HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The companies that suffered exchange losses in FY23 due to Rmb depreciation will now benefit from potential Rmb appreciation in 2H24 and FY25. Meanwhile, gainers will become losers. </li>
<li>The beneficiaries are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (753 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen International (152 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-southern-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1078:1" rel="noopener">China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinjiang-goldwind-science-technology-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10112:1" rel="noopener">Xinjiang Goldwind (2208 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-eastern-airlines-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1079:1" rel="noopener">China Eastern Airlines (670 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-east-education-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27843:1" rel="noopener">China East Education (667 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-communications-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:265:1" rel="noopener">China Communications Construction (1800 HK)</a> may need to book exchange losses (vs. gains in FY23). </li>
</ul>


The companies that suffered exchange losses in FY23 due to Rmb depreciation will now benefit from potential Rmb appreciation in 2H24 and FY25. Meanwhile, gainers will become losers. 
The beneficiaries are Air China Ltd (753 HK), Shenzhen International (152 HK), China Southern Airlines (1055 HK), Xinjiang Goldwind (2208 HK), and China Eastern Airlines (670 HK). 

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK), China East Education (667 HK), and China Communications Construction (1800 HK) may need to book exchange losses (vs. gains in FY23). 


China Strategy: Re-Assessing the Rmb Exchange Impacts

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 145 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 111.9% as of Sep 6th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 1.3ppt week-on-week, led by communication services, consumer discretionary, information technology and offset by real estate, financials.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Tourism, Guotai Junan Securities, Hangzhou Tiger, Shanghai Pharma, GAC Group, Haitong Securities.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 145 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 111.9% as of Sep 6th.
The average A-H premium changed by 1.3ppt week-on-week, led by communication services, consumer discretionary, information technology and offset by real estate, financials.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Tourism, Guotai Junan Securities, Hangzhou Tiger, Shanghai Pharma, GAC Group, Haitong Securities.


A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 6th): China Tourism, Guotai Junan Securities, Tigermed, Shanghai Pharma

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Media rife with narrative of booming inbound foreign tourism to China</li>
<li>But the numbers are well below historical highs, and climbing up from low base</li>
<li>Chinese tourists, not foreign, determine strength of Chinese tourism recovery</li>
</ul>


Media rife with narrative of booming inbound foreign tourism to China
But the numbers are well below historical highs, and climbing up from low base
Chinese tourists, not foreign, determine strength of Chinese tourism recovery


Chinese Inbound Foreign Tourist Arrivals Up 153% Y/Y in H124?! Much Ado About (Almost) Nothing

<ul>
<li>Despite slower top-line growth, Trip.com posted firmer margins in Q224</li>
<li>Cash Operating Expenses as a % of Net Revenue fell by around -250 bps Y/Y</li>
<li>Post-Covid, Trip.com has less competition; BUY with target of US$58 per ADS</li>
</ul>


Despite slower top-line growth, Trip.com posted firmer margins in Q224
Cash Operating Expenses as a % of Net Revenue fell by around -250 bps Y/Y
Post-Covid, Trip.com has less competition; BUY with target of US$58 per ADS


Trip.com Q224: Slower Growth | But Higher Margins | Competition Has Eased | BUY with US$58 Target

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Coral sand / In Depth: Ambiguous reef protection laws leave China’s coral sand traders high and dry</li><li>Macao /: Macao’s former top judge announces leadership candidacy</li><li>Investment banks /: Former Haitong executive in crime probe arrested after fleeing to Laos</li></ul>

Coral sand / In Depth: Ambiguous reef protection laws leave China’s coral sand traders high and dryMacao /: Macao’s former top judge announces leadership candidacyInvestment banks /: Former Haitong executive in crime probe arrested after fleeing to Laos

CX Daily: Ambiguous Reef Protection Laws Leave China’s Coral Sand Traders High and Dry 

China

Air China Limited provides passenger, cargo, and airline-related services in China.  The Company is primarily based in Beijing and a major hub for domestic and international air transportation.  Air China's airline-related services include aircraft maintenance, repair, overhaul service, ground services, and in-flight catering services.

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Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK)

China Strategy: Re-Assessing the Rmb Exchange Impacts

With the US kick-starting the lower interest rate cycle with a 50bp cut overnight and indicated an expectation of an aggregate further 50bp cut in...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 6th): China Tourism, Guotai Junan Securities, Tigermed, Shanghai Pharma

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for China Tourism, Guotai Junan Securities, Hangzhou Tiger,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Chinese Inbound Foreign Tourist Arrivals Up 153% Y/Y in H124?! Much Ado About (Almost) Nothing

Yes, foreign inbound travel to China has shown strong growth so far in 2024, but the numbers are rising from a very low base, and ultimately matter...

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com Q224: Slower Growth | But Higher Margins | Competition Has Eased | BUY with US$58 Target

Trip.com posted slower revenue growth in Q2, but margins improved as the company expertly managed operating expenses. Post-Covid, Trip.com's...

Tracking Traffic

CX Daily: Ambiguous Reef Protection Laws Leave China’s Coral Sand Traders High and Dry

Coral sand / In Depth: Ambiguous reef protection laws leave China’s coral sand traders high and dry In December 2021, with the Covid-19 pandemic...

Caixin Global

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