Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Over the past several weeks we have outlined the case for our increasingly bullish outlook, noting that market internals remain favorable and S&amp;P 500 and MSCI ACWI price trends are showing evidence of early-stage uptrend formations. In today’s report we provide an overview of international markets and highlight our top recommendations.

Over the past several weeks we have outlined the case for our increasingly bullish outlook, noting that market internals remain favorable and S&amp;P 500 and MSCI ACWI price trends are showing evidence of early-stage uptrend formations. In today’s report we provide an overview of international markets and highlight our top recommendations.

Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

A recent Bloomberg article titled "China's about to give global finance the chance of a lifetime" made me smile. In the article Bloomberg predicts that in the thirteen years between 2017 and 2030 foreign bank assets will rise from RMB 3.2 Trillion to RMB 18.8 Trillion (a CAGR of 15%) taking their market share from 1.3% to 3.1%. The underlying assumption seems to be that total bank assets will grow at a CAGR of 7%. Given bank assets currently equal about 3x GDP, one assumes that 7% is also the…

A recent Bloomberg article titled "China's about to give global finance the chance of a lifetime" made me smile. In the article Bloomberg predicts that in the thirteen years between 2017 and 2030 foreign bank assets will rise from RMB 3.2 Trillion to RMB 18.8 Trillion (a CAGR of 15%) taking their market share from 1.3% to 3.1%. The underlying assumption seems to be that total bank assets will grow at a CAGR of 7%. Given bank assets currently equal about 3x GDP, one assumes that 7% is also the…

Money Matters: Chinese Financial System Opening Up- The Chance of a Lifetime?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Bottom-Up

Ping An Healthcare and Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27008" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1">Ping An Healthcare And Techn (1833 HK)</a>/PAHTG's IPO turned out to be a damp squib and the shares are currently trading below its IPO price. Press reports disingenuously blamed the poor share price performance on investors (suddenly) worrying about its high valuation. However, the signs are that investors' worries are about to ratchet up a notch.The competitive intensity is heating up with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1">Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK)</a>-backed WeDoctor completing a $500 million funding round and announcing a…

Ping An Healthcare And Techn (1833 HK)/PAHTG's IPO turned out to be a damp squib and the shares are currently trading below its IPO price. Press reports disingenuously blamed the poor share price performance on investors (suddenly) worrying about its high valuation. However, the signs are that investors' worries are about to ratchet up a notch.The competitive intensity is heating up with Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK)-backed WeDoctor completing a $500 million funding round and announcing a…

Ping An Good Doctor: Competition Ratcheting up the Pressure

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

* Unresolved Accounting Questions: A recently changed FYE to December coupled with a failure to disclose several months of data disallow reasonable QOQ comparisons. We also question the assumptions that are used to calculate VONB margins - which are somehow at record levels during a more challenging interest rate environment. Both factors – along with deferred acquisition cost (DAC) accounting  at AIA - suggest that the new CEO is pushing the envelope in a slow growth environment (especially in…

* Unresolved Accounting Questions: A recently changed FYE to December coupled with a failure to disclose several months of data disallow reasonable QOQ comparisons. We also question the assumptions that are used to calculate VONB margins - which are somehow at record levels during a more challenging interest rate environment. Both factors – along with deferred acquisition cost (DAC) accounting  at AIA - suggest that the new CEO is pushing the envelope in a slow growth environment (especially in…

AIA – Change in FYE Leads to Additional Growth Questions

* Pension Reform/Foreign Ownership Reforms: Whilst reform has been anticipated for well over a decade, the initial market reaction suggests this should be a long-term boon for the mainland Chinese life insurance sector.  China Life (2628.HK) has the most exposure to the nation’s life &amp; pensions industry and is the largest purveyor of pension products.  * Not So Fast: Growth prospects are exciting, but the fact is that the mainland Chinese insurance sector in aggregate has a very questionable…

* Pension Reform/Foreign Ownership Reforms: Whilst reform has been anticipated for well over a decade, the initial market reaction suggests this should be a long-term boon for the mainland Chinese life insurance sector.  China Life (2628.HK) has the most exposure to the nation’s life &amp; pensions industry and is the largest purveyor of pension products.  * Not So Fast: Growth prospects are exciting, but the fact is that the mainland Chinese insurance sector in aggregate has a very questionable…

AIA Group Ltd. – Risk & Reward of Chinese Insurance Reforms

Hong Kong

AIA Group Limited offers insurance and financial services. The Company writes life insurance for individuals, businesses, accident, and health insurance, as well as retirement planning and wealth management services.

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AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)

Global Equity Markets Overview

Over the past several weeks we have outlined the case for our increasingly bullish outlook, noting that market internals remain favorable and...

Vermilion Research

Money Matters: Chinese Financial System Opening Up- The Chance of a Lifetime?

A recent Bloomberg article titled "China's about to give global finance the chance of a lifetime" made me smile. In the article Bloomberg predicts...

Stewart Paterson

Ping An Good Doctor: Competition Ratcheting up the Pressure

Ping An Healthcare And Techn (1833 HK)/PAHTG's IPO turned out to be a damp squib and the shares are currently trading below its IPO price. Press...

Arun George

AIA – Change in FYE Leads to Additional Growth Questions

* Unresolved Accounting Questions: A recently changed FYE to December coupled with a failure to disclose several months of data disallow reasonable...

Thomas J. Monaco

AIA Group Ltd. – Risk & Reward of Chinese Insurance Reforms

* Pension Reform/Foreign Ownership Reforms: Whilst reform has been anticipated for well over a decade, the initial market reaction suggests this...

Thomas J. Monaco

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