HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Aier Eye Hospital Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Licensing-Out deals of Chinese pharmaceutical assets are indeed significant milestones, but we should not exaggerate its significance. The product strength itself/subsequent progress are the true sources of clinical benefits/commercial value.</li>
<li>In the field of weight loss drugs, first-mover advantage may not be that obvious. The possibility of latecomers to disrupt first-mover would not be that low or time-consuming.</li>
<li>For Aier, 23Q4 results could show an obvious rebound, leading to relatively high growth in 2023 full year. However, Aier’s problems are still there, which means Aier is not undervalued.</li>
</ul>


Licensing-Out deals of Chinese pharmaceutical assets are indeed significant milestones, but we should not exaggerate its significance. The product strength itself/subsequent progress are the true sources of clinical benefits/commercial value.
In the field of weight loss drugs, first-mover advantage may not be that obvious. The possibility of latecomers to disrupt first-mover would not be that low or time-consuming.
For Aier, 23Q4 results could show an obvious rebound, leading to relatively high growth in 2023 full year. However, Aier’s problems are still there, which means Aier is not undervalued.


China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.31)- Milestone of Chinese Pharmaceutical Assets, Weight Loss Drug, Aier

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Though Sentiment Fragile for Both.</li>
<li>Energy sector shows signs of a turnaround from long-term decline, whilst Financials remain unloved by China investors.</li>
<li>Real Estate allocations have hit record lows, with average holdings at just 2.93%, while Consumer Discretionary sector approaches all-time highs.</li>
</ul>


Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Though Sentiment Fragile for Both.
Energy sector shows signs of a turnaround from long-term decline, whilst Financials remain unloved by China investors.
Real Estate allocations have hit record lows, with average holdings at just 2.93%, while Consumer Discretionary sector approaches all-time highs.


Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Cloudbreak Pharma / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Cloudbreak re-filed for a Hong Kong listing in December 2024 to raise at least USD 100 million.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at updates to its product lines. The progress of core products is on track while there are significant delays observed for other products.</li>
<li>We have a negative readthrough from the leading competitor of its core product.</li>
</ul>


Cloudbreak re-filed for a Hong Kong listing in December 2024 to raise at least USD 100 million.
In this note, we look at updates to its product lines. The progress of core products is on track while there are significant delays observed for other products.
We have a negative readthrough from the leading competitor of its core product.


Cloudbreak 拨康视云 IPO: Negative Readthrough from Underperforming Market Leader

Event-Driven

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Fosun Pharma is just “a platform” and its performance mainly relies on the contributions of subsidiaries. However, such investment-driven business model has led to the current performance difficulties.</li>
<li>Although the motivation/underlying logic for Fosun Pharma to privatize Henlius are solid, we don’t know how this privatization ranks in terms of strategic significance of capital operations within Fosun's system.</li>
<li>If, for example, Fosun Pharma finds more important acquisitions/capital expenditures, the priority of Henlius’ privatization could fall. So, we think if it takes too long, there may be more uncertainties.</li>
</ul>


Fosun Pharma is just “a platform” and its performance mainly relies on the contributions of subsidiaries. However, such investment-driven business model has led to the current performance difficulties.
Although the motivation/underlying logic for Fosun Pharma to privatize Henlius are solid, we don’t know how this privatization ranks in terms of strategic significance of capital operations within Fosun's system.
If, for example, Fosun Pharma finds more important acquisitions/capital expenditures, the priority of Henlius’ privatization could fall. So, we think if it takes too long, there may be more uncertainties.


Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196.HK) - Performance Pain Points and Henlius’ Privatization Outlook

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China healthcare can be mainly divided into the following segments: pharmaceuticals, medical devices, medical services, To B Supply Chain. Investment logic and business characteristics in these fields are completely different.</li>
<li>“High standardization+low dependence on doctors” help pharmaceuticals gain a more favorable commercial value than medical devices in distribution process. Profit margin/cross-regional expansion capability of medical services have always been questioned.</li>
<li>The business characteristics of “To B supply chain” indicate strong cyclical characteristics due to supply rigidity and demand fluctuations, which are easily affected by changes in demand trends.</li>
</ul>


China healthcare can be mainly divided into the following segments: pharmaceuticals, medical devices, medical services, To B Supply Chain. Investment logic and business characteristics in these fields are completely different.
“High standardization+low dependence on doctors” help pharmaceuticals gain a more favorable commercial value than medical devices in distribution process. Profit margin/cross-regional expansion capability of medical services have always been questioned.
The business characteristics of “To B supply chain” indicate strong cyclical characteristics due to supply rigidity and demand fluctuations, which are easily affected by changes in demand trends.


The “Game Rule” of China Healthcare - Pharmaceuticals Vs Medical Devices Vs Medical Services

China

Aier Eye Hospital Group Co., Ltd provides ophthalmological services.  The Company's services include ophthalmological diagnosis and treatments.

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Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH)

China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.31)- Milestone of Chinese Pharmaceutical Assets, Weight Loss Drug, Aier

Chinese pharmaceutical companies have highly integrated into global market. For weight loss drug, the possibility of latecomers to disrupt first...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Macro: Sector Positioning Update

Sector positioning among active China Funds. Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Energy shows signs of a turnaround, whilst...

Steven Holden

Cloudbreak 拨康视云 IPO: Negative Readthrough from Underperforming Market Leader

Cloudbreak re-files for Hong Kong listing to raise $100M, core product progress on track but delays in other products, negative readthrough from...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196.HK) - Performance Pain Points and Henlius’ Privatization Outlook

Fosun Pharma's investment-driven business model relies heavily on subsidiaries.Privatization of Henlius may face uncertainties if not prioritized...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The “Game Rule” of China Healthcare - Pharmaceuticals Vs Medical Devices Vs Medical Services

China healthcare has distinct segments with different investment logic/characteristics.The pecking order is drugs>medical device>medical...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.31)- Milestone of Chinese Pharmaceutical Assets, Weight Loss Drug, Aier

Chinese pharmaceutical companies have highly integrated into global market. For weight loss drug, the possibility of latecomers to disrupt first...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Macro: Sector Positioning Update

Sector positioning among active China Funds. Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Energy shows signs of a turnaround, whilst...

Steven Holden

Cloudbreak 拨康视云 IPO: Negative Readthrough from Underperforming Market Leader

​Cloudbreak re-files for Hong Kong listing to raise $100M, core product progress on track but delays in other products, negative readthrough from...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196.HK) - Performance Pain Points and Henlius’ Privatization Outlook

​Fosun Pharma's investment-driven business model relies heavily on subsidiaries.Privatization of Henlius may face uncertainties if not prioritized...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The “Game Rule” of China Healthcare - Pharmaceuticals Vs Medical Devices Vs Medical Services

​China healthcare has distinct segments with different investment logic/characteristics.The pecking order is drugs>medical device>medical...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Cloudbreak re-files for Hong Kong listing to raise $100M, core product progress on track but delays in other products, negative readthrough from...

Fosun Pharma's investment-driven business model relies heavily on subsidiaries.Privatization of Henlius may face uncertainties if not prioritized...

China healthcare has distinct segments with different investment logic/characteristics.The pecking order is drugs>medical device>medical...