Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>This week the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX</a> entered WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT status intra-week, peaking at 8384.50, then pulling back to 8283.20 at Close.</li>
<li>In this insight we will examine resistance levels the index will have a hard time to clear, without pulling back first at least 1 week.</li>
<li>According to our quantitative models, a pullback is highly likely to happen this week, or the next.</li>
</ul>


This week the S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX entered WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT status intra-week, peaking at 8384.50, then pulling back to 8283.20 at Close.
In this insight we will examine resistance levels the index will have a hard time to clear, without pulling back first at least 1 week.
According to our quantitative models, a pullback is highly likely to happen this week, or the next.


EQD | Upcoming ASX200 Pullback in 1-2 Weeks

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zip-co-ltd-3708706d-4978-4e29-acbc-d9702b971da9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29126:1" rel="noopener">Zip (ZIP AU)</a> plans to raise around US$145m in order to repay its outstanding debt.</li>
<li>The company has undertaken a number of deals in the past and has a mixed track record.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Zip (ZIP AU) plans to raise around US$145m in order to repay its outstanding debt.
The company has undertaken a number of deals in the past and has a mixed track record.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


ZIP Placement - Worth a Small Punt, at Best

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> shares stop trading after the close on 26 October and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> CDIs will start trading from the open on 27 October.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> CDIs should replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> in the S&amp;P/ASX indices from 27 October. But there could be index changes at the subsequent rebalances.</li>
<li>Based on the case of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/block-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35684:1" rel="noopener">Block (SQ2 AU)</a>, we could see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> CDIs deleted from the ASX20 Index in December and from the ASX50 Index in March/June.</li>
</ul>



Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) shares stop trading after the close on 26 October and Newmont Mining (NEM US) CDIs will start trading from the open on 27 October.

Newmont Mining (NEM US) CDIs should replace Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX indices from 27 October. But there could be index changes at the subsequent rebalances.
Based on the case of Block (SQ2 AU), we could see Newmont Mining (NEM US) CDIs deleted from the ASX20 Index in December and from the ASX50 Index in March/June.


Newcrest/Newmont & Potential S&P/ASX Changes

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> has made an indicative, non-binding and conditional proposal to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a>. The exchange ratio is 0.38 Newmont shares for each Newcrest share.</li>
<li>At <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a>'s last close, this values <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> at A$27.4/share and at an equity value of A$17.3bn, a 22% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> intends to list CDIs on the ASX following the acquisition and that will have implications for changes in the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices.</li>
</ul>



Newmont Mining (NEM US) has made an indicative, non-binding and conditional proposal to acquire Newcrest Mining (NCM AU). The exchange ratio is 0.38 Newmont shares for each Newcrest share.
At Newmont Mining (NEM US)'s last close, this values Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) at A$27.4/share and at an equity value of A$17.3bn, a 22% premium to the last close.

Newmont Mining (NEM US) intends to list CDIs on the ASX following the acquisition and that will have implications for changes in the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices.


Newmont's Indicative Offer for Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/net-protections-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35162:1" rel="noopener">Net Protections (7383 JP)</a>, a buy now pay later service provider, raised around US$570m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO in Dec 2021.</li>
<li>As per Yano Research, it had 40% market share in the domestic BNPL market for B2C transactions.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry on 9th Dec 2022.</li>
</ul>



Net Protections (7383 JP), a buy now pay later service provider, raised around US$570m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO in Dec 2021.
As per Yano Research, it had 40% market share in the domestic BNPL market for B2C transactions.
In this note, we will talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry on 9th Dec 2022.


Net Protections Holding IPO Lock-Up - PE Owner Is Free to Shed Its Remaining Stake

Australia

Afterpay Limited provides financial solutions. The Company offers payment platform that allow users to maintain financial wellness and control, by splitting payments in four, for both online and in-store purchases. Afterpay serves customers globally.

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Afterpay (APT AU)

EQD | Upcoming ASX200 Pullback in 1-2 Weeks

The ASX 200 INDEX has entered WEEKLY-overbought status, it is going to pull back in the next 1-2 weeks, but the overall trend appears healthy....

Nico Rosti

ZIP Placement - Worth a Small Punt, at Best

Zip (ZIP AU) plans to raise around US$145m in order to repay its outstanding debt. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal...

Sumeet Singh

Newcrest/Newmont & Potential S&P/ASX Changes

Newmont CDIs should replace Newcrest in the ASX indices. Using Block as a precedent, a decrease in the number of CDIs held in Oz could lead to...

Brian Freitas

Newmont's Indicative Offer for Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)

Newmont is looking to acquire Newcrest Mining at an exchange ratio of 0.38 NEM shares per NCM share. That is a 22% premium for NCM. NEM intends to...

Brian Freitas

Net Protections Holding IPO Lock-Up - PE Owner Is Free to Shed Its Remaining Stake

Net Protections, a buy now pay later service provider, raised around US$570m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO in...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EQD | Upcoming ASX200 Pullback in 1-2 Weeks

​The ASX 200 INDEX has entered WEEKLY-overbought status, it is going to pull back in the next 1-2 weeks, but the overall trend appears healthy....

Nico Rosti

ZIP Placement - Worth a Small Punt, at Best

Zip (ZIP AU) plans to raise around US$145m in order to repay its outstanding debt. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal...

Sumeet Singh

Newcrest/Newmont & Potential S&P/ASX Changes

Newmont CDIs should replace Newcrest in the ASX indices. Using Block as a precedent, a decrease in the number of CDIs held in Oz could lead to...

Brian Freitas

Newmont's Indicative Offer for Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)

Newmont is looking to acquire Newcrest Mining at an exchange ratio of 0.38 NEM shares per NCM share. That is a 22% premium for NCM. NEM intends to...

Brian Freitas

Net Protections Holding IPO Lock-Up - PE Owner Is Free to Shed Its Remaining Stake

Net Protections, a buy now pay later service provider, raised around US$570m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO in...

Sumeet Singh

The ASX 200 INDEX has entered WEEKLY-overbought status, it is going to pull back in the next 1-2 weeks, but the overall trend appears healthy....