Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>The S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 are all holding above their respective short-term support levels and market dynamics remain positive. As a result, our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe a “buy the dip” mentality is warranted. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Services, Transportation, &amp; Utilities: Construction &amp; Engineering, Large-Cap, Auctions, Vehicle Rentals/Leasing, Electric, Southwest</p>

The S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 are all holding above their respective short-term support levels and market dynamics remain positive. As a result, our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe a “buy the dip” mentality is warranted. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Services, Transportation, &amp; Utilities: Construction &amp; Engineering, Large-Cap, Auctions, Vehicle Rentals/Leasing, Electric, Southwest

U. S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Utilities; Downgrading Communications

Focused on the Climate–Nature Nexus., Carbon Tracker Initiative

Carbon Tracker Initiative

Focused on the Climate–Nature Nexus.

Carbon Tracker and Planet Tracker - part of the Tracker Group - are award-winning, non-profit financial think tanks focused on the climate–nature nexus.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Alternative jet fuels (AJF), often referred to as sustainable aviation fuels or SAF, are unlikely to deliver material emissions cuts this decade.</li><li>Even if all existing, under-development and announced projects ran at full capacity, AJF would account for only about 5% of global jet fuel and meet less than half of projected demand growth by 2030.</li><li>Longer-term, hurdles like high costs, scarce sustainable feedstocks and weak bankability may keep further scaling constrained.</li></ul>

Alternative jet fuels (AJF), often referred to as sustainable aviation fuels or SAF, are unlikely to deliver material emissions cuts this decade.Even if all existing, under-development and announced projects ran at full capacity, AJF would account for only about 5% of global jet fuel and meet less than half of projected demand growth by 2030.Longer-term, hurdles like high costs, scarce sustainable feedstocks and weak bankability may keep further scaling constrained.

Safran SA - Sustainable Aviation - Fuel Disclosure

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

<ul>
<li>IBA (leading airline intelligence and appraisers) analysis suggests aircraft shortage will persist over the mid-term, pushing rates for newbuilds and especially mid-life assets much higher</li>
<li>Our TP of US$81.45 is premised on 0.94x 2024 P/BV, but it is evident that accounting book value is significantly below current market values, implying a higher fair value </li>
<li>Stay invested, the upcoming 4Q23 results will uncover earnings boost from off-hire aircraft extension at premium rates, elevating Aercap's attractiveness </li>
</ul>


IBA (leading airline intelligence and appraisers) analysis suggests aircraft shortage will persist over the mid-term, pushing rates for newbuilds and especially mid-life assets much higher
Our TP of US$81.45 is premised on 0.94x 2024 P/BV, but it is evident that accounting book value is significantly below current market values, implying a higher fair value 
Stay invested, the upcoming 4Q23 results will uncover earnings boost from off-hire aircraft extension at premium rates, elevating Aercap's attractiveness 


Aercap (AER US, BUY, TP:US$81.45): Current Market Value Exceeds Book Value

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boc-aviation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22689:1" rel="noopener">BOC Aviation (2588 HK)</a> (BOCA) is the highest-quality aircraft leasing company, with a young asset portfolio, quality clientele, cheapest credit facility, and superb risk management.      </li>
<li>Outlook is attractive, strong demand and scarce supply ensures high lease rates and profits. Asset disposals have all recorded a healthy surplus, a potential earnings surprise. </li>
<li>Our TP of HKD70/share implies 0.94x FY24 (22% UPSIDE) potential </li>
</ul>



BOC Aviation (2588 HK) (BOCA) is the highest-quality aircraft leasing company, with a young asset portfolio, quality clientele, cheapest credit facility, and superb risk management.      
Outlook is attractive, strong demand and scarce supply ensures high lease rates and profits. Asset disposals have all recorded a healthy surplus, a potential earnings surprise. 
Our TP of HKD70/share implies 0.94x FY24 (22% UPSIDE) potential 


