Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Affirm Holdings, Inc had a strong performance in its second quarter of fiscal 2024.</li><li>A sense of optimism pervaded the call, as the company's Founder and CEO, Max Levchin, and CFO, Michael Linford, highlighted the impressive run of results, attributing it to the strength of business across their merchant base and favorable economic conditions.</li><li>Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.</li></ul>

Affirm Holdings, Inc had a strong performance in its second quarter of fiscal 2024.A sense of optimism pervaded the call, as the company's Founder and CEO, Max Levchin, and CFO, Michael Linford, highlighted the impressive run of results, attributing it to the strength of business across their merchant base and favorable economic conditions.Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Affirm Holdings: Initiation Of Coverage - Will Its Strength in Unit Economics and Operating Efficiency Last? - Major Drivers

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

On 23 July, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/jason-yap-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:24996" rel="noopener">Jason Yap</a> publised an excellent Insight titled <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bnpl-industry-through-an-esg-lens" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:54887" rel="noopener">BNPL Industry Through an ESG Lens</a>. His knowledge of the "Buy Now, Pay Later" (BNPL) industry per se is well beyond mine, so I defer to his report for fundamentals on the industry and its companies.I do, however, have a few thoughts to add regarding ESG. Whilst Jason is spot-on for ESG issues he covered, I want to: 1) point out a potential ESG positive related to inclusive finance and sustainable development, and 2) expand on a major ESG negative associated with advertising and marketing.This is a deep dive into a few specific ESG issues, and hopefully complementary to Jason's work.

On 23 July, Jason Yap publised an excellent Insight titled BNPL Industry Through an ESG Lens. His knowledge of the "Buy Now, Pay Later" (BNPL) industry per se is well beyond mine, so I defer to his report for fundamentals on the industry and its companies.I do, however, have a few thoughts to add regarding ESG. Whilst Jason is spot-on for ESG issues he covered, I want to: 1) point out a potential ESG positive related to inclusive finance and sustainable development, and 2) expand on a major ESG negative associated with advertising and marketing.This is a deep dive into a few specific ESG issues, and hopefully complementary to Jason's work.

ESG and BNPL: Whether It's "Buy Now, Pay Later" Or "Buy, Not Pay Later" Makes All the Difference

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Last week Square acquired Afterpay for $29B in an all stock deal. Square said the deal would be accretive to gross profit growth in year one after closing, with just a “modest decrease” to adjusted EBITDA in year one. Its shares subsequently added ~$14B market cap…not too shabby.  <div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  </div>

Last week Square acquired Afterpay for $29B in an all stock deal. Square said the deal would be accretive to gross profit growth in year one after closing, with just a “modest decrease” to adjusted EBITDA in year one. Its shares subsequently added ~$14B market cap…not too shabby.  Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  

Square: Afterpay Acquisition a Master Class in Platform Synergies

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We explore Klarna’s and Stripe’s IPO prospects and valuations based on recent share transactions; Nuvei and Cielo are close to being taken private, with Worldpay now controlled by private equity</li>
<li>Nuvei and Worldpay both grew by acquisition but failed to deliver on the market’s expected returns, in our view, ending up under PE ownership; is Nexi a potential PE target?</li>
<li>We retain Visa as a core holding and also keep PagSeguro and PayPal as buys, replacing Cielo with new peer group addition Shift4; we keep our sell rating on Affirm</li>
</ul>


We explore Klarna’s and Stripe’s IPO prospects and valuations based on recent share transactions; Nuvei and Cielo are close to being taken private, with Worldpay now controlled by private equity
Nuvei and Worldpay both grew by acquisition but failed to deliver on the market’s expected returns, in our view, ending up under PE ownership; is Nexi a potential PE target?
We retain Visa as a core holding and also keep PagSeguro and PayPal as buys, replacing Cielo with new peer group addition Shift4; we keep our sell rating on Affirm


Payment Companies – Potential IPOs, Select Companies Being Taken Private and Sector Overview

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since early November 2023 we have laid out our bullish expectations for a year-end rally that we anticipated would continue into the early part of 2024. </li>
<li>Here we are in the early part of 2024, and we see every reason to continue riding this bull market higher. We see small- and mid-caps resuming uptrends $IWM $VXF</li>
<li>Downgrading Staples (XLP) to underweight after brief stint at market weight. Highlighting several buys within Financials: Property &amp; Casualty Insurance BRK.B, PGR, CB, TRV, ALL, CINF, ERIE, and more</li>
</ul>


Since early November 2023 we have laid out our bullish expectations for a year-end rally that we anticipated would continue into the early part of 2024. 
Here we are in the early part of 2024, and we see every reason to continue riding this bull market higher. We see small- and mid-caps resuming uptrends $IWM $VXF
Downgrading Staples (XLP) to underweight after brief stint at market weight. Highlighting several buys within Financials: Property &amp; Casualty Insurance BRK.B, PGR, CB, TRV, ALL, CINF, ERIE, and more


Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- And Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends; Downgrading Staples

United States

Affirm Holdings, Inc. is a financial technology company. The Company builds platform for digital and mobile-first commerce. Affirm Holdings offers financial services tool that allows consumers to purchase goods and services. Affirm Holdings serves customers worldwide.

Affirm Holdings (AFRM US)

Affirm Holdings: Initiation Of Coverage - Will Its Strength in Unit Economics and Operating Efficiency Last? - Major Drivers

Affirm Holdings, Inc had a strong performance in its second quarter of fiscal 2024. A sense of optimism pervaded the call, as the company's...

Baptista Research

ESG and BNPL: Whether It's "Buy Now, Pay Later" Or "Buy, Not Pay Later" Makes All the Difference

This delves into a few specific ESG issues highly material to BNPL companies. It is intended as a complement to Jason Yaps excellent comprehensive...

Kyle Rudden

Square: Afterpay Acquisition a Master Class in Platform Synergies

Last week Square acquired Afterpay for $29B in an all stock deal. Its shares subsequently added ~$14B market cap…not too shabby.

Aaron Gabin

Payment Companies – Potential IPOs, Select Companies Being Taken Private and Sector Overview

In payments, PagSeguro, Visa, PayPal and Shift4 are buys while Affirm remains a sell. Klarna and Stripe prep for their IPOs, Nuvei and Cielo are...

Victor Galliano

Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- And Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends; Downgrading Staples

Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- and Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends $IWM $RTY $VXF; Downgrading Consumer Staples $XLP to Underweight...

Vermilion Research