mall (8905) To Be a Guess The Ratio Trade

Aeon announced two takeovers Friday. One is a scrip merger which means we get a 5-6 week "Guess The Ratio" trade. They have a bad history. Previous...

Travis Lundy

[Japan M&A] Who Owns Who: The Growing Concentration of Power in Japanese Consumer Markets

Consumer distribution has shifted post-2020, with market concentration driven by M&A and MBOs. We identify the leaders of this consolidation,...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Aeon Mall (8905 JP): Aeon (8267 JP)’s Share Exchange Ratio Is Set

The share exchange ratio is reasonable compared to historical price ratios and IFA valuation ranges. Aeon’s 58.16% shareholding ensures that Aeon...

Arun George

"Tiny Win for Guess The Ratio" Aeon (8267) Pays a SMALL Premium for Aeon Mall (8905)

The Aeon deal for Aeon Mall has been announced. Small premium vs last. Very short-term deal as merger effective July 1. Done deal. unfortunately,...

Travis Lundy

Aeon Mall (8905 JP): Aeon (8267 JP)’s Potential Share Exchange Offer

The terms of the share exchange are expected to be announced in early April and be implemented in July. My analysis suggests a potential share...

Arun George

Aeon (8267) And Aeon Mall (8905) To Be a Guess The Ratio Trade

Aeon announced two takeovers Friday. One is a scrip merger which means we get a 5-6 week "Guess The Ratio" trade. They have a bad history. Previous...

Travis Lundy

[Japan M&A] Who Owns Who: The Growing Concentration of Power in Japanese Consumer Markets

​Consumer distribution has shifted post-2020, with market concentration driven by M&A and MBOs. We identify the leaders of this consolidation,...

Michael Causton

Consumer distribution has shifted post-2020, with market concentration driven by M&A and MBOs. We identify the leaders of this consolidation,...