Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>AH Premia continue to fall. Spread curve torsion was a barbell this week. Narrow and wide spreads see Hs outperform. Middling spreads outperform less.</li>
<li>To me, warning signs are flashing on spreads. They are at their narrowest in 5yrs and they are volatile, though volatility is coming down.</li>
<li>Lots of spreads see the HA premium less than 15%. That is historically tight.</li>
</ul>


AH Premia continue to fall. Spread curve torsion was a barbell this week. Narrow and wide spreads see Hs outperform. Middling spreads outperform less.
To me, warning signs are flashing on spreads. They are at their narrowest in 5yrs and they are volatile, though volatility is coming down.
Lots of spreads see the HA premium less than 15%. That is historically tight.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 14 Mar 2025):  AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 150 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 83.5% as of Mar 14th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -0.9ppt week-on-week, led by consumer discretionary, consumer staples, energy and offset by information technology, real estate, materials.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for CIMC, Sinotrans, Joinn Lab, Huahong Semicon, Huaneng Power, Tigermed, Asymchem Lab.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 150 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 83.5% as of Mar 14th.
The average A-H premium changed by -0.9ppt week-on-week, led by consumer discretionary, consumer staples, energy and offset by information technology, real estate, materials.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for CIMC, Sinotrans, Joinn Lab, Huahong Semicon, Huaneng Power, Tigermed, Asymchem Lab.


A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 14th): CIMC, Sinotrans, Joinn Lab, Huahong Semicon, Huaneng Power

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A stealth bull market is underway in Chinese bank shares </li>
<li>Banks are well positioned to benefit as the economy grows and interest rates rise</li>
<li>Value remains in the sector despite the  move up in share prices</li>
</ul>


A stealth bull market is underway in Chinese bank shares 
Banks are well positioned to benefit as the economy grows and interest rates rise
Value remains in the sector despite the  move up in share prices


Who Is Crazy Enough to Buy a Chinese Bank?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We discussed last week (Feb. 27 Int'l Compass) how both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts, and to look for near-term pullbacks</li>
<li>We said expect pullbacks to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on the S&amp;P 500 in the coming weeks, where we would be buyers.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is testing the 5770-5850 range now, while ACWI-US is testing its 200-day MA at $117. It is possible ACWI-US finds support here. Upgrading Europe to overweight</li>
</ul>


We discussed last week (Feb. 27 Int'l Compass) how both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts, and to look for near-term pullbacks
We said expect pullbacks to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on the S&amp;P 500 in the coming weeks, where we would be buyers.
The S&amp;P 500 is testing the 5770-5850 range now, while ACWI-US is testing its 200-day MA at $117. It is possible ACWI-US finds support here. Upgrading Europe to overweight


Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>There was a release from the State Council in China in late September about increasing Tier 1 capital of 6 of China's banks through a government capital injection</li>
<li>This week there was a Bloomberg story on this, but only them, talking about something similar and indicating at least RMB400bn of new capital for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agricultural-bank-of-china-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1120:1" rel="noopener"></a>ABC and BoCom.</li>
<li>Interpolating from the numbers, there can be a 10% increase in total equity which may also be equivalent or nearly equivalent or slightly higher than total stated NPLs </li>
</ul>


There was a release from the State Council in China in late September about increasing Tier 1 capital of 6 of China's banks through a government capital injection
This week there was a Bloomberg story on this, but only them, talking about something similar and indicating at least RMB400bn of new capital for ABC and BoCom.
Interpolating from the numbers, there can be a 10% increase in total equity which may also be equivalent or nearly equivalent or slightly higher than total stated NPLs 


China Banks - If Largest 5 Banks Are Recapitalized with RMB1,415bn It Can Be Highly Positive

China

Agricultural Bank of China Limited provides a full range of commercial banking services. The Banks services includes RMB and foreign currency deposit, loan, international and domestic settlement, bill discount, currency trading, bank guarantee, and treasury bill underwriting.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Agricultural Bank Of China (1288 HK)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 14 Mar 2025): AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening

AH Premia still falling at a slower pace. Hs outperform As despite HK underperforming A-share blue chips. Lots of AH premia <20%. Vol dropping...

Travis Lundy

A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 14th): CIMC, Sinotrans, Joinn Lab, Huahong Semicon, Huaneng Power

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for CIMC, Sinotrans, Joinn Lab, Huahong Semicon, Huaneng Power,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Who Is Crazy Enough to Buy a Chinese Bank?

Chinese bank shares are experiencing a stealth bull market. Value and drivers still remain in the sector despite the negativity on the economy

Rikki Malik

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. $SPX for a Downgrade to Market Weight. $ACWI and $SPX likely bottoming here at 200-day MAs. Bullish...

Vermilion Research

China Banks - If Largest 5 Banks Are Recapitalized with RMB1,415bn It Can Be Highly Positive

BBG article about China recapitalizing its largest 5 banks, may be real news, coming after an official release in September. Recapping banks can be...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 14 Mar 2025): AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening

AH Premia still falling at a slower pace. Hs outperform As despite HK underperforming A-share blue chips. Lots of AH premia <20%. Vol dropping...

Travis Lundy

A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 14th): CIMC, Sinotrans, Joinn Lab, Huahong Semicon, Huaneng Power

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for CIMC, Sinotrans, Joinn Lab, Huahong Semicon, Huaneng Power,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Who Is Crazy Enough to Buy a Chinese Bank?

​Chinese bank shares are experiencing a stealth bull market. Value and drivers still remain in the sector despite the negativity on the economy

Rikki Malik

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. $SPX for a Downgrade to Market Weight. $ACWI and $SPX likely bottoming here at 200-day MAs. Bullish...

Vermilion Research

China Banks - If Largest 5 Banks Are Recapitalized with RMB1,415bn It Can Be Highly Positive

BBG article about China recapitalizing its largest 5 banks, may be real news, coming after an official release in September. Recapping banks can be...

Daniel Tabbush

Chinese bank shares are experiencing a stealth bull market. Value and drivers still remain in the sector despite the negativity on the economy