Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>AIA will certainly define the radar for Asia's insurance company, since its market capitalization is the highest at USD94bn</li>
<li>Insurance companies can see major mark downs from corporate bonds related to China property, and from China Evergrande liquidation</li>
<li>A worsening economic outlook in China and also in Hong Kong, can mean that AIA and large insurers in the region, see bond impairments</li>
</ul>


AIA will certainly define the radar for Asia's insurance company, since its market capitalization is the highest at USD94bn
Insurance companies can see major mark downs from corporate bonds related to China property, and from China Evergrande liquidation
A worsening economic outlook in China and also in Hong Kong, can mean that AIA and large insurers in the region, see bond impairments


AIA - Largest Insurer in Asia Pacific, Risks Heightened with China Evergrande Liquidation

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 14th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Jd.Com, Ntes, Montage Tech, Kingboard Laminates, Minimax, Smic.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 14th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Jd.Com, Ntes, Montage Tech, Kingboard Laminates, Minimax, Smic.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Jd.Com, Ntes, Montage Tech, Kingboard Laminates, Minimax, Smic

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Aug 21st based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Kuaishou (1024 HK), Jd Logistics (2618 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Link Reit (823 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Aug 21st based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Kuaishou (1024 HK), Jd Logistics (2618 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Link Reit (823 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Aug 21st): Tencent, Kuaishou, Jd Logistics, Cowell, Sinopec Seg

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The heavy decline in EM allocations that started in early 2021 came to an end last October. Since then, a growing number of Global Equity funds are raising allocations.</li>
<li>Taiwan, China &amp; HK, Mexico and Indonesia are at the heart of these moves, but all major countries are still held underweight, on average.</li>
<li>Stock exposures remain heavily skewed to the large caps, with 38% of the EM allocation in 6 key companies.</li>
</ul>


The heavy decline in EM allocations that started in early 2021 came to an end last October. Since then, a growing number of Global Equity funds are raising allocations.
Taiwan, China &amp; HK, Mexico and Indonesia are at the heart of these moves, but all major countries are still held underweight, on average.
Stock exposures remain heavily skewed to the large caps, with 38% of the EM allocation in 6 key companies.


Global Equity Managers Trim EM Underweight, but Remain Bearish

<ul>
<li>Asia underweight funds LATAM overweight.  Asia’s ‘big 4’, account for 64.4% of the average fund.  MENA region suffers from a lack of ownership, with Saudi Arabia held underweight by -2.92%.</li>
<li>Tech moves to the top sector holding after capturing strong inflows, displacing Financials which saw heavy outflows and negative rotation.</li>
<li>TSMC, Samsung, Tencent and Alibaba are the consensus holding.  All 4 are owned by at least 70% of funds and form the backbone of most active GEM equity funds.</li>
</ul>


Asia underweight funds LATAM overweight.  Asia’s ‘big 4’, account for 64.4% of the average fund.  MENA region suffers from a lack of ownership, with Saudi Arabia held underweight by -2.92%.
Tech moves to the top sector holding after capturing strong inflows, displacing Financials which saw heavy outflows and negative rotation.
TSMC, Samsung, Tencent and Alibaba are the consensus holding.  All 4 are owned by at least 70% of funds and form the backbone of most active GEM equity funds.


Emerging Market Funds:  Top-Down Positioning and Fund Flows Update

Hong Kong

AIA Group is a Hong Kong-based multinational insurance and finance corporation, and the largest publicly traded life insurance group in the Asia-Pacific region. It offers a wide range of products including life, accident, and health insurance, savings plans, employee benefits, and wealth management services. The company was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.

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AIA Group (AAGIY US)

AIA - Largest Insurer in Asia Pacific, Risks Heightened with China Evergrande Liquidation

Asia Pacific insurance companies can be at risk from mark downs due to the Evergrande liquidation and worsening property risks in China, and also...

Daniel Tabbush

HK Short Interest Weekly: Jd.Com, Ntes, Montage Tech, Kingboard Laminates, Minimax, Smic

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 14th and highlight short interest changes in Jd.Com, Ntes, Montage...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Aug 21st): Tencent, Kuaishou, Jd Logistics, Cowell, Sinopec Seg

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Tencent (700 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Global Equity Managers Trim EM Underweight, but Remain Bearish

A growing number of Global Equity long-only funds are rotating back in, or moving to an overweight stance in Emerging Markets.

Steven Holden

Emerging Market Funds: Top-Down Positioning and Fund Flows Update

Asia underweight funds LATAM overweight. Asia’s ‘big 4’, account for 64% of the average fund. MENA region suffers from a lack of ownership, Tech...

Steven Holden

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