IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genex-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29079:1" rel="noopener">Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)</a> has entered a transaction implementation deed with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/electric-power-development-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:292:1" rel="noopener">Electric Power Development C (9513 JP)</a> for a scheme (A$0.275) and an off-market takeover offer (A$0.270). </li>
<li>Skip could vote against the scheme due to the low 10% premium to its 2022 offer and Genex’s operational capacity rising by 2.7x by the end of 2024.</li>
<li>The likely scenario is that J-POWER succeeds with its takeover offer. At the last close, the gross spread of the scheme and takeover offer was 3.8% and 1.9%, respectively.   </li>
</ul>



Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU) has entered a transaction implementation deed with Electric Power Development C (9513 JP) for a scheme (A$0.275) and an off-market takeover offer (A$0.270). 
Skip could vote against the scheme due to the low 10% premium to its 2022 offer and Genex’s operational capacity rising by 2.7x by the end of 2024.
The likely scenario is that J-POWER succeeds with its takeover offer. At the last close, the gross spread of the scheme and takeover offer was 3.8% and 1.9%, respectively.   


Genex Power (GNX AU): J-Power’s Binding Proposal as Skip’s Intentions Remain Unknown

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genex-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29079:1" rel="noopener">Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)</a> has disclosed a non-binding scheme proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/electric-power-development-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:292:1" rel="noopener">Electric Power Development C (9513 JP)</a> at A$0.275, a 48.6% premium to the undisturbed price of A$0.185.</li>
<li>If the scheme fails, J-Power will launch an off-market takeover offer with a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition at A$0.270 per share. The dual-track bid is meant to counter Skip's stake.</li>
<li>The Board has granted exclusive due diligence until 31 March. The offer is attractive, but the scheme's completion hinges on Skip Capital’s acceptance.  </li>
</ul>



Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU) has disclosed a non-binding scheme proposal from Electric Power Development C (9513 JP) at A$0.275, a 48.6% premium to the undisturbed price of A$0.185.
If the scheme fails, J-Power will launch an off-market takeover offer with a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition at A$0.270 per share. The dual-track bid is meant to counter Skip's stake.
The Board has granted exclusive due diligence until 31 March. The offer is attractive, but the scheme's completion hinges on Skip Capital’s acceptance.  


Genex Power (GNX AU): J-Power’s Dual-Track Non-Binding Proposal

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>For the month of January 2024, 8 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$2bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in January was ~34%. </li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of January 2024, 8 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$2bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in January was ~34%. 
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Jan 2024: Newmark, Eureka, Aoki, Medley, Payroll, Kerry Express, Genetron, TDCX

<ul>
<li>For the month of December 2023, 16 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$10bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in December was 44.7%. The average YTD is 39% (117 deals).</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of December 2023, 16 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$10bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in December was 44.7%. The average YTD is 39% (117 deals).
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Dec 2023: Vinda, Adbri, Perpetual, CPMC, Sigma Health, Shinko Electric

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a2-milk-co-ltd-95d4fbed-afa1-41e9-bafb-a5f1ef97622e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22775:1" rel="noopener">A2 Milk Co Ltd (A2M AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:678:1" rel="noopener">AMP Ltd (AMP AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charter-hall-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5593:1" rel="noopener">Charter Hall (CHC AU)</a> will be deleted from the MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index at the close 15 December.</li>
<li>Constituent changes plus capping and float changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.05% and will result in a one-way trade of A$99m.</li>
<li>There is a fair amount of short interest on the deletions and shorts could look to cover against the passive flow.</li>
</ul>



A2 Milk Co Ltd (A2M AU), AMP Ltd (AMP AU) and Charter Hall (CHC AU) will be deleted from the MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index at the close 15 December.
Constituent changes plus capping and float changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.05% and will result in a one-way trade of A$99m.
There is a fair amount of short interest on the deletions and shorts could look to cover against the passive flow.


MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: Three Deletions & Other Changes

Australia

AGL Energy Limited sells and distributes gas and electricity. The Company retails and wholesales energy and fuel products to customers throughout Australia.

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AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU)

Genex Power (GNX AU): J-Power’s Binding Proposal as Skip’s Intentions Remain Unknown

Skip could derail the scheme vote. The likely scenario is that J-POWER succeeds with its takeover offer. At the last close, the gross spread of the...

Arun George

Genex Power (GNX AU): J-Power’s Dual-Track Non-Binding Proposal

The NBIO is attractive, but the scheme's completion hinges on Skip’s acceptance. The off-market takeover is the floor price, as the minimum...

Arun George

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Jan 2024: Newmark, Eureka, Aoki, Medley, Payroll, Kerry Express, Genetron, TDCX

For the month of January 2024, 8 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Dec 2023: Vinda, Adbri, Perpetual, CPMC, Sigma Health, Shinko Electric

For the month of December, 16 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$10bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: Three Deletions & Other Changes

There are 3 deletions for the index in December. Estimated one-way turnover is 5% resulting in a one-way trade of A$99m. Shorts will look to cover...

Brian Freitas

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