Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Equity Bottom-Up

Zijin Gold International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> , post the meteoric rise in its share price since listing last week, is now the most expensive gold miner stocks, globally, on an EV/Reserve basis.</li>
<li>Investor expectations of gold prices climbing higher, driven by the yen’s sharp drop, a U.S. government shutdown, and growing anticipation of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts, are fueling the stock.</li>
<li>For Hong Kong investors, Zijin Gold is the only pure-play, globally diversified gold miner, with expectations of index inclusion and strong demand driving its share price above fundamentals.</li>
</ul>



Zijin Gold (2259 HK) , post the meteoric rise in its share price since listing last week, is now the most expensive gold miner stocks, globally, on an EV/Reserve basis.
Investor expectations of gold prices climbing higher, driven by the yen’s sharp drop, a U.S. government shutdown, and growing anticipation of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts, are fueling the stock.
For Hong Kong investors, Zijin Gold is the only pure-play, globally diversified gold miner, with expectations of index inclusion and strong demand driving its share price above fundamentals.


Zijin Gold (2259 HK): 100% Surge Since IPO. What Gold Price Is Priced In Now?

Equity Capital Markets

Zijin Gold International / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Riding on strong investor demand, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a>  has exercised its over-allotment option, boosting the total IPO size to USD 3.7 billion from USD 3.2 billion previously.</li>
<li>As Hong Kong’s only pure-play gold miner with global exposure, Zijin Gold may command a premium, though any sharp price gains still depend on sustained gold price strength.</li>
<li>Investors should define their medium- to-long-term gold price thresholds to shape a clear post-IPO strategy for Zijin Gold.</li>
</ul>


Riding on strong investor demand, Zijin Gold (2259 HK)  has exercised its over-allotment option, boosting the total IPO size to USD 3.7 billion from USD 3.2 billion previously.
As Hong Kong’s only pure-play gold miner with global exposure, Zijin Gold may command a premium, though any sharp price gains still depend on sustained gold price strength.
Investors should define their medium- to-long-term gold price thresholds to shape a clear post-IPO strategy for Zijin Gold.


Zijin Gold : Listing Pop Likely. Know Your Thresholds. Avoid Valuation Pitfalls.

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> priced its IPO at HK$71.59 per share to raise gross proceeds of approximately US$3.2 billion. The shares will begin trading on September 30.</li>
<li>The IPO was discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zijin-gold-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:201176" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zijin-gold-ipo-2259-hk-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:202646" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights</a>.</li>
<li>The market sentiment of the peers has increased since the IPO launch. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.</li>
</ul>



Zijin Gold (2259 HK) priced its IPO at HK$71.59 per share to raise gross proceeds of approximately US$3.2 billion. The shares will begin trading on September 30.
The IPO was discussed in Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case and Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights.
The market sentiment of the peers has increased since the IPO launch. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.


Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>Zijin Gold IPO will start trading on 30 September. Zijin Gold is aiming to raise US$3.2 billion (HK$24.98 billion) from its IPO, offering 349 million shares at HK$71.59 each.</li>
<li>Our base case valuation of Zijin Gold is HK$124.7 per share (74.2% higher than the IPO price). We expect a sharply higher pop on the first day of trading.</li>
<li>If its share price appreciates more than 30-50% or more, we think it is prudent to take some profits off the table (at least 25%-30% of total investment). </li>
</ul>


Zijin Gold IPO will start trading on 30 September. Zijin Gold is aiming to raise US$3.2 billion (HK$24.98 billion) from its IPO, offering 349 million shares at HK$71.59 each.
Our base case valuation of Zijin Gold is HK$124.7 per share (74.2% higher than the IPO price). We expect a sharply higher pop on the first day of trading.
If its share price appreciates more than 30-50% or more, we think it is prudent to take some profits off the table (at least 25%-30% of total investment). 


Trading Strategy of Zijin Gold on the First Day of IPO

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> is a global leading gold mining company and the overseas gold segment of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24628:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)</a>. It has launched an HKEx IPO to raise US$3.2bn.</li>
<li>I previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zijin-gold-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:201176" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zijin-gold-ipo-phip-updates-support-the-investment-thesis" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:201970" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold IPO: PHIP Updates Support the Investment Thesis</a>.</li>
<li>In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.</li>
</ul>



Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is a global leading gold mining company and the overseas gold segment of Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH). It has launched an HKEx IPO to raise US$3.2bn.
I previously discussed the IPO in Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case and Zijin Gold IPO: PHIP Updates Support the Investment Thesis.
In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.


Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights

Canada

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited is a gold producer with operations primarily in northwestern Quebec, northern Mexico, northern Finland and Nunavut.  The Company also has exploration activities in Canada, Europe, Latin America, and the United States.  Agnico Eagle Mines focuses on the exploration, development, and expansion of its gold properities primarily from underground operations.

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Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM US)

Zijin Gold (2259 HK): 100% Surge Since IPO. What Gold Price Is Priced In Now?

Bullish gold expectations, potential index inclusion, limited free float, and strong investor demand pushes Zijin Gold above fundamentals.

Devi Subhakesan

Zijin Gold : Listing Pop Likely. Know Your Thresholds. Avoid Valuation Pitfalls.

Over allotment raises issue size and valuation; post-IPO investment strategy should be guided by your gold price outlook and valuation thresholds....

Devi Subhakesan

Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Trading Debut

The market sentiment of the peers has increased since the IPO launch. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.

Arun George

Trading Strategy of Zijin Gold on the First Day of IPO

Zijin Gold IPO will start trading on 30 September. Our base case valuation of Zijin Gold is HK$124.7 per share (74.2% higher than the IPO price).

Douglas Kim

Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights

Zijin Gold has launched an HKEx IPO to raise US$3.2bn. In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price...

Arun George

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