BOC Aviation (2588 HK, BUY, TP:HKD70): High Quality Safe Bet

AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research, AlphaSituations

Robert Sassoon

AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research

AlphaSituations

Since its establishment, AlphaSituations has delivered a track record of outperformance with a hit rate of winners of more than 70% of its portfolio of ideas generating annualized average returns of 20%. In January 2022, AlphaSituations was contracted by Water Tower Research, an investor engagement and stakeholder communication platform to provide coverage of Special Situations

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Splitting GE into 3 independent, unconnected companies makes strategic sense, and barring unforeseen exogenous factors, should unlock meaningful value for its shareholders  </li>
<li>Based on 2023 estimates, our valuation analysis indicates a SOTP value for GE of  $139-$152 for an up to ~50% upside </li>
<li>Despite the extended break-up execution timeline, there is a case to be made for investors to use the current share price lull to jump in and enjoy the catalyst-driven ride.</li>
</ul>


Splitting GE into 3 independent, unconnected companies makes strategic sense, and barring unforeseen exogenous factors, should unlock meaningful value for its shareholders  
Based on 2023 estimates, our valuation analysis indicates a SOTP value for GE of  $139-$152 for an up to ~50% upside 
Despite the extended break-up execution timeline, there is a case to be made for investors to use the current share price lull to jump in and enjoy the catalyst-driven ride.


SpinTalk: Thoughts On GE's Break-Up Strategy And Why We Think The Stock Is Ready To Fly Again

Ireland

AerCap Holdings NV is the world's largest aircraft leasing firm by fleet value, and is listed on the New York Stock Exchange (AER). It has its headquarters in Dublin with offices in Amsterdam, Los Angeles, Shannon, Fort Lauderdale, Singapore, Shanghai, Abu Dhabi, Seattle and Toulouse.

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AerCap Holdings NV (AER US)

U. S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Utilities; Downgrading Communications

We are upgrading Utilities and downgrading Communications. We recap important technical levels across major indexes and share actionable ideas...

Vermilion Research

Safran SA - Sustainable Aviation - Fuel Disclosure

Alternative jet fuels (AJF), often referred to as sustainable aviation fuels or SAF, are unlikely to deliver material emissions cuts this...

Carbon Tracker Initiative

Aercap (AER US, BUY, TP:US$81.45): Current Market Value Exceeds Book Value

Aircraft shortage & engine issues boost mid-life asset rates. 31% of Aercap's fleet are mid-life assets with renewals within the next 5 years, will...

Mo Aziz

BOC Aviation (2588 HK, BUY, TP:HKD70): High Quality Safe Bet

BOC Aviation is a top aircraft leasing company with a young asset portfolio, quality clients, and strong risk management. We think it is a low...

Mo Aziz

SpinTalk: Thoughts On GE's Break-Up Strategy And Why We Think The Stock Is Ready To Fly Again

Despite the long timeline restructuring play, there is a good case to be made for investors to use the lull in the share price to jump onto the GE...

Robert Sassoon

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

U. S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Utilities; Downgrading Communications

We are upgrading Utilities and downgrading Communications. We recap important technical levels across major indexes and share actionable ideas...

Vermilion Research

Safran SA - Sustainable Aviation - Fuel Disclosure

Alternative jet fuels (AJF), often referred to as sustainable aviation fuels or SAF, are unlikely to deliver material emissions cuts this...

Carbon Tracker Initiative

Aercap (AER US, BUY, TP:US$81.45): Current Market Value Exceeds Book Value

Aircraft shortage & engine issues boost mid-life asset rates. 31% of Aercap's fleet are mid-life assets with renewals within the next 5 years, will...

Mo Aziz

BOC Aviation (2588 HK, BUY, TP:HKD70): High Quality Safe Bet

​BOC Aviation is a top aircraft leasing company with a young asset portfolio, quality clients, and strong risk management. We think it is a low...

Mo Aziz

SpinTalk: Thoughts On GE's Break-Up Strategy And Why We Think The Stock Is Ready To Fly Again

Despite the long timeline restructuring play, there is a good case to be made for investors to use the lull in the share price to jump onto the GE...

Robert Sassoon

BOC Aviation is a top aircraft leasing company with a young asset portfolio, quality clients, and strong risk management. We think it is a low...