Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> all have elevated implied vols vs their peers and vs historical observations for October.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>  implied vols are on the low end of what is typically realized in October.</li>
<li>Most markets see price weakness in the 3rd week of the month with realized volatility underperforming over the back half of the month.</li>
</ul>



Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX), Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) and Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) all have elevated implied vols vs their peers and vs historical observations for October.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) , S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)  implied vols are on the low end of what is typically realized in October.
Most markets see price weakness in the 3rd week of the month with realized volatility underperforming over the back half of the month.


EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The new excitement of the MS&amp;AD story is the company's commitment to sell down all of its cross-shareholdings and to use proceeds to fund growth and dividends. </li>
<li>ROE is already far higher now than in recent years, and this can continue with rising dividends. </li>
<li>Monthly insurance sales figures give a good window on the core business, with growth rates in May YoY and YTD accelerating.</li>
</ul>


The new excitement of the MS&amp;AD story is the company's commitment to sell down all of its cross-shareholdings and to use proceeds to fund growth and dividends. 
ROE is already far higher now than in recent years, and this can continue with rising dividends. 
Monthly insurance sales figures give a good window on the core business, with growth rates in May YoY and YTD accelerating.


MS&AD Insurance - Sell Stocks to Zero; Drive Growth, Dividends. HFD on Policy Sales, Accelerating

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>AIA is scheduled to report 1H26 earnings on Aug 20 (HKT), pre-market.</li><li>We expect Group VONB to rise 12%/15% YoY on a CER/AER basis in 1H26, translating into 10% YoY growth (CER) in 2Q26 (vs. 1Q26: +13% CER).</li><li>The 2Q moderation is likely due to a high base of participating sales in HK prior to the illustration rate cap adjustment in July 2025. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

AIA is scheduled to report 1H26 earnings on Aug 20 (HKT), pre-market.We expect Group VONB to rise 12%/15% YoY on a CER/AER basis in 1H26, translating into 10% YoY growth (CER) in 2Q26 (vs. 1Q26: +13% CER).The 2Q moderation is likely due to a high base of participating sales in HK prior to the illustration rate cap adjustment in July 2025. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

AIA Group Ltd. (1299 HK) - 1H26 Preview: 2Q VONB Moderate While OPAT on Track

Smartkarma AI Primers, Smartkarma

αSK Primers

Smartkarma AI Primers

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

<ul>
 <li>
Market Leader with Premier Distribution: AIA is the largest independent, publicly listed pan-Asian life insurance group, with a dominant presence in 18 Asia-Pacific markets. Its key competitive advantage, or 'moat', is its high-quality 'Premier Agency' force, which is significantly more productive than peers and has been a consistent driver of profitable new business growth.</li>
 <li>
Structural Growth Tailwinds: The company is strategically positioned to benefit from powerful long-term demographic and economic trends in Asia, including a rapidly growing middle class, rising wealth, aging populations, and a substantial 'protection gap' due to limited social welfare systems.</li>
 <li>
Strong Financial Performance and Capital Management: AIA has a track record of delivering strong growth in key metrics like Value of New Business (VONB) and operating profit. The company maintains a robust capital position and is committed to returning capital to shareholders through consistent dividend growth and share buyback programs.</li>
</ul>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


  
Market Leader with Premier Distribution: AIA is the largest independent, publicly listed pan-Asian life insurance group, with a dominant presence in 18 Asia-Pacific markets. Its key competitive advantage, or 'moat', is its high-quality 'Premier Agency' force, which is significantly more productive than peers and has been a consistent driver of profitable new business growth.
  
Structural Growth Tailwinds: The company is strategically positioned to benefit from powerful long-term demographic and economic trends in Asia, including a rapidly growing middle class, rising wealth, aging populations, and a substantial 'protection gap' due to limited social welfare systems.
  
