Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We update Klarna’s and Stripe’s IPO valuations based on recent share transactions; Indian payments company Pine Labs is also reported to be looking to IPO</li>
<li>Our 2Q24 recommended shares performance was very mixed, with it being a mainly challenging quarter for long investors in payment companies</li>
<li>We retain Visa as a core holding and also keep PagSeguro and Shift4 as buys, replacing PayPal with European value play Nexi; we keep our sell rating on Affirm</li>
</ul>


We update Klarna’s and Stripe’s IPO valuations based on recent share transactions; Indian payments company Pine Labs is also reported to be looking to IPO
Our 2Q24 recommended shares performance was very mixed, with it being a mainly challenging quarter for long investors in payment companies
We retain Visa as a core holding and also keep PagSeguro and Shift4 as buys, replacing PayPal with European value play Nexi; we keep our sell rating on Affirm


Payment Companies – Updated Sector Overview and Potential IPOs

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Credit costs, net charge-offs, are rising rapidly for US credit card companies and also for many banks</li>
<li>The 'buy now, pay later' industry is fairly new, Apple's new announcement to exit this business suddenly, may be testimony to stresses</li>
<li>The proportion of US credit card delinquencies/total US delinquencies is now higher than past credit cycles </li>
</ul>


Credit costs, net charge-offs, are rising rapidly for US credit card companies and also for many banks
The 'buy now, pay later' industry is fairly new, Apple's new announcement to exit this business suddenly, may be testimony to stresses
The proportion of US credit card delinquencies/total US delinquencies is now higher than past credit cycles 


Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We explore Klarna’s and Stripe’s IPO prospects and valuations based on recent share transactions; Nuvei and Cielo are close to being taken private, with Worldpay now controlled by private equity</li>
<li>Nuvei and Worldpay both grew by acquisition but failed to deliver on the market’s expected returns, in our view, ending up under PE ownership; is Nexi a potential PE target?</li>
<li>We retain Visa as a core holding and also keep PagSeguro and PayPal as buys, replacing Cielo with new peer group addition Shift4; we keep our sell rating on Affirm</li>
</ul>


We explore Klarna’s and Stripe’s IPO prospects and valuations based on recent share transactions; Nuvei and Cielo are close to being taken private, with Worldpay now controlled by private equity
Nuvei and Worldpay both grew by acquisition but failed to deliver on the market’s expected returns, in our view, ending up under PE ownership; is Nexi a potential PE target?
We retain Visa as a core holding and also keep PagSeguro and PayPal as buys, replacing Cielo with new peer group addition Shift4; we keep our sell rating on Affirm


Payment Companies – Potential IPOs, Select Companies Being Taken Private and Sector Overview

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Affirm Holdings, Inc had a strong performance in its second quarter of fiscal 2024.</li><li>A sense of optimism pervaded the call, as the company's Founder and CEO, Max Levchin, and CFO, Michael Linford, highlighted the impressive run of results, attributing it to the strength of business across their merchant base and favorable economic conditions.</li><li>Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.</li></ul>

Affirm Holdings, Inc had a strong performance in its second quarter of fiscal 2024.A sense of optimism pervaded the call, as the company's Founder and CEO, Max Levchin, and CFO, Michael Linford, highlighted the impressive run of results, attributing it to the strength of business across their merchant base and favorable economic conditions.Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Affirm Holdings: Initiation Of Coverage - Will Its Strength in Unit Economics and Operating Efficiency Last? - Major Drivers

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since early November 2023 we have laid out our bullish expectations for a year-end rally that we anticipated would continue into the early part of 2024. </li>
<li>Here we are in the early part of 2024, and we see every reason to continue riding this bull market higher. We see small- and mid-caps resuming uptrends $IWM $VXF</li>
<li>Downgrading Staples (XLP) to underweight after brief stint at market weight. Highlighting several buys within Financials: Property &amp; Casualty Insurance BRK.B, PGR, CB, TRV, ALL, CINF, ERIE, and more</li>
</ul>


Since early November 2023 we have laid out our bullish expectations for a year-end rally that we anticipated would continue into the early part of 2024. 
Here we are in the early part of 2024, and we see every reason to continue riding this bull market higher. We see small- and mid-caps resuming uptrends $IWM $VXF
Downgrading Staples (XLP) to underweight after brief stint at market weight. Highlighting several buys within Financials: Property &amp; Casualty Insurance BRK.B, PGR, CB, TRV, ALL, CINF, ERIE, and more


Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- And Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends; Downgrading Staples

United States

Affirm Holdings, Inc. is a financial technology company. The Company builds platform for digital and mobile-first commerce. Affirm Holdings offers financial services tool that allows consumers to purchase goods and services. Affirm Holdings serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Affirm Holdings (AFRM US)

Payment Companies – Updated Sector Overview and Potential IPOs

Mixed 2Q24 shares performance, challenging for long investors in payment companies. Visa retained as core holding, with buys PagSeguro and Shift4;...

Victor Galliano

US Banks - Buy Now, Default Later?

Credit card defaults can be major risk for US card companies and banks. Credit cards and net charge-offs are surging. Macro data on credit card...

Daniel Tabbush

Payment Companies – Potential IPOs, Select Companies Being Taken Private and Sector Overview

In payments, PagSeguro, Visa, PayPal and Shift4 are buys while Affirm remains a sell. Klarna and Stripe prep for their IPOs, Nuvei and Cielo are...

Victor Galliano

Affirm Holdings: Initiation Of Coverage - Will Its Strength in Unit Economics and Operating Efficiency Last? - Major Drivers

Affirm Holdings, Inc had a strong performance in its second quarter of fiscal 2024. A sense of optimism pervaded the call, as the company's...

Baptista Research

Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- And Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends; Downgrading Staples

Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- and Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends $IWM $RTY $VXF; Downgrading Consumer Staples $XLP to Underweight...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)