HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Weight loss and Alzheimer's disease (AD) have been ranked among the top indications in the pharmaceutical history and are undeniable opportunities, but they are expected to generate different investment returns.</li>
<li>We have noticed that some companies have started developing GLP-1 gene therapy. We would be cautious about this.</li>
<li>Without strong fundamentals but is eager to go public on A-share market, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aim-vaccine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33778:1" rel="noopener">AIM Vaccine (6660 HK) </a>seems more enthusiastic about capital operations to make quick money.We consider this company risky.</li>
</ul>


Weight loss and Alzheimer's disease (AD) have been ranked among the top indications in the pharmaceutical history and are undeniable opportunities, but they are expected to generate different investment returns.
We have noticed that some companies have started developing GLP-1 gene therapy. We would be cautious about this.
Without strong fundamentals but is eager to go public on A-share market, AIM Vaccine (6660 HK) seems more enthusiastic about capital operations to make quick money.We consider this company risky.


China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.20)-Investment Returns on Weight Loss/AD,GLP-1 Gene Therapy,AIM Vaccine

<ul>
<li>Weight loss drug business has indeed significantly alleviated concerns about overcapacity issue in those leading CDMOs, but they do not have such a strong driving force on CROs.</li>
<li>The last straw that hits an industry is often not due to the disappearance of demographic dividends/declining demand/poor financial performance of companies, etc., but rather to policy-guided capital flows.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3d-medicines-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33790:1" rel="noopener">3D Medicines (1244 HK)</a> can be said a typical negative example in biopharmaceutical industry, and it is easy to be “manipulated”. We recommend investors stay away from such high-risk company.</li>
</ul>


Weight loss drug business has indeed significantly alleviated concerns about overcapacity issue in those leading CDMOs, but they do not have such a strong driving force on CROs.
The last straw that hits an industry is often not due to the disappearance of demographic dividends/declining demand/poor financial performance of companies, etc., but rather to policy-guided capital flows.

3D Medicines (1244 HK) can be said a typical negative example in biopharmaceutical industry, and it is easy to be “manipulated”. We recommend investors stay away from such high-risk company.


China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.6) - Weight Loss Drug CXO, Policy-Guided Capital Flows, 3D Medicines

<ul>
<li>The 8th national VBP released results, with an average price reduction of 56%. On the whole, the peak period of the impact of VBP on pharmaceutical companies has passed.</li>
<li>VBP document of Chinese patent medicines was released, which would affect a market with scale of RMB300 billion. Enterprises with rich product matrices/new products can better cope with this VBP.</li>
<li>For AIM, we listed several key points. Since the management are more interested in short term capital gains rather than developing a superior portfolio, AIM doesn’t have long-term investment value.</li>
</ul>


The 8th national VBP released results, with an average price reduction of 56%. On the whole, the peak period of the impact of VBP on pharmaceutical companies has passed.
VBP document of Chinese patent medicines was released, which would affect a market with scale of RMB300 billion. Enterprises with rich product matrices/new products can better cope with this VBP.
For AIM, we listed several key points. Since the management are more interested in short term capital gains rather than developing a superior portfolio, AIM doesn’t have long-term investment value.


China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.31) - 8th National VBP Result, Chinese Patent Medicine VBP, AIM Vaccine

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 35 adds and 28 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the March rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 527.</li>
<li>We expect 29 of the 35 inclusions to the HSCI will be added to Stock Connect, while 20 of the 28 HSCI deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
<li>19 stocks could be deleted from Stock Connect only since their average market cap has dropped below HK$5bn- unless the new threshold of HK$4bn is approved in the next week.</li>
</ul>


There are 35 adds and 28 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the March rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 527.
We expect 29 of the 35 inclusions to the HSCI will be added to Stock Connect, while 20 of the 28 HSCI deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.
19 stocks could be deleted from Stock Connect only since their average market cap has dropped below HK$5bn- unless the new threshold of HK$4bn is approved in the next week.


HSCI Index Rebalance: 35 Adds, 28 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

Brilliance China Automotive / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We see 44 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 19 potential deletes (on market cap, liquidity and suspension) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.</li>
<li>We expect 37 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 37 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only. </li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 44 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 19 potential deletes (on market cap, liquidity and suspension) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.
We expect 37 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 37 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only. 
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: A Lot of Change

China

AIM Vaccine Co., Ltd. manufactures and distributes vaccines. The Company produces recombinant hepatitis b vaccines, freeze dried human rabies vaccines, inactivated hepatitis a vaccines, live attenuated parotitis vaccines, and others. AIM Vaccine also operates import and export businesses.

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AIM Vaccine (6660 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.20)-Investment Returns on Weight Loss/AD,GLP-1 Gene Therapy,AIM Vaccine

Weight loss and Alzheimer's disease (AD) would generate different investment returns.We're conservative about the outlook of GLP-1 gene therapy.We...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.6) - Weight Loss Drug CXO, Policy-Guided Capital Flows, 3D Medicines

Weight loss drug business would indeed bring opportunity to CDMO, but not CRO. Investors may need to pay attention to policy-guided capital...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.31) - 8th National VBP Result, Chinese Patent Medicine VBP, AIM Vaccine

The 8th national VBP released results.The impact of VBP on companies is decreasing. Chinese patent medicine VBP is coming, but some companies can...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HSCI Index Rebalance: 35 Adds, 28 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

There are 35 adds & 28 deletes for the HSCI in March leading to 29 adds & 20 deletes for Stock Connect. 19 index constituents could be dropped from...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: A Lot of Change

We forecast 44 adds/19 deletes for the HSCI in March leading to 37 adds/deletes for Southbound Stock Connect. There could be more Connect changes...

Brian Freitas

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