Strong Financial Performance and Capital Management: AIA has a track record of delivering strong growth in key metrics like Value of New Business (VONB) and operating profit. The company maintains a robust capital position and is committed to returning capital to shareholders through consistent dividend growth and share buyback programs.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

<ul>
 <li>
<a href="https://smartkarma.com/entities/aia-group-limited">AIA</a> stands as the largest pan-Asian life and health insurer, uniquely positioned to capitalize on the region's profound structural growth drivers, including a burgeoning middle class, low insurance penetration, and significant protection and retirement gaps.</li>
 <li>The company's primary competitive advantage lies in its high-quality, proprietary agency distribution network, which is a key engine for generating profitable new business, particularly in high-growth markets like Mainland China and Hong Kong.</li>
 <li>While facing macroeconomic headwinds and regulatory scrutiny in key markets, <a href="https://smartkarma.com/entities/aia-group-limited">AIA</a>'s strong financial position, consistent execution, and focus on long-term value creation through its Value of New Business (VONB) metric underpin a positive outlook, complemented by a commitment to shareholder returns via dividends and buybacks.</li>
</ul>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


  
AIA stands as the largest pan-Asian life and health insurer, uniquely positioned to capitalize on the region's profound structural growth drivers, including a burgeoning middle class, low insurance penetration, and significant protection and retirement gaps.
  The company's primary competitive advantage lies in its high-quality, proprietary agency distribution network, which is a key engine for generating profitable new business, particularly in high-growth markets like Mainland China and Hong Kong.
  While facing macroeconomic headwinds and regulatory scrutiny in key markets, AIA's strong financial position, consistent execution, and focus on long-term value creation through its Value of New Business (VONB) metric underpin a positive outlook, complemented by a commitment to shareholder returns via dividends and buybacks.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Hong Kong

AIA Group is a Hong Kong-based multinational insurance and finance corporation, and the largest publicly traded life insurance group in the Asia-Pacific region. It offers a wide range of products including life, accident, and health insurance, savings plans, employee benefits, and wealth management services. The company was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.

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AIA Group (AAGIY US)

EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...

John Ley

MS&AD Insurance - Sell Stocks to Zero; Drive Growth, Dividends. HFD on Policy Sales, Accelerating

MS&AD commits to sell down its cross-shareholding to zero, proceeds to fund growth, dividends. Core insurance sales improving, with April and May...

Daniel Tabbush

AIA Group Ltd. (1299 HK) - 1H26 Preview: 2Q VONB Moderate While OPAT on Track

We expect Group VONB to rise 12%/15% YoY on a CER/AER basis in 1H26, translating into 10% YoY growth (CER) in 2Q26 (vs. 1Q26: +13% CER).

CMB International

Primer: AIA Group (AAGIY US) - Aug 2026

Market Leader with Premier Distribution: AIA is the largest independent, publicly listed pan-Asian life insurance group, with a dominant...

αSK Primers

Primer: AIA (1299 HK) - Aug 2026

AIA stands as the largest pan-Asian life and health insurer, uniquely positioned to capitalize on the region's profound structural growth...

αSK Primers

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EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

​Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...

John Ley

MS&AD Insurance - Sell Stocks to Zero; Drive Growth, Dividends. HFD on Policy Sales, Accelerating

MS&AD commits to sell down its cross-shareholding to zero, proceeds to fund growth, dividends. Core insurance sales improving, with April and May...

Daniel Tabbush

AIA Group Ltd. (1299 HK) - 1H26 Preview: 2Q VONB Moderate While OPAT on Track

We expect Group VONB to rise 12%/15% YoY on a CER/AER basis in 1H26, translating into 10% YoY growth (CER) in 2Q26 (vs. 1Q26: +13% CER).

CMB International

Primer: AIA Group (AAGIY US) - Aug 2026

Market Leader with Premier Distribution: AIA is the largest independent, publicly listed pan-Asian life insurance group, with a dominant...

αSK Primers

Primer: AIA (1299 HK) - Aug 2026

AIA stands as the largest pan-Asian life and health insurer, uniquely positioned to capitalize on the region's profound structural growth...

αSK Primers

Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...