Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Index Rebalance

Zijin Gold International / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We screen for HSI ADD candidates ahead of the review result, due on 20 Nov 2026 after market close.</li>
<li>Four stocks are screened as mid-conviction ADD candidates this cycle.</li>
<li>Three of the four are in the most underweight industry group, and the fourth is in Healthcare.</li>
</ul>


We screen for HSI ADD candidates ahead of the review result, due on 20 Nov 2026 after market close.
Four stocks are screened as mid-conviction ADD candidates this cycle.
Three of the four are in the most underweight industry group, and the fourth is in Healthcare.


HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Zijin Gold International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Stock price of Zijin Gold fluctuated up and down and not closely followed gold prices, which may disappoint investors who buy gold companies to take advantage of rising gold prices.</li>
<li>We'll reduce holdings of gold/silver and hold cash to deal with liquidity crises. Given the hyperinflation brought about by dollar depreciation, we'll focus on inflation trading after liquidity crisis occurs.</li>
<li>The main investment targets we will select include: commodities (e.g. gold, silver, copper). Upstream gold mining companies (e.g. Zijin Mining, Zijin Gold) will have priority over downstream company like Laopu.</li>
</ul>


Stock price of Zijin Gold fluctuated up and down and not closely followed gold prices, which may disappoint investors who buy gold companies to take advantage of rising gold prices.
We'll reduce holdings of gold/silver and hold cash to deal with liquidity crises. Given the hyperinflation brought about by dollar depreciation, we'll focus on inflation trading after liquidity crisis occurs.
The main investment targets we will select include: commodities (e.g. gold, silver, copper). Upstream gold mining companies (e.g. Zijin Mining, Zijin Gold) will have priority over downstream company like Laopu.


Zijin Gold (2259 HK) Vs Laopu Gold (6181 HK) Vs Gold Commodity- The Investment Logic and the Outlook

<ul>
<li>We review the HSLMI universe for potential candidates for the upcoming HSI August 2026 review.</li>
<li>Three stocks stand out as ADD candidates this cycle, one of them high conviction.</li>
<li>We also highlight substantial FF and weight changes for CATL.</li>
</ul>


We review the HSLMI universe for potential candidates for the upcoming HSI August 2026 review.
Three stocks stand out as ADD candidates this cycle, one of them high conviction.
We also highlight substantial FF and weight changes for CATL.


Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong Alpha portfolio gained 16.26% in January resulting in a 6.2% outperformance to its benchmark.  The portfolio has outperformed HK indexes by 48% to 63% since inception on 10/1/24.</li>
<li>Hong Kong Alpha has generated 50% of its return from alpha and has a Sharpe ratio of 1.79 since inception.  The portfolio's annualized mean excess return is 28%.</li>
<li>At the end of January, we reduced positions in the materials, communications, and conglomerate sectors and added positions in the food, energy, and manufacturing sectors.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong Alpha portfolio gained 16.26% in January resulting in a 6.2% outperformance to its benchmark.  The portfolio has outperformed HK indexes by 48% to 63% since inception on 10/1/24.
Hong Kong Alpha has generated 50% of its return from alpha and has a Sharpe ratio of 1.79 since inception.  The portfolio's annualized mean excess return is 28%.
At the end of January, we reduced positions in the materials, communications, and conglomerate sectors and added positions in the food, energy, and manufacturing sectors.


HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (January 2026)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.</li>
<li>The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 22.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$10.2bn.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have underperformed the forecast deletes since the last Insight that highlighted the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 22.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$10.2bn.
The forecast adds have underperformed the forecast deletes since the last Insight that highlighted the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$10bn

Hong Kong

Zijin Gold International Company Limited is a Hong Kong-based subsidiary of Zijin Mining Group, primarily engaged in the exploration, mining, processing, and sale of gold and other mineral resources. Its main products include gold bullion, gold alloy, and gold concentrate, with a focus on developing high-quality global gold assets. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

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Zijin Gold International (2259 HK)

HSI Dec 2026 Index Rebalance Forecast

We expect 4 mid-conviction ADDs with no DELETE, and Energy, Materials, Industrials, Conglomerates remains the most underweight industry group in...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) Vs Laopu Gold (6181 HK) Vs Gold Commodity- The Investment Logic and the Outlook

We've witnessed declines in gold commodity/stocks due to rising inflation caused by anti-Iran war, resulting in rising interest rate/strong...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HSI Sep 2026 Index Rebalance Forecast

We reviewed the HSLMI candidates for the upcoming HSI index review and expect three possible ADDs and no DELETE. We also highlight FF changes in CATL.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (January 2026)

At the end of January, we began to move out of materials and tech and into early cycle sectors. We continue with mid-month exposure adjustments: we...

David Mudd

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$10bn

The change in benchmark for GDX should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes in Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 22.9% resulting in a round-trip trade...

Brian Freitas

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