Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Affirm Holdings reported its strongest quarterly profitability to date in its fiscal fourth quarter of 2026, with the company demonstrating solid performance across its core business segments.</li><li>Leadership changes were announced, including promotions aimed at enhancing execution and innovation, signaling a continued focus on strategic growth and product development.</li><li>Affirm continues to expand its footprint in the e-commerce space, currently integrated with 80 of the top 250 e-commerce sites, representing about 10% of e-commerce merchants.</li></ul>

Affirm Holdings reported its strongest quarterly profitability to date in its fiscal fourth quarter of 2026, with the company demonstrating solid performance across its core business segments.Leadership changes were announced, including promotions aimed at enhancing execution and innovation, signaling a continued focus on strategic growth and product development.Affirm continues to expand its footprint in the e-commerce space, currently integrated with 80 of the top 250 e-commerce sites, representing about 10% of e-commerce merchants.

Affirm Holdings' U.K. Expansion — Can International Growth Reshape The Story?

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>At the macro-level, we believe that the “K-shaped” nature of consumer credit in the US economy may put greater pressure on delinquency, including the BNPL segment  </li>
<li>We reinstate the sell rating on Affirm shares, after its strong performance and stretched valuation, especially in terms of market cap to TPV as well as forward EV/EBITDA multiple</li>
<li>We downgrade Klarna to a neutral from buy, for its share re-rating which led to narrowing the valuation gap with BNPL- exposed Block</li>
</ul>


At the macro-level, we believe that the “K-shaped” nature of consumer credit in the US economy may put greater pressure on delinquency, including the BNPL segment  
We reinstate the sell rating on Affirm shares, after its strong performance and stretched valuation, especially in terms of market cap to TPV as well as forward EV/EBITDA multiple
We downgrade Klarna to a neutral from buy, for its share re-rating which led to narrowing the valuation gap with BNPL- exposed Block


BNPL Companies – Locking in Gains on Klarna (KLAR US), Placing a Sell on Affirm (AFRM US)

<ul><li>Affirm Holdings, Inc. reported its third quarter fiscal 2026 results highlighting continued momentum across multiple dimensions of its business.</li><li>The company emphasized a stable credit environment, with no significant deterioration in loan performance among its targeted consumers.</li><li>Affirm’s underwriting approach focuses on select consumers, contributing to stable delinquency rates.</li></ul>

Affirm Holdings, Inc. reported its third quarter fiscal 2026 results highlighting continued momentum across multiple dimensions of its business.The company emphasized a stable credit environment, with no significant deterioration in loan performance among its targeted consumers.Affirm’s underwriting approach focuses on select consumers, contributing to stable delinquency rates.

Affirm’s Shopify Engine Keeps Building — Here’s Why Pay In X Matters!

<ul><li>Affirm Holdings' recent earnings call revealed a balanced perspective on the company's performance and future outlook.</li><li>CEO Max Levchin and CFO Rob O'Hare addressed significant developments, reflecting both achievements and challenges faced by Affirm.</li><li>Affirm observed robust growth, driven largely by increased customer engagement and merchant expansion, particularly noted with the Affirm Card, which saw GMV grow by almost 160% year-over-year.</li></ul>

Affirm Holdings' recent earnings call revealed a balanced perspective on the company's performance and future outlook.CEO Max Levchin and CFO Rob O'Hare addressed significant developments, reflecting both achievements and challenges faced by Affirm.Affirm observed robust growth, driven largely by increased customer engagement and merchant expansion, particularly noted with the Affirm Card, which saw GMV grow by almost 160% year-over-year.

Affirm Holdings Inc.: Evolving Beyond BNPL — The Strategic Bet on Broader Financial Utility!

<ul>
<li>Affirm shares jumped on the 16th December, on the back of the company’s renewal of its partnership pact with Amazon for a further five years</li>
<li>Despite this constructive news, we continue to see fundamental headwinds for premium valued Affirm, given the increasingly competitive BNPL market as well as the worsening consumer credit delinquency trends</li>
<li>Also, Affirm short interest is close to a three year low and as recently as early December the Affirm CFO has sold some shares; competitor Klarna remains one to watch</li>
</ul>


Affirm shares jumped on the 16th December, on the back of the company’s renewal of its partnership pact with Amazon for a further five years
Despite this constructive news, we continue to see fundamental headwinds for premium valued Affirm, given the increasingly competitive BNPL market as well as the worsening consumer credit delinquency trends
Also, Affirm short interest is close to a three year low and as recently as early December the Affirm CFO has sold some shares; competitor Klarna remains one to watch


BNPL Companies – Re-Iterating Our Bearish View on Affirm (AFRM US)

United States

Affirm Holdings, Inc. is a financial technology company. The Company builds platform for digital and mobile-first commerce. Affirm Holdings offers financial services tool that allows consumers to purchase goods and services. Affirm Holdings serves customers worldwide.

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Affirm Holdings (AFRM US)

Affirm Holdings' U.K. Expansion — Can International Growth Reshape The Story?

Affirm Holdings reported its strongest quarterly profitability to date in its fiscal fourth quarter of 2026, with the company demonstrating solid...

Baptista Research

BNPL Companies – Locking in Gains on Klarna (KLAR US), Placing a Sell on Affirm (AFRM US)

The "K-shaped" US consumer credit market is seeing rising NPL stress leading to caution on BNPL companies; we place a sell rating on Affirm due to...

Victor Galliano

Affirm’s Shopify Engine Keeps Building — Here’s Why Pay In X Matters!

Affirm Holdings, Inc. reported its third quarter fiscal 2026 results highlighting continued momentum across multiple dimensions of its...

Baptista Research

Affirm Holdings Inc.: Evolving Beyond BNPL — The Strategic Bet on Broader Financial Utility!

Affirm Holdings' recent earnings call revealed a balanced perspective on the company's performance and future outlook. CEO Max Levchin and CFO Rob...

Baptista Research

BNPL Companies – Re-Iterating Our Bearish View on Affirm (AFRM US)

Affirm's shares face challenges in competitive BNPL market and credit trends, despite the recent Amazon partnership renewal. Technical factors...

Victor Galliano

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Market Cap (USDm)

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Affirm Holdings' U.K. Expansion — Can International Growth Reshape The Story?

Affirm Holdings reported its strongest quarterly profitability to date in its fiscal fourth quarter of 2026, with the company demonstrating solid...

Baptista Research

BNPL Companies – Locking in Gains on Klarna (KLAR US), Placing a Sell on Affirm (AFRM US)

The "K-shaped" ​US consumer credit market is seeing rising NPL stress leading to caution on BNPL companies; we place a sell rating on Affirm due to...

Victor Galliano

Affirm’s Shopify Engine Keeps Building — Here’s Why Pay In X Matters!

Affirm Holdings, Inc. reported its third quarter fiscal 2026 results highlighting continued momentum across multiple dimensions of its...

Baptista Research

Affirm Holdings Inc.: Evolving Beyond BNPL — The Strategic Bet on Broader Financial Utility!

Affirm Holdings' recent earnings call revealed a balanced perspective on the company's performance and future outlook. CEO Max Levchin and CFO Rob...

Baptista Research

BNPL Companies – Re-Iterating Our Bearish View on Affirm (AFRM US)

​Affirm's shares face challenges in competitive BNPL market and credit trends, despite the recent Amazon partnership renewal. Technical factors...

Victor Galliano

The "K-shaped" US consumer credit market is seeing rising NPL stress leading to caution on BNPL companies; we place a sell rating on Affirm due to...

Affirm's shares face challenges in competitive BNPL market and credit trends, despite the recent Amazon partnership renewal. Technical factors...