Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In 2H23 our longs Visa and PagSeguro delivered positive returns, whilst PayPal was in negative territory; among our shorts, Kakao Pay was modestly successful, DLocal and Affirm continued to appreciate</li>
<li>We retain card network megacap Visa as a core holding, and keep PagSeguro and PayPal adding Cielo to the buy list</li>
<li>We keep our negative views on DLocal and Affirm, and remove Kakao Pay from the sell list for its less marked price-to-sales multiple valuation</li>
</ul>


In 2H23 our longs Visa and PagSeguro delivered positive returns, whilst PayPal was in negative territory; among our shorts, Kakao Pay was modestly successful, DLocal and Affirm continued to appreciate
We retain card network megacap Visa as a core holding, and keep PagSeguro and PayPal adding Cielo to the buy list
We keep our negative views on DLocal and Affirm, and remove Kakao Pay from the sell list for its less marked price-to-sales multiple valuation


Payment Companies – Our High Conviction Calls for 1H 2024

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In 1H23 and in the early part of 3Q23, our longs – Visa, Wise and PagSeguro – delivered positive returns; our shorts, DLocal and Kakao Pay, were also modestly successful</li>
<li>Ahead of results to June 2023, we retain card network megacap Visa as a core holding, as well as PagSeguro; we add PayPal and drop Wise from the buy list</li>
<li>We keep our negative view on DLocal and add Affirm, given high take-rates and  premium valuations; we stick with our negative on Kakao Pay due to its lofty multiples</li>
</ul>


In 1H23 and in the early part of 3Q23, our longs – Visa, Wise and PagSeguro – delivered positive returns; our shorts, DLocal and Kakao Pay, were also modestly successful
Ahead of results to June 2023, we retain card network megacap Visa as a core holding, as well as PagSeguro; we add PayPal and drop Wise from the buy list
We keep our negative view on DLocal and add Affirm, given high take-rates and  premium valuations; we stick with our negative on Kakao Pay due to its lofty multiples


Payment Companies – 1H 2023 in Review, Our High Conviction Calls for 2H 2023

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Softbank Vision Funds 1 and 2 were the biggest combined holdings at December 2022, accounting for 30% of group equity value; SVF private companies accounted for 73% of equity value</li>
<li>To December-end 2022, public companies in SVF2 were marked down by 52% versus investment cost, whereas SVF2 private companies were marked down by a more modest 33% versus investment cost</li>
<li>We believe that SVF2 private company valuations are at risk of further markdowns in 4QFY22 results, with many of these investments made close to the period of peak pandemic valuations</li>
</ul>


Softbank Vision Funds 1 and 2 were the biggest combined holdings at December 2022, accounting for 30% of group equity value; SVF private companies accounted for 73% of equity value
To December-end 2022, public companies in SVF2 were marked down by 52% versus investment cost, whereas SVF2 private companies were marked down by a more modest 33% versus investment cost
We believe that SVF2 private company valuations are at risk of further markdowns in 4QFY22 results, with many of these investments made close to the period of peak pandemic valuations


Softbank (9984 JP) – Focus on the SVFs, Are the Private Companies Appropriately Marked?

Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

<ul>
<li>This model seeks companies facing dangerously high leverage coupled with negative or declining cash flows.  It considers interest expense, capex and short term maturities for additional input. </li>
<li>The companies may not be viable given cash flows and capital structures.  These shorts tend to have  higher betas  and can have strong down moves as the crisis is recognized.</li>
<li>This week we flag: Fastly, Affirm Holdings, Bloom Energy, Wynn Resorts</li>
</ul>


This model seeks companies facing dangerously high leverage coupled with negative or declining cash flows.  It considers interest expense, capex and short term maturities for additional input. 
The companies may not be viable given cash flows and capital structures.  These shorts tend to have  higher betas  and can have strong down moves as the crisis is recognized.
This week we flag: Fastly, Affirm Holdings, Bloom Energy, Wynn Resorts


Solvency Risk Short Candidates: Fastly, Affirm Holdings, Bloom Energy, Wynn Resorts

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<ul>
<li>Impressive Analyst Day Presentation got us bulled up on the potential for Afterpay to juice growth on both Square and the Cash App</li>
<li>Cash App getting a design overhaul to create a super app that spans commerce, investing, payments, personal finance, loans, etc. </li>
<li>Unit economics outlined today lead us to a ~40% potential EBITDA margin in 3-5 years...well higher than is currently considered by consensus today. </li>
</ul>


Impressive Analyst Day Presentation got us bulled up on the potential for Afterpay to juice growth on both Square and the Cash App
Cash App getting a design overhaul to create a super app that spans commerce, investing, payments, personal finance, loans, etc. 
Unit economics outlined today lead us to a ~40% potential EBITDA margin in 3-5 years...well higher than is currently considered by consensus today. 


United States

Affirm Holdings, Inc. is a financial technology company. The Company builds platform for digital and mobile-first commerce. Affirm Holdings offers financial services tool that allows consumers to purchase goods and services. Affirm Holdings serves customers worldwide.

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Affirm Holdings (AFRM US)

Payment Companies – Our High Conviction Calls for 1H 2024

In payments, we stick with Visa, PayPal and PagSeguro, adding Cielo to the buy list; we remain negative on DLocal and Affirm, removing Kakao Pay...

Victor Galliano

Payment Companies – 1H 2023 in Review, Our High Conviction Calls for 2H 2023

Our 2H 2023 payments company longs are card network megacap Visa, value play PagSeguro and PayPal with our short calls being DLocal, Kakao Pay and...

Victor Galliano

Softbank (9984 JP) – Focus on the SVFs, Are the Private Companies Appropriately Marked?

The NAV could be 10%-15% lower than stated now at the mid-May results release, due to a further squeeze in private company valuations; this would...

Victor Galliano

Solvency Risk Short Candidates: Fastly, Affirm Holdings, Bloom Energy, Wynn Resorts

This model seeks companies facing dangerously high leverage coupled with negative or declining cash flows. This week we flag: Fastly, Affirm...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Revisiting Long Ideas: Square (Block)

Square had a strong 1Q22 and a bullish analyst day presentation yesterday that reignited our enthusiasm for this ecosystem of ecosystems. Afterpay...

Aaron Gabin

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